bhamwx205 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 GEFS looks pretty good...but the supposedly #2 best ensemble is the CMC. It's warmer in the SE as it keeps the SER stronger and doesn't have the -NAO. Let's see who wins... the Canadian ensensembles also were hell bent on a GOA trough and were last to Alaska ridge idea . Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 41 minutes ago, Wow said: why? No real storms showing up. Supposedly no one looks past day 5 on an op run, but when it showed back to back storms last night, everybody was giddy! So yeah, the ensembles and blocking and etc, look decent, guess my comment was in regards to specific storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 38 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said: Time him out please. Time in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 No real storms showing up. Supposedly no one looks past day 5 on an op run, but when it showed back to back storms last night, everybody was giddy! So yeah, the ensembles and blocking and etc, look decent, guess my comment was in regards to specific storms.who said no one looks past day 5? hell I even said I still look. but looking at the surface to try and get an idea of where things are going is silly. what happens at the surface is DIRECT result of what is happening at H5. the gfs spits out surface ideas all the time that don't match the look at H5 Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 7 minutes ago, bhamwx205 said: who said no one looks past day 5? hell I even said I still look. but looking at the surface to try and get an idea of where things are going is silly. what happens at the surface is DIRECT result of what is happening at H5. the gfs spits out surface ideas all the time that don't match the look at H5 Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 I'd guess our current best shot per the GEFS would be somewhere in and around the JAN 4-8 frame with that broad trough. Something could sneak through the southern stream under that big trough axis and make a lot of folks happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 When was the last time a two week ensemble run in Jan showed the piedmont of NC with more mean snowfall then Boston. Pigs do fly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 We are fortunate that all it takes is a few inches of snow and we are at climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We are fortunate that all it takes is a few inches of snow and we are at climo A true blessing and a curse, I might add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, superjames1992 said: A true blessing and a curse, I might add. Things just got real! When SJ shows up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Things just got real! When SJ shows up!! Where I live now, a single flake would put me above climo. I am am interested in how my analysis will change this year. Will I be more objective because I no longer have skin in the game, or will I become a bittercaster? Anyways, in all seriousness it does look like there is at least some potential in the ~10 day timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 7 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: Where I live now, a single flake would put me above climo. I am am interested in how my analysis will change this year. Will I be more objective because I no longer have skin in the game, or will I become a bittercaster? Anyways, in all seriousness it does look like there is at least some potential in the ~10 day timeframe. At least you're in the hurricane sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Lol the pattern has gotten to some people. The Euro is dang impressive for the cold centered in the upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 10 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Lol the pattern has gotten to some people. The Euro is dang impressive for the cold centered in the upper Midwest. Hey now! Where have we heard that before?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 With regards to the day 9-10 system, both GFS and EC now agree on a TN Valley/Apps runner, which, given the overall pattern, makes more sense than what the EC was showing last night for the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 12 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Lol the pattern has gotten to some people. The Euro is dang impressive for the cold centered in the upper Midwest. And that is where it will stay. Some cold maybe into the lower Mississippi valley and to the Ohio river, but not down in AL, GA, NC, or SC. We have to wait until Feb here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Hey, at 240 on the Euro, the 0C 850 line is almost into the SE! Cold pushing east. If it only went out another 24 hours, we'd almost be in the icebox! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Hey, at 240 on the Euro, the 0C 850 line is almost into the SE! Cold pushing east. If it only went out another 24 hours, we'd almost be in the icebox! It actually looks very promising. I would take that look any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: It actually looks very promising. I would take that look any day. We'll probably get to take a few more. We've taken a lot of 10 day good looks so far. I'm optimistic about mid-Jan, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 17 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Hey now! Where have we heard that before?! Lol all winter! $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 15 minutes ago, jshetley said: And that is where it will stay. Some cold maybe into the lower Mississippi valley and to the Ohio river, but not down in AL, GA, NC, or SC. You missed a State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 16 minutes ago, jshetley said: And that is where it will stay. Some cold maybe into the lower Mississippi valley and to the Ohio river, but not down in AL, GA, NC, or SC. We have to wait until Feb here. Mid month bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Get used to this look. It's almost comical, in a depressing, twisted way. Who exactly would "take this look any day?" Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: It actually looks very promising. I would take that look any day. I think it may be rushed myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, Jonathan said: Get used to this look. It's almost comical, in a depressing, twisted way. Who exactly would "take this look any day?" Terrible. I'm looking to buy land in Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Chill out guys, I heard the same doom and gloom last december and a bunch of cliff divers only to see 19" imy on January 23. I agree with met from my analysis mid January is when we hopefully get the party started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 5 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Get used to this look. It's almost comical, in a depressing, twisted way. Who exactly would "take this look any day?" Terrible. The slow bleed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, Cold Rain said: The slow bleed. There a front in there. So hr 252 would look better. Just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The slow bleed. By the time it "bleeds" to the coast, the trough is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: There a front in there. So hr 252 would look better. Just sayin It *should* look better. But I guess my question is how do we know that cold at D10 is not grossly overdone like it usually is at D10? What's going to make it so this particular D10+ cold pattern makes it into the SE, instead of devolving into the meh-ness of its predecessors so far this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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