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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2016-2017

Cary_Snow95

By Cary_Snow95,
in Southeastern States

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

The GEFS for day 10 doesn't look horrendous to me.  It's not perfect but we have seen worse.  We will just have to thread the needle but when don't we regardless of being in the MA or SE.  It's always a sruggle but we will keep chasing.  It would nice to be in Maine though just for a month or so. I bet Caribou doesn't worry about the 850 temps too often.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Euro Weeklies don't look terrible and by that I mean it doesn't keep the SE ridge all 46 days.

Pattern change begins day 25-32, after that below normal 850s in the east...so looking at a pattern change mid-Jan if you take the weeklies verbatim.

Weeklies aren't gospel, so we could easily see them trend sooner w/ a pattern change or move towards keeping the SER. Not really leaning one way or the other right now. Overall not a spectacular look, but progress.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Euro Weeklies don't look terrible and by that I mean it doesn't keep the SE ridge all 46 days.

Pattern change begins day 25-32, after that below normal 850s in the east...so looking at a pattern change mid-Jan if you take the weeklies verbatim.

Weeklies aren't gospel, so we could easily see them trend sooner w/ a pattern change or move towards keeping the SER. Not really leaning one way or the other right now. Overall not a spectacular look, but progress.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, westmc9th said:

The tail end of the 6z GFS should make people on here step away from the cliff. Fantasy land storm but fun to look at either way. 

Just proves the point that we can still get a winter storm in a bad pattern. As you mentioned, it's at day 16 so the details of a specific feature have to be ignored. But we can still be hopeful that somebody can score in the next month during a period where the east coast will most likely be battling a hostel pattern.

On another topic, Christmas may still be saved by CAD. Latest models continue to show a potential CAD extending from Christmas Eve into Christmas. Then the 26th having it break down and putting many way above normal for 5 days or so. From RAH:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

A dry cold front attendant to a shortwave crossing the great lakes
will cross central NC on Thursday, with only a slight dip in near
normal highs Friday as a modified Pacific high builds over the
region.  The surface high will then shift quickly offshore by
Saturday, with the potential for some precip spreading northeast
across the front to our south as a once closed low off the
California Baja lifts and shears across the central Plains and
Midwest on Saturday and Sunday.  Model qpf is relatively light, with
the ECMWF currently indicating a more robust precip signal, but the
more notable impact may be to briefly lock in a wedge airmass as a
1040mb high noses in from eastern Canada.  This would counteract
what would otherwise be significant warming early next week as a
well supported ridge builds over the Southeast in response to a
deepening West Coast trough.  Confidence in weekend temps and precip
is a little below normal at the moment.
 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Jon said:

Euro Weeklies don't look terrible and by that I mean it doesn't keep the SE ridge all 46 days.

Pattern change begins day 25-32, after that below normal 850s in the east...so looking at a pattern change mid-Jan if you take the weeklies verbatim.

Weeklies aren't gospel, so we could easily see them trend sooner w/ a pattern change or move towards keeping the SER. Not really leaning one way or the other right now. Overall not a spectacular look, but progress.

Agree...they were fairly bad.  By the end it snaps back to trough in the west. 

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Temps just keep trending down for Christmas. Highs were forecasted to be in the 60's at one point. Now, we are looking at clouds, wedge, light rain and temps in the upper 30's to lower 40's. Looks like we are in a pattern that is conducive to damming and wedges right now. Hey, I'll take it!

Yes, this is the ideal weather given the pattern we're in.  Cold and cloudy.  Not a fan of the sun in winter.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

For our 384 GFS winter storm, other than it being 384 GFS and marginal temps, it would be how we could get a great storm! A "cold" front comes through and about a day later , a low forms in the gulf, Miller A style, blows up as it crosses far SE GA! Fun to look at, until 12z

Thats excatly how that awesome 10 day stretch in 2000 happened. Was a horrible pattern, winter outside that window. Anytime you can get a front to drape across NE GOM off SE coast in the winter it gives us a great opportunity, moreso than trying to time out a phase coming from our west and praying it doesnt cut to the GL or run the apps. When the front comes through you have fresh cold, a HP building into the NE and very favorable confluence. Then the toughest piece to the puzzle is to get a drop of NS energy to drop down the backside of the NE HP and set off the fireworks along a stalled frontal boundary. But you can still get good overruning, weak waves to do the trick without NS energy phasing in, just want be as big an event bombogenesis wise. Its what you had happen the past 36 hours, problem was it happened on December 19 not January 19 when climo would have guranteed alot more favorable upper atmosphere to work with @ 850's etc.

Some themes that seem to be showing repeat, mainstays 3 weeks into met winter are cads, HP's sliding through NE and fronts dyeing out off the coast. Problem is theres no blocking to lock in the NE HP's, they are progressive so your window of oppurtunity behind the fronts only last abouyt 72-90 hours before eitheir another front comes along or you get return flow. Luckily we only had about 20 hours of return flow this past Sat into Sunday before another front blew through. So in a crap pattern to me this is the type of scenerio that can help those of us east of the apps avoid the shutout and score. This 6z storm will be gone at 12z, but its a clue as what to look for going into January and easily doable in the pattern we are stuck in.

