mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: If it can snow in the sahara desert it can snow in the SE and Shettleys house. The CFSV2, has some good panels for its 45 day snowcover maps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 MJO rule of thumb: Left side good, right side bad in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Y'all kidding about this pattern being hopeful, right? *runs and hides* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 If you want a good read on some scientific literature behind the MJO and eastern snowfall check out Klotzbach et al. publication from earlier this year in the Monthly Weather Review. Good information about how phases 7-8 favor Southern New England and the East Coast in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 ^^Thanks for the MJO explanation everybody. So yes it looks to be heading towards 8 & 1. Lets see what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 12 minutes ago, griteater said: Y'all kidding about this pattern being hopeful, right? *runs and hides* LOL...yep, the question isn't if we are going to be warm it's how warm are we going to get. If you were to dream up a warm winter pattern this is what you would want. Sucks but it it feel good and cut down on heating bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 The BC version of the GEFS looks more realistic for MJO, matches up with the Euro. Nina with +HLB is driving this pattern...we are so screwed in the near/mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 18 minutes ago, griteater said: Y'all kidding about this pattern being hopeful, right? *runs and hides* Yep, everything except the part where the southeast is warm...lol. Seriously, let the models get a handle on the predicted MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 I'm off to get my pre emergent and lawnmower tune up! I'm gonna need it! In between wedges! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 12z GFS continues to strengthen the CAD for Christmas. RDU looks to have 40s for Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just now, FallsLake said: 12z GFS continues to strengthen the CAD for Christmas. RDU looks to have 40s for Christmas day. Again seeing the warm up showing past 7 days continues to back off as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 13 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Seriously, let the models get a handle on the predicted MJO. Agree. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Lots of spread - pick a cup a KoolAid - there's something for all tastes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I'm off to get my pre emergent and lawnmower tune up! I'm gonna need it! In between wedges! Too late! Pack already bought it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 How many times have we seen this warm look in the models change when it gets closer to 5 days of the forecast? Seems like the SER is overdone most of the time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, GaStorm said: How many times have we seen this warm look in the models change when it gets closer to 5 days of the forecast? Seems like the SER is overdone most of the time as well. You're right, but I don't know that the degree of the warmth matters all that much in the end. The pattern is a pig, and it doesn't really smell any better with lipstick caked all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: You're right, but I don't know that the degree of the warmth matters all that much in the end. The pattern is a pig, and it doesn't really smell any better with lipstick caked all over it. Lol. True it's not a great pattern but at least it's not the torch we had last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 The pattern does not look as bad as it has from about December 31 on through the remainder of the run. Sure it will change but since we are nitpicking each run that's not a torich look. You actually have ridling in the west and troughing in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just now, GaStorm said: Lol. True it's not a great pattern but at least it's not the torch we had last year. Yup, at least there's that! I like the tendency for strong highs this year too. I have a sneaking suspicion that that will be the reason we see at least one widespread winter storm this year....probably more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You're right, but I don't know that the degree of the warmth matters all that much in the end. The pattern is a pig, and it doesn't really smell any better with lipstick caked all over it. We have had worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 And even when we've supposedly had great patterns we still ended up with nothing to show for up. And sometimes we have had big storms when most of the winter has been in a supposedly bad pattern. I don't think it really matters either way anymore. We're still going to need that small window of time either way when everything comes together right to get a winter storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: We have had worst. Absolutely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You're right, but I don't know that the degree of the warmth matters all that much in the end. The pattern is a pig, and it doesn't really smell any better with lipstick caked all over it. I don't know, if I had to go on a date with a pig, I'd rather her be a pretty one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Nina can't die quick enough...but it's at least trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 GEFS still hell bent on connecting aleutian ridge to Europe ridge. Yeah, it doesn't help us in near term but nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 16 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I don't know, if I had to go on a date with a pig, I'd rather her be a pretty one. Good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEFS still hell bent on connecting aleutian ridge to Europe ridge. Yeah, it doesn't help us in near term but nice to see. Good cutter pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 hours ago, griteater said: Y'all kidding about this pattern being hopeful, right? *runs and hides* This is why we use the Para: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Nice heart shaped block there. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 The CFS continues to get uglier every day as well for JAN. Last run looks record-breaking warm in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Here's a rundown of the teleconnections forecast from the latest Ensembles.FORECAST VALID JAN 5TH: 12z GEFS AO: -0.3 NAO: -0.1 PNA: +0.1 EPO: +0.1 00z EPS AO: +1.0 NAO: 0.0 12z GEPS (Canadian) AO: +1.0 NAO: +0.4 PNA: -1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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