Central PA - February 2017

[canderson]

Anyone know how to find the longest period in January above freezing for MDT? 

We are looking directly at >140 hours above 32. 

[Voyager]

15 hours ago, canderson said:

Liking the new job?

Yes and no.

I like driving the newer Kenworth, but being away from home gets old kind of quick. There is no comparison to waking up in the morning in your own bed at home and walking down the hall to go to the bathroom, and getting a cup of coffee in your own kitchen. The pay is more erratic as it's based on miles run and can fluctuate greatly from week to week. And in the case of this week, not getting a full weekend at home. I have to leave out for North Carolina again Sunday morning.

My wife's close friend's parents own two trucks and run local with them. They are in need of a driver for one of the trucks and called me to see if I was interested in driving one of them. The run is Monday through Friday with full weekends off, and pay pretty well for the area and the job at hand. I'm close to saying yes, but the truck I'd be driving is a mid 1990's Freightliner. It's supposedly well maintained mechanically, but the outward appearance is little bit ragged.

Not sure yet what I want to do

 

[pawatch]

Remember we was watching this last year 

[Blizzard of 93]

The High res 3km & 4km NAM the last couple of runs has indicated a change over to snow for most of CTP for the storm early this week.

The final track & strength of the storm will determine if we get any snow out of this. The best chance will be in the I-99 corridor, especially those locations with elevation. I would still not rule out a messy few inches in the Harrisburg area as the storm wraps up off the coast.

Hopefully this storm track repeats in the next couple of weeks when we have more cold air to work with in the pattern.

[pasnownut]

32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The High res 3km & 4km NAM the last couple of runs has indicated a change over to snow for most of CTP for the storm early this week.

The final track & strength of the storm will determine if we get any snow out of this. The best chance will be in the I-99 corridor, especially those locations with elevation. I would still not rule out a messy few inches in the Harrisburg area as the storm wraps up off the coast.

Hopefully this storm track repeats in the next couple of weeks when we have more cold air to work with in the pattern.

Yeah I'm seeing the 12z still trying to make it happen for Central/NC and points NE.  Lets hope today brings it back for us.  Its a close call for sure.  Id hate to be a forecaster for this one.

Nut

 

[canderson]

4 hours ago, Voyager said:

Yes and no.

I like driving the newer Kenworth, but being away from home gets old kind of quick. There is no comparison to waking up in the morning in your own bed at home and walking down the hall to go to the bathroom, and getting a cup of coffee in your own kitchen. The pay is more erratic as it's based on miles run and can fluctuate greatly from week to week. And in the case of this week, not getting a full weekend at home. I have to leave out for North Carolina again Sunday morning.

My wife's close friend's parents own two trucks and run local with them. They are in need of a driver for one of the trucks and called me to see if I was interested in driving one of them. The run is Monday through Friday with full weekends off, and pay pretty well for the area and the job at hand. I'm close to saying yes, but the truck I'd be driving is a mid 1990's Freightliner. It's supposedly well maintained mechanically, but the outward appearance is little bit ragged.

Not sure yet what I want to do

 

I'd choose weekends at home. And steadier pay.

[Santa Clause]

You da man Sauss, just razzing ya. GFS is legit gully washer over CPA.

[Santa Clause]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The High res 3km & 4km NAM the last couple of runs has indicated a change over to snow for most of CTP for the storm early this week.

The final track & strength of the storm will determine if we get any snow out of this. The best chance will be in the I-99 corridor, especially those locations with elevation. I would still not rule out a messy few inches in the Harrisburg area as the storm wraps up off the coast.

Hopefully this storm track repeats in the next couple of weeks when we have more cold air to work with in the pattern.

Think this one is rain for all here, maybe with exception of 2001. 12z actually looked a touch warmer overall.

[Itstrainingtime]

5 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Think this one is rain for all here, maybe with exception of 2001. 12z actually looked a touch warmer overall.

Mostly agree, though higher elevations north of you probably see some accumulations. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The latest NAM, including the High Res NAM, still is insisting that most of CTP changes over to snow for the early week storm.

[heavy_wx]

The 00z GFS has UNV marginally cold enough for some periods of snow Monday afternoon to Monday night.

