mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 28 minutes ago, Jonathan said: The CFS continues to get uglier every day as well for JAN. Last run looks record-breaking warm in the east. Good thing that's JB's favorite model! It'll definitely be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 I think at least short term if we can get through these next 10 days or so things may improve slowly. The run of the Euro is not looking that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 36 minutes ago, Jonathan said: The CFS continues to get uglier every day as well for JAN. Last run looks record-breaking warm in the east. How has it done for this month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I think at least short term if we can get through these next 10 days or so things may improve slowly. The run of the Euro is not looking that bad. Yeah, at the end of the run, looks like plains getting cold and headed this way!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, at the end of the run, looks like plains getting cold and headed this way!? My next date is December 31st to see at least some changes in the upcoming pattern. That's my target date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 JB seems to be tweeting warm (and that in and of itself is a double edged sword) Quote: 1 of Basic problems of US models is their rush to a result.Example Canadian 384 hour, western trof, US trying to flip to colder looks wrong emphasis supplied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: How has it done for this month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Seems to have missed the Midwest Arctic plunge. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Seems to have missed the Midwest Arctic plunge. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 20 minutes ago, pcbjr said: JB seems to be tweeting warm (and that in and of itself is a double edged sword) Quote: 1 of Basic problems of US models is their rush to a result.Example Canadian 384 hour, western trof, US trying to flip to colder looks wrong emphasis supplied Since he's right about as many times as Miami goes below freezing, I'm not concerned with his thoughts! If he wasn't such a quack, he'd be interested in the wedging around Christmas, that's going to have a lot of us below normal, while the rest of the east is torching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 1 minute ago, strongwxnc said: Seems to have missed the Midwest Arctic plunge. Right. Didn't quite get the eastward push right. Still 10 days to turn those light blues over to orange in the east, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 56 minutes ago, Met1985 said: My next date is December 31st to see at least some changes in the upcoming pattern. That's my target date. Yep...I am with you. Below are all the nina's (that I could find) with the cold/trough west and warm east...they were complete opposite n-pac SST then what we currently have. I know +PDO typically couples with warm ENSO so maybe it's a simple as that and that this nina is driving everything. But, I don't think it's a coincidence that these were all strong -PDO winters and and were predominately neutral or -QBO winters, which is opposite of what we have. Probably should note.... just because the trough in the west may not last long doesn't mean trough in the east either...although we can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 5 minutes ago, Jonathan said: CFS is going to end up doing fairly well come Dec 31st....it typically does when looking at the last few runs of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: CFS is going to end up doing fairly well come Dec 31st....it typically does when looking at the last few runs of the month. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year back atcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 This is for mac and brick before they lose there minds over all the warmth. EPS for NYE compared to its run 2 days ago. #coldfrontscanhappen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: This is for mac and brick before they lose there minds over all the warmth. EPS for NYE compared to it's 2 days ago. #coldfrontscanhappen Not sure I'm the one losing my mind over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Ridging building poleward on EPS...change from previous runs and nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 26 minutes ago, pcbjr said: JB seems to be tweeting warm (and that in and of itself is a double edged sword) Quote: 1 of Basic problems of US models is their rush to a result.Example Canadian 384 hour, western trof, US trying to flip to colder looks wrong emphasis supplied Since he's right about as many times as Miami goes below freezing, I'm not concerned with his thoughts! If he wasn't such a quack, he'd be interested in the wedging around Christmas, that's going to have a lot of us below normal, while the rest of the east is torching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 23 minutes ago, packbacker said: This is for mac and brick before they lose there minds over all the warmth. EPS for NYE compared to its run 2 days ago. #coldfrontscanhappen Pretty sure you said not long ago that December would finish AN , no matter all your wishcasting and warm anomalies pics, it's not going to happen! May the wedge be with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 21 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Pretty sure you said not long ago that December would finish AN , no matter all your wishcasting and warm anomalies pics, it's not going to happen! May the wedge be with you! I did...easy money. Next 11 days will be solidly AN...cuddle up to the SER. Unless your on Jb's Dec calendar which apparently ends on Dec 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 My thoughts: the SER has been modeled too strong in the medium/long range like others have said. Its been around normal to slightly below for most of us this month. That said the pattern is still horrible at the moment. I don't see any way to score until some big players get shaken up a bit. I'll take cool and cloudy in a **** pattern over warm and muggy in a **** pattern like we had last dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Aww, yeah! CFS says let Jammin' January commence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 18z GFS was close to a New Year's Eve frozen miracle, for Roxboro anyway! Baby steps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 1 hour ago, packbacker said: I did...easy money. Next 11 days will be solidly AN...cuddle up to the SER. Unless your on Jb's Dec calendar which apparently ends on Dec 18th. There's no way CLT , GSP, or RAH finish the whole month AN!! 0% chance of AN, 100% chance they finish below normal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: There's no way CLT , GSP, or RAH finish the whole month AN!! 0% chance of AN, 100% chance they finish below normal! Agree on GSP anyway. I'm 3-5 below normal for the montheads which should be about the same for gsp. We would have to go above 56 the rest of the month to even be close to average. NAO going negative in January could mean good things for us snow lovers. As the pattern flips back add in some good blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: There's no way CLT , GSP, or RAH finish the whole month AN!! 0% chance of AN, 100% chance they finish below normal! We will see. :-) I just posted above I don't buy this cold west not lasting long...no credit for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Seems to have missed the Midwest Arctic plunge. Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkMy composite of La Niña years w/ +PDO certainly didn't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 I did...easy money. Next 11 days will be solidly AN...cuddle up to the SER. Unless your on Jb's Dec calendar which apparently ends on Dec 18th.It will take steep AN temps for the rest of the month to overcome those anomalies, especially outside of the SE. Not sure if 4-5 days AN in our backyard will cut it ether l, possibly, we shall see sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Jon, you and StrongWx double-post every time you make a post. It doesn't really matter, but I didn't know if you knew it or not. Anyway, good info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Jon, you and StrongWx double-post every time you make a post. It doesn't really matter, but I didn't know if you knew it or not. Anyway, good info It's probably the tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.