Mid-Long Range Discussion 2016-2017

[Daniel Boone]

9 hours ago, packbacker said:

Impressive blocking over the top but still with -PNA means warm east.  May need a reshuffle with pattern again in mid/late Jan to give us chances down the road.  

The weeklies essentially showed this pattern rotting like this for next 6 weeks.

-pna most of time does equate to cold West/warm East but not always pack. If there's strong blocking you can have cold West and East I.e; 1978-79. However, rare and unlikely.

[nomanslandva]

Is there anything new with analogs? EPS has one cold shot around new years weekend and GEFS has a second one late week 2 that looks a little better placement wise but it fades too. Our day 8 chance looks like a rainer now (unless something flips back...and everything this year has trended 100% wrong) so we are out to day 12 or something like that for the next threat.  

[Jonathan]

23 minutes ago, nomanslandva said:

Is there anything new with analogs? EPS has one cold shot around new years weekend and GEFS has a second one late week 2 that looks a little better placement wise but it fades too. Our day 8 chance looks like a rainer now (unless something flips back...and everything this year has trended 100% wrong) so we are out to day 12 or something like that for the next threat.  

We're out to February on our next threat. lolz All the promise shown on the models the last few days is gone. We shouldn't have allowed them to fool us. Even with it being the most neutral La Nina imaginable, we're still totally locked in a Nina pattern. It will drive the pattern just as the super Nino did last winter.

[Cold Rain]

23 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

That's been the pattern this year.  We get one or two days in a row of model runs showing favorable patterns setting up in the LR getting everyone excited, only to watch them evolve into meh patterns in subsequent runs.  Hopefully, we can start to see something nice work into the 5 day range so we can get excited for real.

 

9 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

We're out to February on our next threat. lolz All the promise shown on the models the last few days is gone. We shouldn't have allowed them to fool us. Even with it being the most neutral La Nina imaginable, we're still totally locked in a Nina pattern. It will drive the pattern just as the super Nino did last winter.

[Cold Rain]

On a brighter note, Mack said he'd take normal all winter long.  It looks to be close to that for the foreseeable future, so he should be happy!

I don't get how such a weak, muddy, fading, diffuse Nina can jack up the pattern so bad and lock in such a poor state for so long.

[Jonathan]

19 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't get how such a weak, muddy, fading, diffuse Nina can jack up the pattern so bad and lock in such a poor state for so long.

Same. There has to be other culprits at work. Quick, someone invent a new index we can blame this on! 

[PisgahNCWeather]

8 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

I don't get how such a weak, muddy, fading, diffuse Nina can jack up the pattern so bad and lock in such a poor state for so long.

It's got Shetley on it's side. It will be the strongest weak La Niña on record. 

[fountainguy97]

46 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

We're out to February on our next threat. lolz All the promise shown on the models the last few days is gone. We shouldn't have allowed them to fool us. Even with it being the most neutral La Nina imaginable, we're still totally locked in a Nina pattern. It will drive the pattern just as the super Nino did last winter.

Next threat of what exactly? Lol your throwing January out because of what? A pattern that's not THE pattern for the East coast?  Gfs and cmc both singaling a possible storm threat the first few days of January. Don't see any point in throwing January out at all. 

[mackerel_sky]

31 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Same. There has to be other culprits at work. Quick, someone invent a new index we can blame this on! 

B- bathtub

S- slosh

I-  index

Brought to you by the makers of the "Pioneer" model!

[mackerel_sky]

Don't see what all the crying is about?? Y'all NC peeps have your storm on the 5th!! Don't worry about temps or important details right now

edit: Euro gives us three cold days from 1-3rd, then goes back to western trough! So what, enjoy the weather, because it's the only weather you got!

[Jon]

Before we get too carried away with the bashing.... could someone post some verification scores on the para vs. other models?

For starters here's seasonal verification between models for PSML over the US (which many try to argue the GFS does better and try to discount the verification score at 500mb)

As you can see, the Euro scores the coup during winter with the smallest standard deviation being the EPS (little black hatch line above the bar)

Next, last year verification for PSML and separated by day. Again, Euro has been king.

Model performance has been dreadful the last few days over the US across the board Day 5. Map looks similar with a Day 3 lead.

Sorry if any of these images are out of order, doing this on mobile sucks.

[Jon]

Verification at Northern Hemisphere 500mb

Day 10


Day 8


Day 5


Day 3


Purple PRX = Parallel (new) GFS



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[No snow for you]

9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

B- bathtub

S- slosh

I-  index

Brought to you by the makers of the "Pioneer" model!

