Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I am honestly more annoyed by small amounts than nothing at all. For that reason I'm gonna sit the sidelines and let you boys enjoy your storm. Crazy weather today in Louisiana to look into! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Nut, it seems that you've become somewhat of a celebrity in the MA forum today. They are brutal. I'm a rocks throw away from MD but I stay away. All good man. I enjoy the convo and offer what I know and learn as I go. It's a forum...not a plank. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Gotten ridiculously foggy downtown HBG now. I guess that warm air is pushing in pretty quickly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: I'm pretty excited that my forecast is in line with Eric. I'm more detailed with regard to local outlooks into MD since it's where I'm from, but otherwise I'm in lock step. Nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Some radio station here, I don't know which one as it's on in our building's bathrooms, just said it'll be too warm and the roads will be perfectly fine Thursday so it won't be any inconvenience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I'm pretty excited that my forecast is in line with Eric. I'm more detailed with regard to local outlooks into MD since it's where I'm from, but otherwise I'm in lock step. Nice to see Yea I feel good for a 3-4 incher at least unless more sleet comes in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I want to know what Mike (MAG) has to say. I snow when he says I snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 43 minutes ago, canderson said: Some radio station here, I don't know which one as it's on in our building's bathrooms, just said it'll be too warm and the roads will be perfectly fine Thursday so it won't be any inconvenience. That has Brett Thackara written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Meltdown in the mid atlantic forum today over the distinct possibility of not getting snow. Meltdown in the New York City thread and they will be getting snow. Thank God for this special little place in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: That has Brett Thackara written all over it. Exactly my thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 42 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: I want to know what Mike (MAG) has to say. I snow when he says I snow. MAG will likely be chiming in this evening. I like to hear his thoughts too. You know what they say, put 2 forecasters in a room and you'll get 3 different forecasts lol. I like your spot right now for a good heavy, wet snow. I'll make a call tomorrow. I'll be working overnights on Thursday, so I'll be up already watching it all fall down. At least I hope so down here. Little more questionable here, but good for NMD on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 32 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Meltdown in the mid atlantic forum today over the distinct possibility of not getting snow. Meltdown in the New York City thread and they will be getting snow. Thank God for this special little place in here. What else is new caught in the middle this time unfortunately. I've already given my two cents on it over the years I was in PA, so...yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 We have had the models pretty much in agreement today. Just wondering how much further east the models are gonna move. I guess we will see if there are any surprises tonight on the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: I want to know what Mike (MAG) has to say. I snow when he says I snow. Well, models have seemed to have taken a more decisive shift to focusing the heavy snow threat in the southern half of PA today, and making it quite a formidable snow threat as the GFS and Canadian have joined the Euro/NAM with having a deeper low. 18z RGEM has a bomb. Did notice GFS and esp NAM at 18z kind of backed their heavy precip axis southeast a bit while maintaining most of the overall extent they had at 12z. We shall see what the 0z has to say. Like I said the other day, the Mid-Atl region probably has more of a thread the needle situation than we do. The low had to be pretty deep and the cold needs time to press down that far. Up here, we should be able to establish cold quick enough to minimize p-type issues..although I think the LSV counties from the turnpike south still aren't out of the woods to losing some QPF to rain/transition. But overall, the track is a pretty nice one for C-PA/Sus Valley snow currently. This looks to be of the hard hitting 6-8 hour variety storm. So the heavier rates should help cool the column and get accumulating snow quickly on those roadways and ground that just seems to never cool down enough to allow for such things (eyeroll). I'll probably talk some numbers after I see 0z later. CTP watch placement looks pretty good for now (remember Sus Valley criteria is now 5"). Still think best snow stays under I-80 (I-84 NE PA) but I've seen enough from the models today to acknowledge that the north central (IPT region) should see accumulating snow..potentially of the advisory variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Mehhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Thanks for awesome breakdown though mag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: Meltdown in the mid atlantic forum today over the distinct possibility of not getting snow. Meltdown in the New York City thread and they will be getting snow. Thank God for this special little place in here. The only meltdown here will be from me since I have to play in that crap with an 18 wheeler...lol Or should I say fml... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 40 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Well, models have seemed to have taken a more decisive shift to focusing the heavy snow threat in the southern half of PA today, and making it quite a formidable snow threat as the GFS and Canadian have joined the Euro/NAM with having a deeper low. 18z RGEM has a bomb. Did notice GFS and esp NAM at 18z kind of backed their heavy precip axis southeast a bit while maintaining most of the overall extent they had at 12z. We shall see what the 0z has to say. Like I said the other day, the Mid-Atl region probably has more of a thread the needle situation than we do. The low had to be pretty deep and the cold needs time to press down that far. Up here, we should be able to establish cold quick enough to minimize p-type issues..although I think the LSV counties from the turnpike south still aren't out of the woods to losing some QPF to rain/transition. But overall, the track is a pretty nice one for C-PA/Sus Valley snow currently. This looks to be of the hard hitting 6-8 hour variety storm. So the heavier rates should help cool the column and get accumulating snow quickly on those roadways and ground that just seems to never cool down enough to allow for such things (eyeroll). I'll probably talk some numbers after I see 0z later. CTP watch placement looks pretty good for now (remember Sus Valley criteria is now 5"). Still think best snow stays under I-80 (I-84 NE PA) but I've seen enough from the models today to acknowledge that the north central (IPT region) should see accumulating snow..potentially of the advisory variety. Good stuff. I agree with everything. I mentioned that 700'+ will be the deciding factor for areas into MD which makes the PA line a good place to be in the lower tier. With decent cyclogenesis, eastern portion of the state should transition to pretty robust snow. I was a bit skeptical earlier on anywhere east of Susquehanna, but with bombing low and location of greatest lift from Gettysburg on east, that ship has sailed. Told my sister who lives near Schwenksville that she could get hit hard. She hasn't heard a word. People will def be caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Thanks much MillvilleWx and MAG. Awesome stuff from both of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Thanks much MillvilleWx and MAG. Awesome stuff from both of you! Second that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Southern tier could have initial switchover issues, northern tier fringes, this sounds like a 22/322 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Thanks much MillvilleWx and MAG. Awesome stuff from both of you! and keep us update as you see fit. will be interesting to see what the 0z's have in store, as were far enough out for a few tweaks, that will make....or break for some. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Boy I wish I lived in central NH. 45" in 10 days....sign my @ss up. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I've never seen this NWS product before but it seems pretty cool: http://www.weather.gov/btv/winterseverity?id=PHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 46 minutes ago, Jmister said: I've never seen this NWS product before but it seems pretty cool: http://www.weather.gov/btv/winterseverity?id=PHI Nice Link there 11 pics/pages Mag and Millville thanks for the updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Looks like some our southern boys could get hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lte5000 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Quite the temperature difference tonight! 38 degrees here in Myerstown, while it's in the 60s near the Maryland border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, lte5000 said: Quite the temperature difference tonight! 38 degrees here in Myerstown, while it's in the 60s near the Maryland border. No doubt. At one point earlier this eve there was a 19 temp difference 6 miles apart in Adams County ( Cashtown to Fairfield) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, pawatch said: Looks like some our southern boys could get hit. Also could strike the Scranton/WB area pretty squarely and that has been a region that has had fringe problems for several seasons going it seems. NortheastPAwx looks pretty good either there or NYC where he is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lte5000 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: No doubt. At one point earlier this eve there was a 19 temp difference 6 miles apart in Adams County ( Cashtown to Fairfield) Wow, quite the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Much better NAM run after it was trending SE and drier all day... should make pretty much this whole forum happy. 6"+ for all with the Lehigh Valley really getting smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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