Southeast Winter Storm Threats - Model Performance

[Orangeburgwx]

10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

One of the best modeled storms from LR on the globals in a while. Was so impressed with new gfs. Put the heavy precip strip right where it ended up from 7 days out along with 5h players.  Kept chucking out 1 to 2 foot totals and they verefied. NAM was to far north with transition, warm nose. Time it got to me damage was done 8+, then the sleet frzng rn moved in. 

The fact the FV3 hit it dead on the money from 5 days out really impressed me, and showed that it is an excellent replacement that can be treated with respect and cannot be overlooked once January rolls around 

[Brick Tamland]

I'd give the tag team belts to FV3 and HRRR. I thought they were the best ling and short range models.

[ncsled]

What strength did the high pressure to the north end up being?  Did it slide out too soon?

[WidreMann]

Seemed to be about 1036, but it was done into VA. In an ideal CAD set up, we have a strong high over the eastern Great Lakes, wedge downwards from there, and also lobing westward into the upper Midwest. It needs to be 1040 or above. It also needs to be a proper Arctic high pressure. We can get CAD from maritime or continental subpolar highs, but it's not as good. It needs to be dry and very cold.

[ncsled]

thanks. 

[strongwxnc]

The warm nose depicted on the NAM was
Spot on for the southern foothills. Showed up right when the rates would have been beefy. This In turn, kept totals below what the fv3 was showing ( for my area). Points n and nw were spot on as modeled days out.


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[FlatLander48]

On a large scale picture, the FV3 blew every single other model away. Really excited for it to replace the old GFS after this storm, locked in about a week before and didn't budge(once again, on a large scale). On the flip side I am disappointed by the NAM, it had a bi-polar phase there on Saturday with the QPF. Picked up the warm nose well, just as it should however,