Mid-Long Range Discussion 2016-2017

[Met1985]

40 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Well, I think anybody who had hopes for winter this year, should read Isotherms post in the MA forum! It's pretty much a kick in the baguettes for winter lovers! I'm totally deflated now!  very disappointing, I'm out!

See yeah bro! Lol the gfs changes virtually every single run. 

[packbacker]

1 hour ago, Jon said:

Interesting I have this for Dec weak Nina +pdo


January

I didn't restrict to enso but rather looked at the strong winter PDO's.  None of these are torch winters.  I guess there could always be a first.  

 

[packbacker]

45 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Well, I think anybody who had hopes for winter this year, should read Isotherms post in the MA forum! It's pretty much a kick in the baguettes for winter lovers! I'm totally deflated now!  very disappointing, I'm out!

LOL...well he was bearish in his winter outlook that he put out a few weeks ago.  He did say Feb had a chance, the going consensus for hope.  

[WXinCanton]

8 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Well, I think anybody who had hopes for winter this year, should read Isotherms post in the MA forum! It's pretty much a kick in the baguettes for winter lovers! I'm totally deflated now!  very disappointing, I'm out!

 

[downeastnc]

Love the canceling winter in mid Dec stuff we get every year, most of us are lucky if we see 3-5 days a winter with winter p types and a lot of you act like we are suppose to get snow every other day....I guarantee 90-95% of the mid range threats the models have will not work out, they are not suppose to this is the SE not the NE.....the long range predictions been crap the last few winters.....we don't need blocking to get snow storms.....this Dec has been pretty typical of how winter usually goes cold and dry then warm up and rain that's exactly how winters are in the SE.....personally I am pretty certain we will see our share of snow in the SE, the active pattern with cold shots and storms is a good thing, eventually they will overlap. we have 8-10 weeks of legit winter left for most of us, and the models are all over the place in the mid to long range.....sit back and let it happen.

 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

10 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Love the canceling winter in mid Dec stuff we get every year, most of us are lucky if we see 3-5 days a winter with winter p types and a lot of you act like we are suppose to get snow every other day....I guarantee 90-95% of the mid range threats the models have will not work out, they are not suppose to this is the SE not the NE.....the long range predictions been crap the last few winters.....we don't need blocking to get snow storms.....this Dec has been pretty typical of how winter usually goes cold and dry then warm up and rain that's exactly how winters are in the SE.....personally I am pretty certain we will see our share of snow in the SE, the active pattern with cold shots and storms is a good thing, eventually they will overlap. we have 8-10 weeks of legit winter left for most of us, and the models are all over the place in the mid to long range.....sit back and let it happen.

 

Could not have said it better.... agree 100%.

[Met1985]

13 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Love the canceling winter in mid Dec stuff we get every year, most of us are lucky if we see 3-5 days a winter with winter p types and a lot of you act like we are suppose to get snow every other day....I guarantee 90-95% of the mid range threats the models have will not work out, they are not suppose to this is the SE not the NE.....the long range predictions been crap the last few winters.....we don't need blocking to get snow storms.....this Dec has been pretty typical of how winter usually goes cold and dry then warm up and rain that's exactly how winters are in the SE.....personally I am pretty certain we will see our share of snow in the SE, the active pattern with cold shots and storms is a good thing, eventually they will overlap. we have 8-10 weeks of legit winter left for most of us, and the models are all over the place in the mid to long range.....sit back and let it happen.

 

Great post! An excellent way to view stuff.

[tramadoc]

25 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Love the canceling winter in mid Dec stuff we get every year, most of us are lucky if we see 3-5 days a winter with winter p types and a lot of you act like we are suppose to get snow every other day....I guarantee 90-95% of the mid range threats the models have will not work out, they are not suppose to this is the SE not the NE.....the long range predictions been crap the last few winters.....we don't need blocking to get snow storms.....this Dec has been pretty typical of how winter usually goes cold and dry then warm up and rain that's exactly how winters are in the SE.....personally I am pretty certain we will see our share of snow in the SE, the active pattern with cold shots and storms is a good thing, eventually they will overlap. we have 8-10 weeks of legit winter left for most of us, and the models are all over the place in the mid to long range.....sit back and let it happen.

