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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2016-2017


Cary_Snow95

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1 hour ago, jshetley said:

Yeah i guess they do need cold weather up there for the ski industry. I'll admit I haven't thought too much about that when I say I want warm weather, but still I don't think they need single digits and below 0 to make their snow. 

This is all I think about...

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3 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

I could afford to but NO WAY would I ever ever ever live outside the SE again - much less in California

Why would you never live outside the SE again ? I'm ready to move out of the SE myself. Weather is practically as boring as it is in SD. If I could afford to live anywhere I wanted, I'd probably choose somewhere out west in Colorado or Utah.

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1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Why would you never live outside the SE again ? I'm ready to move out of the SE myself. Weather is practically as boring as it is in SD. If I could afford to live anywhere I wanted, I'd probably choose somewhere out west in Colorado or Utah.

Colorado and Utah are just about perfect....

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JB's back on the hype train! He never stops, it's sickening! On FB, he says torch the next 2 weeks is good and a major analog he's throwing out now is winter 84/85 which was warm into the first half of January, then on the 15th, the bottom fell out and the bathtub sloshed violently! I wish he was right for once!

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

JB's back on the hype train! He never stops, it's sickening! On FB, he says torch the next 2 weeks is good and a major analog he's throwing out now is winter 84/85 which was warm into the first half of January, then on the 15th, the bottom fell out and the bathtub sloshed violently! I wish he was right for once!

I've got a sneaky feeling that this time he might be right..... time will tell.

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

JB's back on the hype train! He never stops, it's sickening! On FB, he says torch the next 2 weeks is good and a major analog he's throwing out now is winter 84/85 which was warm into the first half of January, then on the 15th, the bottom fell out and the bathtub sloshed violently! I wish he was right for once!

Sloshy sloth! 

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**Medium to long range outlook*

Not really a sight for sore eyes. Tomorrow we head back to the freezer for a couple of days and after that is when things begin to moderate back towards a warmer than normal feel. A weak cold front will pass on the 22nd into the 23rd and may bring with it some showers and of course snow for portions of the interior Northeast. After this, a ridge builds over the east in advance of a potent storm that will probably put a dumping of snow somewhere in the Midwest on Christmas day...which unfortunately means....another warmer than normal Christmas for us in the east again this year!

(SEE FIRST IMAGE)

That same ridge then hangs around for a little bit, at least 4-5 days...both the GFS and EURO Ensembles would suggest a little bit longer. Teleconnections back up that theory. The PNA heading negative and AO maintaining its positive phase would verify this upcoming warm spell.

(SEE SECOND AND THIRD IMAGE)

A very ...VERY faint light at the end of the tunnel.....all things change....its winter! Patterns come and go. Teleconnections begin to trend towards a "colder" pattern as we head into the month of January, plus the European weeklies paint a brutal look for the east coast around 10 days into January. Strong ridging into western Canada, Greenland and troughing over the east coast. This would certainly be the best pattern we have seen yet in this short winter season for snow storms on the east coast....keyword short!

(SEE FINAL IMAGE)

In due time my friends!

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29 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Why would you never live outside the SE again ?

B/C of folks. Good folks. Good people. Good manners. Just damn good. And and oh by the way - no condescending accent (unless I 'spose you ain't from around here).      Plus -           well, never mind               if you have to ask.

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Just now, pcbjr said:

B/C of folks. Good folks. Good people. Good manners. Just damn good. And and oh by the way - no condescending accent (unless I 'spose you ain't from around here).      Plus -           well, never mind               if you have to ask.

I've always heard that people in the middle of the country were the nicest. Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, etc.

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1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I've always heard that people in the middle of the country were the nicest. Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, etc.

I always heard and went looking. Looked for years. Looked. Looked some more. Came back. Happy to have done so - in both directions. Happy to be a southerner. But that works for me. Take it from a friend - find your own silver highway ....

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2 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

I always heard and went looking. Looked for years. Looked. Looked some more. Came back. Happy to have done so - in both directions. Happy to be a southerner. But that works for me. Take it from a friend - find your own silver highway ....

Yeah but the thing is, most people in the south are not even native southerners. Especially in Florida !

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26 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

BF, who are these guys? Are they legit??

I don't know who they are? I started following them on FB.....  I think they are METS but not 100% sure? They seem to know what their talking about what time I've been following them. From Burlington, North Carolina. He's been around a while I been following him for a couple years I know.

