sauss06 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Nah you guys will rock with banding and stuff, in my experience it's all about the rates. better get your boots out Tommy!!! and put some wax on the runners! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 My experience is elevation plays a big role on accumulation down this way. Areas around south mountain that switch earlier stand the best chance of seeing the higher snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 53 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Agreed. Going from rain to snow south of the TP is tough. Notoriously eats QPF as rain. I'd cut the 4K NAM totals in half, especially south of the TP and roll with that. Is the 4k your Mezo model of choice? Higher res, better themal, qpf fields?? What say you? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Is the 4k your Mezo model of choice? Higher res, better themal, qpf fields?? What say you? Nut Ehh, 4K has a tendency to do some funky stuff with dynamics occasionally. Thermally, it tends to cool things off too quickly, but for clouds/precip shield it tends to be my short term go to. Areas that get under more intense bands will cool better and thus do better with amounts. At the upper levels at least, that area looks to be from SC PA up into New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Ehh, 4K has a tendency to do some funky stuff with dynamics occasionally. Thermally, it tends to cool things off too quickly, but for clouds/precip shield it tends to be my short term go to. Areas that get under more intense bands will cool better and thus do better with amounts. At the upper levels at least, that area looks to be from SC PA up into New England Thanks Matt. Good luck w/ your forecast..... for Lancaster :). Ridin the line baby....ridin the line. Gotta smell the rain for the best snow....right? Im trying to wish this one in down here, but expect todays glory to be tomorrows gloom down here. Hope i'm wrong. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, sauss06 said: better get your boots out Tommy!!! and put some wax on the runners! We will see lol, honestly want to see pasnownut and maytown get a good hit, they love this stuff! I figure if I act more interested in snow nut will give severe a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Thanks Matt. Good luck w/ your forecast..... for Lancaster :). Ridin the line baby....ridin the line. Gotta smell the rain for the best snow....right? Im trying to wish this one in down here, but expect todays glory to be tomorrows gloom down here. Hope i'm wrong. Nut Just now, Wmsptwx said: We will see lol, honestly want to see pasnownut and maytown get a good hit, they love this stuff! I figure if I act more interested in snow nut will give severe a chance. They are infectious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: We will see lol, honestly want to see pasnownut and maytown get a good hit, they love this stuff! I figure if I act more interested in snow nut will give severe a chance. dont push it.... I'm in need of a good therapist from this "winter". we'll see how good my Doc is...i'll get back to ya. Nut. Full disclosure...i' like me a good thunderstorm. Just not a fan of destructiive storms. Guess I'm a sissy at heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Well can't blame you there man, I don't like property destruction either. Either way, good luck rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: Nah you guys will rock with banding and stuff, in my experience it's all about the rates. No...well, maybe. I agree in principle about getting under good banding, but you need to understand that we do NOT do changeovers well down here. Very, very rarely do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: No...well, maybe. I agree in principle about getting under good banding, but you need to understand that we do NOT do changeovers well down here. Very, very rarely do... what he said. Ukie coming in tucked. can I borrow someones fingernails to bite...? Mine are gone. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Looking at guidance, I think the areas from Franklin over to Central York should be okay for the southern tier of the sub-forum. I think the questions arise once toward the Susquehanna, but higher elevation areas will certainly get the benefit. I want to put out a general forecast for the southern tier, but I'll hold off for now. At this point, I see 2-5" with local up to 8" being the call from MD Line to the NE. Snow consistency will be heavy wet paste, so areas with snow will be picturesque Thursday morning. Edit: Euro continues my thinking and even upped the ante, but with a marginal setup, I don't see myself pulling the trigger on the higher totals. Definitely going to be a huge paste bomb for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Seriously this has massive bust written all over it. Good luck to the Mets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, canderson said: Seriously this has massive bust written all over it. Good luck to the Mets! This is very true...a few extra hours of liquid instead of white could mean the difference between 2" and 6" (or more) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Nut, it seems that you've become somewhat of a celebrity in the MA forum today. They are brutal. I'm a rocks throw away from MD but I stay away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The EURO looked like a classic Southern Tier-does-better setup. The only difference is the cutoff is far less sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Me and Williamsport both in the 2"-5" range, though we get there differently. Sauss, Canderson, and many other from the "mid state" in the 4"-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 your ears must have been ringing. I text my daughter a little bit ago and ask her what Horst was saying. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 winter storm watch issued for Sullivan-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne counties issued by NWS Binghamton-- we are in the 5 to 8 inch range... Rick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Well, would you take a look at that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Model consensus looks pretty good right now. Hope it doesn't keep sliding any more south, but you Lehigh Valley people definitely deserve a good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, skiier04 said: Model consensus looks pretty good right now. Hope it doesn't keep sliding any more south, but you Lehigh Valley people definitely deserve a good one! Just Saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Not into this one, been here done that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, 2001kx said: Lol it's generous for up here, we got half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Man, what a temperature difference. 45 in Harrisburg, pushing 60 just south of York, 25 miles away, and pushing 70 in the northwest suburbs of Baltimore, 50 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Hourly forecast has Harrisburg at 60 between 8-10 PMSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, 2001kx said: Just Saying Part of me is definitely jealous, just trying to keep things positive in here. Maybe someday we will get a 6" storm here again. Still, I'll take 2-4, especially since this was looking like a non-event not too long ago. And pattern is looking good for the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, skiier04 said: Part of me is definitely jealous, just trying to keep things positive in here. Maybe someday we will get a 6" storm here again. Still, I'll take 2-4, especially since this was looking like a non-event not too long ago. And pattern is looking good for the rest of the month. Im just having a little fun with ya!! Yep would be thrilled with a few inches here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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