[MAG5035]

0z Euro definitely is back to flirting with the all out wet snow bomb solution for a large portion of central PA. 42 and 48hr are the two primary frames for the most precip. 42hrs have 850 and 925mb temps near or below 0 over most of the state, with -2 to -4ºC 850 temps in a good majority of PA except SE PA. 48hr has 925mb temps near to slightly below zero over most of the state while sub zero 850 temps reside in the western and central thirds (also NE PA). I had looked at these thermal layers and expected to see a pretty decent explosion of accums on the snow map in a good majority of our subforum but it was still confining 3"+ to the north central with an inch or so in the central counties including the Laurels and I-99 corridor. Really close.. surface temps are certainly marginal with the central counties being the only places in the 32ºF-35ºF range per the Euro. For snow lovers this really is a shame that we didn't have at least a typical cold air mass in place throughout the northeast and eastern Canada for this systems's arrival. Wouldn't have even needed anything impressive either. The 850mb easterly flow is progged at 4-6 st dev statewide from hr 36-48. That kind of a fetch coupled with the very favorable PA track is a hallmark of what likely would have been a KU type snowstorm for at least the interior northern Mid-Atl/NE. 

Overall the models have went back to being somewhat more favorable for a rain to snow solution in the central counties and north central/NE. The 03 SREF ensemble have pretty uniform ~3" means over a lot of the central stations (AOO,UNV,FIG,JST).. with a few to several warning level members but a half decent clustering in that 2-4 range. Given the QPF numbers, I have to like the Laurels as a region that could see a pretty significant event...especially getting above 1800ft. Same goes for the north-central region. Not sure about the adjacent central mountains region that includes AOO/UNV/IPT. I would be pretty bullish on a healthy changeover snow (advisory variety) with the colder Euro thermals. The GFS and Canadian type solutions looked more like a sloppy inch or so type deal. Still think Sus Valley will stay primarily rain, with perhaps a bit of a changeover. The problem is the strong easterly low level jet and the fact that we're already working with a highly marginal airmass. It seems the 925 and surface levels are layers that will have the most trouble cooling to at or near freezing. There's also the rain aspect. Despite whatever form of precipitation falls, this will likely be a major relief to our dry Sus Valley areas...lot's of moisture. 

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP has a great Forecast Discussion posted this morning that goes into great detail for all aspects of this storm that I encourage everyone to check out.

The I-99 corridor leading looks to be in great shape for a change over to several inches of snow. Further east, the Susq. Valley still stands the chance to get in on a few inches if all goes well with the final storm track.

Most of the models are trending colder with 850 temps & if precip rates are good, it could be very interesting to watch this unfold.

Let's see if the 12z models continue to trend in the right direction?

[pasnownut]

25 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP has a great Forecast Discussion posted this morning that goes into great detail for all aspects of this storm that I encourage everyone to check out.

The I-99 corridor leading looks to be in great shape for a change over to several inches of snow. Further east, the Susq. Valley still stands the chance to get in on a few inches if all goes well with the final storm track.

Most of the models are trending colder with 850 temps & if precip rates are good, it could be very interesting to watch this unfold.

Let's see if the 12z models continue to trend in the right direction?

I have to say that this one really has been like watching a tennis match w/ all the back and forth.  Its surely been a different storm, as with most decent ones, we see em at 10 days, lose em in the mid range, and then they find there way home inside 24 to 36.  This one has never really been lost, its just struggled w/ marginal dynamics, and as been seen with some other storms this year, is actually trending colder in the final 36.  Cold enough for areas i thought would do best in these types, true central pa and points N and E.  I'd love to be at the cabin for this one.  Not sure if enough for snowmobiles, but if the NAM's verify (looking at short range models from here out on this one), we may have a plowable....possibly more deal in northern tier counties (and yes, w/ NAM I divide by 2 for totals).  I'm not sold on laurels yet, but with elevation, they should be ok w/ dynamic cooling.

Best of luck to everyone.  I'm out on this one, so I'm pulling for everyone.

Nut

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z NAM products still have most of CTP changing to snow, with this run showing more snow than prior runs in western sections of the LSV. The Harrisburg area on the NAM still Has a couple of inches. The I-99 corridor still looks to have the best chance for several inches of snow.

[Santa Clause]

NWS not impressed, but probably shouldn't be. Elevation in northern tier may sneak out an advisory event. 

