mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Don't know how the GFS para has been doing!? But it's not anything like the 0z or 6z GFS runs, on its 00z run! But if I remember correctly, it's been off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Ensembles are very active day 10" in the east/se...just need to get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 hours ago, packbacker said: Yep, agree. We may be wishing for some 60's if the ensembles are correct for day 10-15. Curious to see how well these day 11-12 temps verify. So, can we go ahead and throw this euro out? (sarcasm) One negative that i find with the Euro is it doesn't show the SER being around at all, which I do not think is a possibility. I guess it's possible it could weaken but the SER has killed us for a couple of winters now and I don't think it will stop. If the SER is anywhere near as strong as it was being shown the past few days, I think we would be lucky if the cold made it over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Day 9-10 EC tracks a Gulf low off the Carolina coast, but temps are too warm verbatim on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 22 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Funny you not posting the 5,6,7th anomalies! I was only making the point that that particular hour didn't "change 6 hours later" that's it and that's all lol. Now I'm up to 40" of300hr+ snow. I need a fantasy shovel! Trends look encouraging today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Day 9-10 EC tracks a Gulf low off the Carolina coast, but temps are too warm verbatim on the model. That's a monster of a system. Verbatim IP in northern counties. Wouldn't take much to trend colder. That would be a heck of a system. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 24 minutes ago, Poimen said: Day 9-10 EC tracks a Gulf low off the Carolina coast, but temps are too warm verbatim on the model. But it's one heck of a system. VA could be in the game on that one. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 hour ago, Jon said: Ok this is what you guys needed. Yes it's fantasy but now you can believe! Back-to-back storms on the 00z and 6z GFS. Woohoo! Sweet spot...and only 300+ hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 55 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: So, can we go ahead and throw this euro out? (sarcasm) One negative that i find with the Euro is it doesn't show the SER being around at all, which I do not think is a possibility. I guess it's possible it could weaken but the SER has killed us for a couple of winters now and I don't think it will stop. If the SER is anywhere near as strong as it was being shown the past few days, I think we would be lucky if the cold made it over the mountains. If we didn't have blocking over the top with PV lobe dropping into HB we would have a SER. This will back off some time and we will see a return of the SER. Edit: that's assuming this modeled pattern pans out, don't want to spike the football on day 10+ patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 36 minutes ago, Jon said: That's a monster of a system. Verbatim IP in northern counties. Wouldn't take much to trend colder. That would be a heck of a system. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk If anything, I think that second shortwave back around Texas/Arkansas would be more promising in that sort of pattern. Maybe it'd be a bit too north verbatim, but that first system shown would be well-positioned as a nice big 50/50 low, which would fix the cold air issue provided we get a good track. Really, I'm just happy to see the potential for snow now, regardless of whether it actually materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 26 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Woohoo! Sweet spot...and only 300+ hours out Looks about right! I'm in the 1" zone! Perfect for a 10 day storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Point is the models have been honking about the 1/7 to 1/9 time period for a while. Definitely needs watching since they are showing the opportunity for a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Fairly obvious but it's going to be a two week warm up for potential return to cold. Let's hope this cold pattern locks in a little longer this time, hopefully a good 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Fairly obvious but it's going to be a two week warm up for potential return to cold. Let's hope this cold pattern locks in a little longer this time, hopefully a good 10 days. It only takes 1 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 14 minutes ago, packbacker said: Fairly obvious but it's going to be a two week warm up for potential return to cold. Let's hope this cold pattern locks in a little longer this time, hopefully a good 10 days. Looks like about 25-30% of the NH is below normal, 60-65% is above normal, and 5-10% is normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Looks like about 30% of the NH is below normal, 60% is above normal, and 10% is normal. England looks to get record breaking, unprecedented cold!!? Per JB they better break out their short knickers!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 hours ago, msuwx said: Followed by wall to wall CONUS cold 3 days later. Warm air ahead of arctic plunge. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Don't know how the GFS para has been doing!? But it's not anything like the 0z or 6z GFS runs, on its 00z run! But if I remember correctly, it's been off The Para has been scoring better at the H5 than the regular GFS. Jon has posted many verification scores about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 12z GFS ought to temper enthusiasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 12z GFS ought to temper enthusiasm Up and down, back and forth. It will change in 6 hours lol. Congratulations to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 12z GFS ought to temper enthusiasm Still shows potent -NAO. Not sure what you are looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: England looks to get record breaking, unprecedented cold!!? Per JB they better break out their short knickers!! They're gonna freeze their biscuits off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, WXinCanton said: Still shows potent -NAO. Not sure what you are looking at? That's great and all, but will it happen? Even so, will it bring snow /ice? That's what I'm looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That's great and all, but will it happen? Even so, will it bring snow /ice? That's what I'm looking at Gotcha. I don't look much at the surface beyond 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Gotcha. I don't look much at the surface beyond 200 hours.Looking at the surface post day 3 is crazy in my opinion. sure we all like to see fun fantasy storms . H5 is all that matters at this point and the 12z gfs didn't dissapoint Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 12z GFS ought to temper enthusiasm why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 5 minutes ago, Wow said: why? Time him out please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 6 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said: Time him out please. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 GEFS looks pretty good...but the supposedly #2 best ensemble is the CMC. It's warmer in the SE as it keeps the SER stronger and doesn't have the -NAO. Let's see who wins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEFS looks pretty good...but the supposedly #2 best ensemble is the CMC. It's warmer in the SE as it keeps the SER stronger and doesn't have the -NAO. Let's see who wins... CMC is only good for forecasting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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