isohume Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 FWIW, I think we should add Sunday's non-storm on this list. I'm pretty sure the Euro never had a single run in the long/medium range showing this storm while the GFS was spitting out everything from massive ice storms, to heavy rain storms. Now that were 60hrs away from the event it's evident that there is essentially going to be no storm other than the Canadian low that the Euro was advertising all along. Score one for the Euro here... Here is a depiction of the current GFS run for Sunday morning.. with the 168hr prog for the GFS and Euro from last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 hours ago, burrel2 said: FWIW, I think we should add Sunday's non-storm on this list. I'm pretty sure the Euro never had a single run in the long/medium range showing this storm while the GFS was spitting out everything from massive ice storms, to heavy rain storms. Now that were 60hrs away from the event it's evident that there is essentially going to be no storm other than the Canadian low that the Euro was advertising all along. Score one for the Euro here... Here is a depiction of the current GFS run for Sunday morning.. with the 168hr prog for the GFS and Euro from last weekend. burrel - I'm a bit torn on this one because the Euro did have one run where it showed a good storm with icing in NC. Viewing the old models runs on TT, it looks like the GFS had roughly 4 model runs with wintry precip in the SE...but since it runs 4 times a day, it's more like 2 to 1 when comparing to the Euro. CMC also had a few runs with wintry precip....so, I'm inclined not to add it since it wasn't a locked in disparity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Time to bring this thread back to life! Gfs and Euro day 5 let's see who wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Let's see what happens at 00z franklin...if there is a big difference again and there is some wintry precip in our forum, I will log it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Added a case here for the GFS/Euro vs. CMC/UKMet battle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Navgem get's an A+ for this one in the mid-range time frame. No other model latched on to the correct large-scale solution like it did. Ukmet was good as well. Last place in the mid-range goes to the GFS; however, if you take it's biases in to account you could figure it was showing about exactly what you would expect for the storm. In some ways it's deficiencies are so predictable that it makes the modeled output useful, even though they're wrong! Euro was almost as bad. Rgem wins the day for short range precip-type prediction and thermal profiles, at least for upstate SC. It was spot on with rain/snow line even from 36hrs out or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I thought the GFS did great with the r/s line several days out. However, it was late to the party on the precip shield pushing back to the NW. NAM did well with the precip shield pushing back to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 For the Triad, the NAM-3km did the best job with the limited accumulations due to waa. Most models were depicting snow depths of 5-7 inches for the entire Triad. The Nam-3km kept insisting that the major accumulations would be in the NW half of the region, which turned out to be the case. My 1/2" of slush is proof of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Gonna be chase time again second half next week. Hopefully this one will work out a little better in the piedmont. Love this pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 7 hours ago, burrel2 said: Navgem get's an A+ for this one in the mid-range time frame. No other model latched on to the correct large-scale solution like it did. Ukmet was good as well. Last place in the mid-range goes to the GFS; however, if you take it's biases in to account you could figure it was showing about exactly what you would expect for the storm. In some ways it's deficiencies are so predictable that it makes the modeled output useful, even though they're wrong! Euro was almost as bad. Rgem wins the day for short range precip-type prediction and thermal profiles, at least for upstate SC. It was spot on with rain/snow line even from 36hrs out or so. NAM and RGEM I think we’re the first models to start spitting out huge totals for parts of GA. Even bey didn’t sniff out the big hit possibility until 24-36 hours ahead of time. The GFS sucked here too. Had a suppressed nothing and played catch-up to the Euro. I think you’re right about the NAVGEM it also handled the storm well down his way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 The GFS was terrible. The Euro and NAM had me in the jackpot zone 49 hours out. So they sucked too, as far as I'm concerned. The UK and slimgem did ok, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 The only models that had the right idea about the storm were the navgem, cmc, and ukie. The navgem did the best and the euro and gfs were terrible. Gfs finally caught on about 18 hours before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 47 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The GFS was terrible. The Euro and NAM had me in the jackpot zone 49 hours out. So they sucked too, as far as I'm concerned. The UK and slimgem did ok, I guess. The 3km nam never did. It showed things confined to Western NC and did the best overall inside 60 hours, at least for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Yeah, than NAM and NAM-3K did a great job picking up on the general trends and even some specifics with ptypes. One of the NAM runs had the snow/sleet mix further SE because of heavier rates, and sure enough, the Triangle had a period of snow and sleet, enough to accumulate in the NW half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 11 hours ago, snowlover91 said: The 3km nam never did. It showed things confined to Western NC and did the best overall inside 60 hours, at least for NC. 3k NAM was fine. But there were plenty of 12k runs that had a bunch of snow/mix here. So, I'll be fair split the difference and give it a B-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 OK, I'm a few weeks late, but here's the update for the early Dec storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: OK, I'm a few weeks late, but here's the update for the early Dec storm... Euro still getting blanked. Who'd a thunk it? I guess they need some rededication to their most important job: predicting winter weather in the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Did the old Euro and the real Old GFS become one of the members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2017 Author Share Posted December 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Did the old Euro and the real Old GFS become one of the members? Of the ensemble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Of the ensemble? Yes. Just wondering if we can still track them that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2017 Author Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Yes. Just wondering if we can still track them that way. No, the ensemble members would be slight variations of the current model, run at a lower resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: No, the ensemble members would be slight variations of the current model, run at a lower resolution I was just hoping we could get an accurate model again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 8 hours ago, griteater said: OK, I'm a few weeks late, but here's the update for the early Dec storm... I know it wasn't a storm but the gfs was the first to bring the trough back to the east by Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 The NAM being out front in showing the storm, then being the model to show the dry slot first was impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Welp I just busted out. Good luck y’all the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 And NAM also sniffed out the Sandhills bonanza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2018 Author Share Posted December 9, 2018 In terms of the precip type translation, it looks like this storm was kind of in between the RGEM/NAM and the Euro/GFS NAM/RGEM were good with showing precip farther north The globals like GFS/Euro will almost always tick north in the last 24 hr of models cycles Ensembles were solid with showing legit threat when Op runs were jumping around Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, griteater said: In terms of the precip type translation, it looks like this storm was kind of in between the RGEM/NAM and the Euro/GFS NAM/RGEM were good with showing precip farther north The globals like GFS/Euro will almost always tick north in the last 24 hr of models cycles Ensembles were solid with showing legit threat when Op runs were jumping around Thoughts? One of the best modeled storms from LR on the globals in a while. Was so impressed with new gfs. Put the heavy precip strip right where it ended up from 7 days out along with 5h players. Kept chucking out 1 to 2 foot totals and they verefied. NAM was to far north with transition, warm nose. Time it got to me damage was done 8+, then the sleet frzng rn moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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