 

Biggest snowstorm I ever saw (besides living in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan as a teenager when my father was stationed there) was in March 2-3,1980 when we got 26" in Elizabeth City. Prior to that particular storm, we had already picked up 27" of snow between January 4, 1980 and the end of February. That was an epic year!!! If anyone remembers that year, we had yo-yo temperatures in February. Warm then cold. Warm then cold. I also saw snow in early April 1983 around here, so for those saying winter is over, just remember those years. Of course in the UP of Michigan I saw snow from October to late April, with the largest being a 12 hour total of 17" in January 1986 in my town of Ishpeming which was about 20 miles west of Marquette. In short, don't give up. Stuff changes around here just like 1980 showed.

[FallsLake]

Below is the day 16 GFS-para. It shows a MA snow storm; in which would be very hurtful to many in the SE if this actually happened as depicted. But the point is this shows many (of many) potential scenarios that could present themselves with the current hostel pattern we're enduring. Basically anything can still happen...

   

[jshetley]

It looks like a cooler version of the pattern of the pattern we had for most of Oct and Nov is coming back. Little to no rainfall over the next 10 days for most of us.

[packbacker]

Not sure I agree with the sentiment because we live in NC we shouldn't expect snow.  With the bulk of Dec BN that's a good start I guess.   Still hope we can get 7-10 day window sometime this winter that's more conducive to snow.  

I get how the MA is disappointed, they been churning out record winters lately so potentially losing first half of Jan is frustrating I would imagine.  

[FallsLake]

As it goes for indices, this is about as bad as it could look going into January:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

[MikeB_01]

16 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

As it goes for indices, this is about as bad as it could look going into January:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

Hi, 

I am a weather enthusiast and just trying to keep up and learn. I started following this forum to do just that. What do you what are some key things you are looking for when looking at these indicies?  I understand the negative and positive, but do not understand what one indicie being negative means for our patterns. Thanks for any help that anyone is willing to share.

[Jonathan]

21 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

As it goes for indices, this is about as bad as it could look going into January:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

 

It's not even that it's bad at this point. It's just HOW bad it is. Like, when we're getting screwed, we're getting screwed HARD. All the indices are 3+ points in the wrong direction. Not just a little, but a TON in the wrong direction. I don't know that we can come back from this this winter.

[downeastnc]

24 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Not sure I agree with the sentiment because we live in NC we shouldn't expect snow.  With the bulk of Dec BN that's a good start I guess.   Still hope we can get 7-10 day window sometime this winter that's more conducive to snow.  

I get how the MA is disappointed, they been churning out record winters lately so potentially losing first half of Jan is frustrating I would imagine.  

I don't think its about not expecting snow, its about being realistic in those expectations.....if you see snow or other winter p types on more than say 5 days a year in most of NC your doing good, and of those probably only a few are more than a nuisance level event...its not suppose to snow a lot here, heck most of us can get our annual yearly average in one 6" storm. so nothing more than a few time a year is what should be expected but some posters just seem to have over zealous expectations....

I have seen it go from highs in the 60-70's to big snowstorms in a few/one day many many times.....hell it was 80 here less than 24 hrs ago and now its 36 with rain and a chance of freezing rain on elevated surfaces later....even if the pattern goes to crap in Jan most of us still stand the same chance we do any other time to get our annual snowfall IMO....

[Brick Tamland]

2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Love the canceling winter in mid Dec stuff we get every year, most of us are lucky if we see 3-5 days a winter with winter p types and a lot of you act like we are suppose to get snow every other day....I guarantee 90-95% of the mid range threats the models have will not work out, they are not suppose to this is the SE not the NE.....the long range predictions been crap the last few winters.....we don't need blocking to get snow storms.....this Dec has been pretty typical of how winter usually goes cold and dry then warm up and rain that's exactly how winters are in the SE.....personally I am pretty certain we will see our share of snow in the SE, the active pattern with cold shots and storms is a good thing, eventually they will overlap. we have 8-10 weeks of legit winter left for most of us, and the models are all over the place in the mid to long range.....sit back and let it happen.