Any ideas what the Brick 2000 has to say? So far I bet it has the highest verification score. 

[packbacker]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

On a brighter note, Mack said he'd take normal all winter long.  It looks to be close to that for the foreseeable future, so he should be happy!

I don't get how such a weak, muddy, fading, diffuse Nina can jack up the pattern so bad and lock in such a poor state for so long.

Well we got a strong -EPO with a weak NAO....and we still furnace.  Hmmm...have to wonder if it's just not our winter.   Still long ways to go...would think we fluke into a 1-2" deal sometime this winter.  

 

[mackerel_sky]

^^^^ 

looks like all the colors are opposite of where we need them to be!?

[mackerel_sky]

New para says we are game on for the 7th threat! GFS and Para vs Euro! Wonder how that will work out!?

[franklin NCwx]

1 hour ago, Jonathan said:

We're out to February on our next threat. lolz All the promise shown on the models the last few days is gone. We shouldn't have allowed them to fool us. Even with it being the most neutral La Nina imaginable, we're still totally locked in a Nina pattern. It will drive the pattern just as the super Nino did last winter.

To be fair, the ensembles never really looked good. It was just a few 10 day op runs people got excited about.

[Batman]

2 hours ago, Jonathan said:

We're out to February on our next threat. lolz All the promise shown on the models the last few days is gone. We shouldn't have allowed them to fool us. Even with it being the most neutral La Nina imaginable, we're still totally locked in a Nina pattern. It will drive the pattern just as the super Nino did last winter.

One of the most amazing statements I have ever heard on this board and that says a lot. From a dude in Virginia???????

I'll go back to read only and head scratching often now.

[BristowWx]

23 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

To be fair, the ensembles never really looked good. It was just a few 10 day op runs people got excited about.

I don't think the neutral Nina is driving the Atlantic.  Even a neg PNA could be serviceable with a solid neg NAO.  But thinking we go to Feb without anything seems premature on 24 Dec.  I hope I am correct on this line of thinking.

[mackerel_sky]

I wonder if Pack can spare some pre-emergent?? I'm gonna need it next week! My Bermuda is starting to green up!

[tnweathernut]

I wonder how many -EPO -NAO maps in the past have featured a trough not only in the west, but centered OFF the west coast..... I realize it's only "modeled" at this point, but I would have to think it's not very common.

[Jon]

I wonder how many -EPO -NAO maps in the past have featured a trough not only in the west, but centered OFF the west coast..... I realize it's only "modeled" at this point, but I would have to think it's not very common.

Looks like a Rex block

[franklin NCwx]

11 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I wonder how many -EPO -NAO maps in the past have featured a trough not only in the west, but centered OFF the west coast..... I realize it's only "modeled" at this point, but I would have to think it's not very common.

It's probably a brief western trough and temps wouldn't be too warm here. We really need the Atlantic ridge to come west some to really help us.

[packbacker]

44 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I wonder if Pack can spare some pre-emergent?? I'm gonna need it next week! My Bermuda is starting to green up!

This is impressive...+20F temp departures.  

[Brick Tamland]

1 hour ago, No snow for you said:

Any ideas what the Brick 2000 has to say? So far I bet it has the highest verification score. 

Might as well. You can't depend on the models past five days. All the indicies and patterns that people looked at from the past to give us a good chance at winter storms don't seem to apply here anymore. As long as temps stay normal and we still get some shots of below normal then we still have a chance at getting a winter storm. That's about all you can say for winter here. As long as we don't go way above normal and things stay active, we should have just as good of a chance as any other time to get a storm here. I think we score at least one good one in January.

[Brick Tamland]

7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

This is impressive...+20F temp departures.  

And three days later it could be 20 degrees below normal. That's how winter is here. And all month whenever a big warm up has been shown in the long range it has ended up backing off later anyway. I don't get why people get so doom and gloom about these.

[packbacker]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

And three days later it could be 20 degrees below normal. That's how winter is here. And all month whenever a big warm up has been shown in the long range it has ended up backing off later anyway. I don't get why people get so doom and gloom about these.

Who's doom and gloom...looks good to me.  

[Cold Rain]

17 minutes ago, packbacker said:

This is impressive...+20F temp departures.  

Looks very CFSish.

[franklin NCwx]

Lol...

[packbacker]

GEFS goes block happy, building a -AO with a weak -NAO.  It's hell bent on that trough just off the coast...wondering if that cool tongue is triggering that.