[MAG5035]

6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP has a great Forecast Discussion posted this morning that goes into great detail for all aspects of this storm that I encourage everyone to check out.

The I-99 corridor leading looks to be in great shape for a change over to several inches of snow. Further east, the Susq. Valley still stands the chance to get in on a few inches if all goes well with the final storm track.

Most of the models are trending colder with 850 temps & if precip rates are good, it could be very interesting to watch this unfold.

Let's see if the 12z models continue to trend in the right direction?

I try to be careful with these "top-down" changeover situations. This is especially the case with such a marginal antecedent airmass and not really a lot of cold air for this storm to pull down once the low gets to the coast and starts changing wind direction both aloft and at the surface to a more northeasterly trajectory. I've seen the Dec 92 nor'easter thrown around by the likes of JB as a similar event and looking at the reanalysis maps on that storm even that one had colder air to play with than this one does. That comparison is particularly good though for the NJ/LI coasts.. this looks like a significant coastal erosion/flooding event.  

We're almost purely on dynamics to make this happen.. and fortunately we're gonna have it with a very strong low pressure and a very favorable track. I still favor heavily on north-central and Laurels. The eastern most ridges of the Laurel's above 1800-2k feet strike me as an area that could easily see 6"+ as well as some of the higher north-central mountains. The central ridge and valley region (AOO/UNV/IPT and somewhat east of there) could go either way with getting a few to several inches.. or both. Mountains like Tussey and the Seven Mountains region east of State College go above 2200'. Still don't think the Sus Valley sees much. That screaming low level jet at 850 (and 925) would seem to me a detriment without the cold airmass to start for that region as the flow is nearly due easterly off the Atlantic, not to mention fairly warm surface temps. Precip intensity is going to be important to collapse the column and initiate that changeover.  

 

[MAG5035]

23 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

NWS not impressed, but probably shouldn't be. Elevation in northern tier may sneak out an advisory event. 

Not advocating one scenario or the other since this is a very tough and marginal setup, but seriously... did you read the NWS discussion from this morning? That's about as excited as I've ever seen that forecaster get for events around here.

Per NWS..

Previous...
* Surface low taking a very favorable track for winter storm.
* Monster easterly jet 60-75 kts forecast.
* Number of SREF/GEFS plumes showing snow is on the increase.
* Dynamic cooling under intense forcing will bring a rain to
  snow scenario.
* Higher elevations under most threat for significant snow.
* Central ridge-valley areas not out of the woods.
* ECMWF/GFS develop steep mid level lapse rates...thunder snow?

Monday will be the most complicated and active day of the
forecast period. In a normal winter with normal cold air in
place, the expected track of a deep low up along or just off the
coast would be cause for joy among snow crows. But we are
abnormally mild ahead of this storm and that complicates the
forecast enormously.

During the day the models agree in intensifying the easterly
low level jet, as strong as 75 kt in some of the guidance.
SREF/GEFS show this to exceed 6 STD DEV in the anomaly plots.
Not a surprise with such an intense jet, ensembles also show a
high likelihood of more than an inch of QPF over much of
southern and central PA during the day Monday.

The complicating factor will be the amount of dynamic cooling
that is forecast to occur at the height of the storm as strong
warm advection and frontogenetic forcing support a period
intense upward vertical motion Monday morning into the
afternoon.

Initially we will see rain in all locations, but by mid morning
the higher elevations could mix with or change to wet snow that
will continue into the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest
the snow could actually become more than just a higher
elevation threat by mid afternoon with thermal profiles even as
far east as AOO/UNV cooling sufficiently for all snow. If the
next run of models continues this idea of explosive dynamic
cooling as precip increases under the intense forcing, I would
anticipate some sort of headline to become necessary. The threat
is for several inches of heavy wet snow, especially favoring
the higher elevations from the Laurels northward, but possibly
even eastward into the central ridge-valley region of the CWA.

Another concern is the potential for flooding. Target area for
the heaviest rain is across the south central part of the state,
where orographic forcing at nose of powerful easterly low level
jet will play a role. Mean QPF from both SREF and GEFS max out
around 1.5 inches in this region, while FFG/FFH is around 2
inches/6hr. Have to stay alert for locally higher amounts such
as hinted at by the higher resolution NAM. Right now it looks
like a relatively fast moving event so will mention the
possibility of minor flooding in the HWO for this area late
Monday.

