griteater Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 We had some discussion on this last week, but I'm opening up this thread to track model performance for southeast winter storm threats. As the case list grows, we can see over time which model has the best performance in our region. Let me know (via a post in the thread) if a potential case arises that should be added. The target date range for the cases will be 2-6 days prior to the storm event. Once a case is added, it is tracked to verification date, regardless of model flip flopping. For example, let's say at Day 6, the Euro has a few runs showing a snowstorm, but the GFS does not - that case is documented. Then let's say later, at Day 3, the models flip, and the GFS shows a snowstorm and the Euro does not - the original documented case isn't changed and is tracked to verification, but potentially a new case is added for the model difference that now exists at Day 3. Here's what I've got thus far to get it started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeremy.ashley79 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Nice work on this Grit. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 GFS 12/10-12/11 had me getting up to 59 degrees by 1:00 pm , LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 THIS is a GREAT idea, grit! Big league spreadsheet you have there. Definitely a temperature bust by the GFS with the first event, but as far as what actually fell, 'twas solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2016 Author Share Posted December 19, 2016 ^ Thanks all. The griteater basement is prepared to go ahead and early call this another win for the GFS. It may be quiet in here in the upcoming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Good work, Grit. This is what I suspected, anecdotally. Also, didn't the models prof the high to the north today to be around 1044mb? What is it in actuality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Good work, Grit. This is what I suspected, anecdotally. Also, didn't the models prof the high to the north today to be around 1044mb? What is it in actuality? Pressure in Maine right now is around 1040-1042 so that's pretty close...... http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=car&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=216&map_y=172&x=216&y=173#.WFhy7KwzV9N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Just now, downeastnc said: Pressure in Maine right now is around 1040-1042 so that's pretty close...... http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=car&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=216&map_y=172&x=216&y=173#.WFhy7KwzV9N Cool, thanks man. No that's not bad at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Score one for the GFS... Nice work, keep it up. By next month, we may have a clearer picture of our "model of choice" in the 6-10 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Nice thread. To draw any scientific conclusions this is going to need something that is absolute you can score it on. I am hearing a lot of what could be subjective deduction. You will also need long term data to work out any short term variations. Statistics are really cool, I think you may have something here in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2016 Author Share Posted December 20, 2016 24 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Nice thread. To draw any scientific conclusions this is going to need something that is absolute you can score it on. I am hearing a lot of what could be subjective deduction. You will also need long term data to work out any short term variations. Statistics are really cool, I think you may have something here in the future. Thank you and everyone else for the comments. Yes, you've identified one of my concerns which is identifying the cases to track. The target will be winter storm threats where there is an established model difference (not just a single run). For example, Euro shows a weak winter storm and the GFS shows a whopper....or, Euro shows a winter storm, but the GFS does not. We'll have to see how it goes. It won't be a perfect system. And yes, the goal would be to have this as a continuous, running thread over a multi-year time period. Could also track things like pattern predictions....i.e. GEFS shows east coast trough in 6-10 day avg, while Euro Ens is zonal....but I'm not planning to track those kinds of differences at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Nice thread Griteater! This will be very interesting going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Good test going on now with the euro gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Good test going on now with the euro gfs. I WAS JUST LOOKING FOR THIS THREAD! haha, can the GFS go 3/3?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, Jonathan said: I WAS JUST LOOKING FOR THIS THREAD! haha, can the GFS go 3/3?! Me too. Here's where we stand as of today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The difference is huge at only 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Thanks guys, I've added it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 22 minutes ago, griteater said: Thanks guys, I've added it! Thanks, Grit. The GFS needs to go 3 for 3! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It would be just our luck that the Euro finally wins the model war with this next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It'll take this w for me to even come close to thinking it's in the same league as euro. Been watching these for years and as bad as want the gfs to be right for once it's gonna have to prove it to me. It's had more than one big run beside 12z today. Matter fact it was last wednesday when it spat out 12 inch totals and Jan 1988 reduux was the topic of conversation. This is how we all got started chasing this threat period.Thursday every model thrashed the SE and abandon the cold push idea except ukmet, then Thursday night 12z after a board wide cliff jump suicide, every model came right back to ukmet cold press pattern and 2 wave, artic front in the gom look. They've all done great with the pattern besides that one cycle and identifying the 2 waves. Now it's crunch time and who's gonna back down on the seperartion factor at 72 hr mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm going to need to read back through the storm thread, but I will be adding another case that popped up in the 3-4 day range where the GFS was showing runs with snow in Columbia. In terms of the wobbles that occur within the 1-2 day range, I don't have plans to document those kinds of discrepancies (just too many to track). In this thread, I'm mainly concerned with the bigger picture. Model A has a storm and Model B doesn't. Or Model A has a storm way south of Model B and they are going about it in different ways etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 And GFS is going to win in case #3 above, but will fail on case #4 that I mentioned in the previous post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 All hail the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 19 hours ago, griteater said: And GFS is going to win in case #3 above, but will fail on case #4 that I mentioned in the previous post Another win for the gfs on this one from 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 The NAM also did incredibly well with the thermal profiles and prolific totals in the NW portion of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 NAM scored big on warm noses and heavy snow further west. Thinking back on it both the GFS and EURO were garbage with some of their solutions just 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: NAM scored big on warm noses and heavy snow further west. Thinking back on it both the GFS and EURO were garbage with some of their solutions just 2 days out. No, the gfs was the most consistent with this storm especially considering it runs 4 times a day and the euro only two. It had a couple bad runs here or there but it was consistent along with the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now getting around to it, but I have 2 cases in there now for this previous storm. GFS won early on at a 5 day lead time. The GFS then shifted south, and I have the UKMet as the winner at the 4 day lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Euro getting blanked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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