 

Great post! The models are horrible past 5 days. Sometimes 12 hours out we don't even know what will actually happen if they are showing a chance of a winter storm. The indicies that used to work in the past for giving us the best chance of snow don't seem to work anymore, or at least are not as reliable as they used to be. We saw that last winter. The best the models can do is show if there is a chance or no chance at all when it comes to winter storms around here. What actually happens down the road is anyone's guess, and things can change quickly around here. We have seen that just the past four days. Better to just sit back and just see what happens. 

[FallsLake]

13 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Hi, 

I am a weather enthusiast and just trying to keep up and learn. I started following this forum to do just that. What do you what are some key things you are looking for when looking at these indicies?  I understand the negative and positive, but do not understand what one indicie being negative means for our patterns. Thanks for any help that anyone is willing to share.

Here's a good site (should explain everything):

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/

 

[packbacker]

Foothills down to GSP and into N-GA luck out with the nice wedge on Xmas.  

[Cold Rain]

The argument that the models are horrible past five days holds water when looking at how a specific event might unfold.  But it loses a lot of steam as it relates to the general pattern.  It's not remotely the same situation in that we're not going to wake up tomorrow, starring down the barrel of a cold, wintry pattern beginning in 5 days.

[packbacker]

Today is cold, raw and rainy....week after Xmas is going to feel good though.  

 

[mackerel_sky]

5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Foothills down to GSP and into N-GA luck out with the nice wedge on Xmas.  

It's a lot easier to look at, when you know it's coming! Can't wait to see some of the NOAA 8-14 day outlooks! Should be some heat lovers porn!

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, Cold Rain said:

The argument that the models are horrible past five days holds water when looking at how a specif event might unfold.  But it loses a lot of steam as it relates to the general pattern.  It's not remotely the same situation in that we're not going to wake up tomorrow, starring down the barrel of a cold, wintry pattern beginning in 5 days.

I should have said as far as specifics go. That's why I said the best they can show you is either a chance or no chance. A lot of times that chance can still go away, though, in the coming days. 

[packbacker]

Just now, Cold Rain said:

The argument that the models are horrible past five days holds water when looking at how a specif event might unfold.  But it loses a lot of steam as it relates to the general pattern.  It's not remotely the same situation in that we're not going to wake up tomorrow, starring down the barrel of a cold, wintry pattern beginning in 5 days.

Yep the large hemispherical pattern isn't going to change over night.  

[Jonathan]

1 minute ago, packbacker said:

Yep the large hemispherical pattern isn't going to change over night.  

...or over the next month or so...  

[griteater]

29 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Hi, 

I am a weather enthusiast and just trying to keep up and learn. I started following this forum to do just that. What do you what are some key things you are looking for when looking at these indicies?  I understand the negative and positive, but do not understand what one indicie being negative means for our patterns. Thanks for any help that anyone is willing to share.

A couple more links:

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns

http://madusweather.com/teleconnections/

[mackerel_sky]

14 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Today is cold, raw and rainy....week after Xmas is going to feel good though.  

 

Show the anomalies for the 1-4th of Jan!!

[BristowWx]

25 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Foothills down to GSP and into N-GA luck out with the nice wedge on Xmas.  

Its a warm wedge that's for sure...looks like a giant habanero pepper.  those colors always make it seem like its going to be 110F.

[Cold Rain]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Its a warm wedge that's for sure...looks like a giant habanero pepper.  those colors always make it seem like its going to be 110F.

Haha might as well be.

[Jonathan]

17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Show the anomalies for the 1-4th of Jan!!

 

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Haha might as well be.

CMC has a colder wedge but not the fun kind.  But a wedge seems to show up for Xmas at this point of some kind.  I wonder if EURO will have it too.