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1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said:

**Medium to long range outlook*

Not really a sight for sore eyes. Tomorrow we head back to the freezer for a couple of days and after that is when things begin to moderate back towards a warmer than normal feel. A weak cold front will pass on the 22nd into the 23rd and may bring with it some showers and of course snow for portions of the interior Northeast. After this, a ridge builds over the east in advance of a potent storm that will probably put a dumping of snow somewhere in the Midwest on Christmas day...which unfortunately means....another warmer than normal Christmas for us in the east again this year!

(SEE FIRST IMAGE)

That same ridge then hangs around for a little bit, at least 4-5 days...both the GFS and EURO Ensembles would suggest a little bit longer. Teleconnections back up that theory. The PNA heading negative and AO maintaining its positive phase would verify this upcoming warm spell.

(SEE SECOND AND THIRD IMAGE)

A very ...VERY faint light at the end of the tunnel.....all things change....its winter! Patterns come and go. Teleconnections begin to trend towards a "colder" pattern as we head into the month of January, plus the European weeklies paint a brutal look for the east coast around 10 days into January. Strong ridging into western Canada, Greenland and troughing over the east coast. This would certainly be the best pattern we have seen yet in this short winter season for snow storms on the east coast....keyword short!

(SEE FINAL IMAGE)

In due time my friends!

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Nice image, but hour 792! Might as well be talking about winter 3016.

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1 hour ago, pcbjr said:

I always heard and went looking. Looked for years. Looked. Looked some more. Came back. Happy to have done so - in both directions. Happy to be a southerner. But that works for me. Take it from a friend - find your own silver highway ....

PCBJR, I've travelled all over the country.  I live in Colfax NC and I can tell you there's no other place I'd rather live.  We have winter weather (not a lot, but some), we have beautiful beaches and good saltwater fishing just 3-4 hours away.  NC mountains are a couple of hours away with good trout fishing and cooler temps if you want them in the summer.  Now, I'm lucky from the standpoint I get to travel quite a bit and experience snow while on business.  2 weeks ago I was in Seattle and experienced snow and ice out there and just last week I was in N Illinois up to Madison WI and I saw plenty of snow and it was cold - a bit either side of 0.  So, I'm able to quench my winter weather appetite a bit more than others.  Having said that, there's nothing worse than being on the road while a winter storm hits back home.  Just last year I was in Las Vegas when the January storm hit the triad area.  I lost loads of sleep that week as I watched all the models come in for days and give GSO 15"+  of snow.  It seemed to be one for the record books but sleet and lower qpf killed that one. 

Regardless, the south (southeast) is a special place.  I'd never live anywhere else. 

TW

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For cold and snow, the UK depends on -AO/-NAO even more than we do.  2009-2010 and early 2010-2011 winters were big for them.  They've been a little above normal thus far in Dec

5xn39w.gif&key=bcc4763e5911f2fac0575a673933a6b55755bd57bff19e0e0bb8aafd3a64f02c


I think I heard it from JB first, but usually when they have fun, so so we. Usually ends up being ridging over the Atlantic separating both the troughs....hence east coast and nw Europe fun.
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For cold and snow, the UK depends on -AO/-NAO even more than we do.  2009-2010 and early 2010-2011 winters were big for them.  They've been a little above normal thus far in Dec

5xn39w.gif&key=bcc4763e5911f2fac0575a673933a6b55755bd57bff19e0e0bb8aafd3a64f02c


I think I heard it from JB first, but usually when they have fun, so so we. Usually ends up being ridging over the Atlantic separating both the troughs....hence east coast and nw Europe fun.
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Is interesting seeing the ensembles move toward the strong +PDO Dec analog look.  Maybe we are just running a couple of weeks behind the Jan analog pattern.  

IMG_3431.PNG

IMG_3481.PNG


Interesting I have this for Dec weak Nina +pdo
571c25eeaa017f3bbabb101be8319111.png

January
5792e629541df382a50537a0505998f6.png

e1e59727293b31fb94a1f1d8c16eca7d.jpg
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Is interesting seeing the ensembles move toward the strong +PDO Dec analog look.  Maybe we are just running a couple of weeks behind the Jan analog pattern.  

IMG_3431.PNG

IMG_3481.PNG


Interesting I have this for Dec weak Nina +pdo
571c25eeaa017f3bbabb101be8319111.png

January
5792e629541df382a50537a0505998f6.png

e1e59727293b31fb94a1f1d8c16eca7d.jpg
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