It`s all going to make for a busy day for sure.

[Santa Clause]

2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Not advocating one scenario or the other since this is a very tough and marginal setup, but seriously... did you read the NWS discussion from this morning? That's about as excited as I've ever seen that forecaster get for events around here.

Per NWS..

Previous...
* Surface low taking a very favorable track for winter storm.
* Monster easterly jet 60-75 kts forecast.
* Number of SREF/GEFS plumes showing snow is on the increase.
* Dynamic cooling under intense forcing will bring a rain to
  snow scenario.
* Higher elevations under most threat for significant snow.
* Central ridge-valley areas not out of the woods.
* ECMWF/GFS develop steep mid level lapse rates...thunder snow?

Monday will be the most complicated and active day of the
forecast period. In a normal winter with normal cold air in
place, the expected track of a deep low up along or just off the
coast would be cause for joy among snow crows. But we are
abnormally mild ahead of this storm and that complicates the
forecast enormously.

During the day the models agree in intensifying the easterly
low level jet, as strong as 75 kt in some of the guidance.
SREF/GEFS show this to exceed 6 STD DEV in the anomaly plots.
Not a surprise with such an intense jet, ensembles also show a
high likelihood of more than an inch of QPF over much of
southern and central PA during the day Monday.

The complicating factor will be the amount of dynamic cooling
that is forecast to occur at the height of the storm as strong
warm advection and frontogenetic forcing support a period
intense upward vertical motion Monday morning into the
afternoon.

Initially we will see rain in all locations, but by mid morning
the higher elevations could mix with or change to wet snow that
will continue into the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest
the snow could actually become more than just a higher
elevation threat by mid afternoon with thermal profiles even as
far east as AOO/UNV cooling sufficiently for all snow. If the
next run of models continues this idea of explosive dynamic
cooling as precip increases under the intense forcing, I would
anticipate some sort of headline to become necessary. The threat
is for several inches of heavy wet snow, especially favoring
the higher elevations from the Laurels northward, but possibly
even eastward into the central ridge-valley region of the CWA.

Another concern is the potential for flooding. Target area for
the heaviest rain is across the south central part of the state,
where orographic forcing at nose of powerful easterly low level
jet will play a role. Mean QPF from both SREF and GEFS max out
around 1.5 inches in this region, while FFG/FFH is around 2
inches/6hr. Have to stay alert for locally higher amounts such
as hinted at by the higher resolution NAM. Right now it looks
like a relatively fast moving event so will mention the
possibility of minor flooding in the HWO for this area late
Monday.

It`s all going to make for a busy day for sure.

My apologies went by HWO.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z Euro just upped the ante for snow for CTP, & now looks like the NAM. The Euro brought the snow much further south than its 0z run last night.

It now brings around 6 inches of snow to State College & Williamsport, while last night's run only had those areas near 2 in.

The Harrisburg area now has 1-2 inches of snow, while last night's run had near 0. It now also has the northern half of Dauphin County & most of Perry county in the 3 inch range.

 

 

[MAG5035]

2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

My apologies went by HWO.

It's fine haha, they are being fairly conservative with the winter weather products for now given the uncertainty.  Just wanted to point out that they are def impressed with the overall storm potential. 

[Blizzard of 93]

MAG, or anyone else, do you have the Euro 12z text output for MDT that you could post ?

[WmsptWx]

There is nothing I love more than rain changing to a wind-driven cement. I'll make sure to scoop whatever we get up and send it to the border for the wall.

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP just posted a Winter Storm Watch for the northern tier counties. 

[MAG5035]

13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MAG, or anyone else, do you have the Euro 12z text output for MDT that you could post ?