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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jshetley said:

Hopefully that 1040mb high does NOT show up. I do not want a multiday stretch of useless clouds and temps in the 40's. 

I hope a 1050 shows up and parks itself. I would love a week of cloudy cold weather! Hey, maybe with cloud  and cold, we could even see a little wintry weather. Warm and clear doesn't usually deliver. 

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted
Yes, this is the ideal weather given the pattern we're in.  Cold and cloudy.  Not a fan of the sun in winter.


I could not agree more! Yesterday was a wonderful winter day with a high of 43 a northwest wind and cloudy all day long. That is winter in our area.
With that said, let's get some snow :-)



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Thats excatly how that awesome 10 day stretch in 2000 happened. Was a horrible pattern, winter outside that window. Anytime you can get a front to drape across NE GOM off SE coast in the winter it gives us a great opportunity, moreso than trying to time out a phase coming from our west and praying it doesnt cut to the GL or run the apps. When the front comes through you have fresh cold, a HP building into the NE and very favorable confluence. Then the toughest piece to the puzzle is to get a drop of NS energy to drop down the backside of the NE HP and set off the fireworks along a stalled frontal boundary. But you can still get good overruning, weak waves to do the trick without NS energy phasing in, just want be as big an event bombogenesis wise. Its what you had happen the past 36 hours, problem was it happened on December 19 not January 19 when climo would have guranteed alot more favorable upper atmosphere to work with @ 850's etc.

Some themes that seem to be showing repeat, mainstays 3 weeks into met winter our cads, HP's sliding through NE and fronts dyeing out off the coast. Problem is theres no blocking to lock in the NE HP's, they are progressive so your window of oppurtunity behind the fronts only last abouyt 72-90 hours before eitheir another front comes along or you get return flow. Luckily we only had about 20 hours of return flow this past Sat into Sunday before another front blew through. So in a crap pattern to me this the type of scenerio that can help those of us east of the apps avoid the shutout and score. This 6z storm will be gone at 12z, but its a clue as what to look for going into January and easily doable in the pattern we are stuck in.

Had a pretty good feeling that this would be a winter with lots of wedges. The pattern screams damming. Highs sliding into New England and over-running moisture. If we could get a cold dry North East, then we would be looking at a lot of opportunities come next month.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I hope a 1050 shows up and parks itself. I would love a week of cloudy cold weather! Hey, maybe with cloud  and cold, we could even see a little wintry weather. Warm and clear doesn't usually deliver. 

I need a couple of sunny, warm days! Still cleaning up tornado damage! Trees and stumps and such! There are about 10 houses in my neighborhood , that were damaged so badly structurally, they are going to have to demolish them and start from the ground up! Sorry for the OT

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

For our 384 GFS winter storm, other than it being 384 GFS and marginal temps, it would be how we could get a great storm! A "cold" front comes through and about a day later , a low forms in the gulf, Miller A style, blows up as it crosses far SE GA! Fun to look at, until 12z

 

15 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Thats excatly how that awesome 10 day stretch in 2000 happened. Was a horrible pattern, winter outside that window. Anytime you can get a front to drape across NE GOM off SE coast in the winter it gives us a great opportunity, moreso than trying to time out a phase coming from our west and praying it doesnt cut to the GL or run the apps. When the front comes through you have fresh cold, a HP building into the NE and very favorable confluence. Then the toughest piece to the puzzle is to get a drop of NS energy to drop down the backside of the NE HP and set off the fireworks along a stalled frontal boundary. But you can still get good overruning, weak waves to do the trick without NS energy phasing in, just want be as big an event bombogenesis wise. Its what you had happen the past 36 hours, problem was it happened on December 19 not January 19 when climo would have guranteed alot more favorable upper atmosphere to work with @ 850's etc.

 

I'd gladly take a repeat of that stretch in January 2000 and call it a winter. As long as we stay active and don't have a full blown torch with temps in the 60s and close to 70, I think we'll be okay. Just keep it close to normal and some precip chances every 7 to 10 days and I think we'll score once or twice with some winter storms. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Indices not as bad today in the LR:

AO - After peaking out just under +5 it may head towards neutral in the LR

NAO - After peaking out near +2 will head under +1 in the LR

PNA - After falling to negative territory it looks to head back positive in the LR

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Indices not as bad today in the LR:

AO - After peaking out just under +5 it may head towards neutral in the LR

NAO - After peaking out near +2 will head under +1 in the LR

PNA - After falling to negative territory it looks to head back positive in the LR

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Pay attention to the MJO. Its heading toward the high dollar rent section right at prime time climo wise.

gefsmjo.JPG

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