12Z JAN22
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SUN 12Z 22-JAN   6.0     7.5    1006      99      81    0.00     557     551    
SUN 18Z 22-JAN   8.9     6.3    1005      89      73    0.00     555     551    
MON 00Z 23-JAN   8.5     5.4    1005      94      77    0.00     553     549    
MON 06Z 23-JAN   7.5     4.5    1005      91      92    0.01     553     549    
MON 12Z 23-JAN   4.7     3.4    1003      87      80    0.01     553     550    
MON 18Z 23-JAN   3.3    -1.0    1000      93      99    0.18     549     548    
TUE 00Z 24-JAN   1.3    -2.7    1002      99      98    0.38     546     544    
TUE 06Z 24-JAN   1.9    -1.4     999      97      53    0.17     545     546    
TUE 12Z 24-JAN   1.9    -1.4    1000      90      87    0.04     545     545  

Definitely colder there, I have seen the full maps and it's prob the best snow map for C-PA I've seen from the Euro . MDT in the 1-3, UNV straddling or just above the 3" line, all of north central (includes IPT) 6"+ with a general 6-10".  Central NY state bullseye 10-12". 850 lows are quite similar track wise between the NAM/GFS/Euro. The Euro's might be a bit stronger. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Thanks MAG!

The Euro seems under done on total precip amounts. The text data that you posted shows only around .8 of precip, while most other models show well over 1 inch.

Needless to say, it sure will be interesting to watch this unfold tomorrow!

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Not advocating one scenario or the other since this is a very tough and marginal setup, but seriously... did you read the NWS discussion from this morning? That's about as excited as I've ever seen that forecaster get for events around here.

Per NWS..

Previous...
* Surface low taking a very favorable track for winter storm.
* Monster easterly jet 60-75 kts forecast.
* Number of SREF/GEFS plumes showing snow is on the increase.
* Dynamic cooling under intense forcing will bring a rain to
  snow scenario.
* Higher elevations under most threat for significant snow.
* Central ridge-valley areas not out of the woods.
* ECMWF/GFS develop steep mid level lapse rates...thunder snow?

Monday will be the most complicated and active day of the
forecast period. In a normal winter with normal cold air in
place, the expected track of a deep low up along or just off the
coast would be cause for joy among snow crows. But we are
abnormally mild ahead of this storm and that complicates the
forecast enormously.

During the day the models agree in intensifying the easterly
low level jet, as strong as 75 kt in some of the guidance.
SREF/GEFS show this to exceed 6 STD DEV in the anomaly plots.
Not a surprise with such an intense jet, ensembles also show a
high likelihood of more than an inch of QPF over much of
southern and central PA during the day Monday.

The complicating factor will be the amount of dynamic cooling
that is forecast to occur at the height of the storm as strong
warm advection and frontogenetic forcing support a period
intense upward vertical motion Monday morning into the
afternoon.

Initially we will see rain in all locations, but by mid morning
the higher elevations could mix with or change to wet snow that
will continue into the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest
the snow could actually become more than just a higher
elevation threat by mid afternoon with thermal profiles even as
far east as AOO/UNV cooling sufficiently for all snow. If the
next run of models continues this idea of explosive dynamic
cooling as precip increases under the intense forcing, I would
anticipate some sort of headline to become necessary. The threat
is for several inches of heavy wet snow, especially favoring
the higher elevations from the Laurels northward, but possibly
even eastward into the central ridge-valley region of the CWA.

Another concern is the potential for flooding. Target area for
the heaviest rain is across the south central part of the state,
where orographic forcing at nose of powerful easterly low level
jet will play a role. Mean QPF from both SREF and GEFS max out
around 1.5 inches in this region, while FFG/FFH is around 2
inches/6hr. Have to stay alert for locally higher amounts such
as hinted at by the higher resolution NAM. Right now it looks
like a relatively fast moving event so will mention the
possibility of minor flooding in the HWO for this area late
Monday.

It`s all going to make for a busy day for sure.

Thanks for sharing.  I also thought the same thing when I read it.  Not like them to be so amped about a storm.  They usually poo poo until the last minute.

Nut

[Jmister]

Apparently the afternoon crew is not as enthused yet:

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, Jmister said:

Apparently the afternoon crew is not as enthused yet:

And THATS the CTP we all know and .........

well we know em

I'm just goint to reread the forecast discussion a few times...it'll boost my spirits.

Nut

 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z NAM stepped up again with snow amounts for ALL of CTP. 

The regular old 12 km NAM has about 4 inches for the Harrisburg area & closer to 8 inches in the I-99 corridor. 

The High Res 4km NAM has around 6 inches for the Harrisburg area & closer to 10 inches for the I-99 corridor.

I would be thrilled even if half of these amounts verified!