bhamwx205 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Euro, same ole , same ole! 2-3 day cold shot , then warm up! No wintry threats! huge difference with the western energy between the gfs and euro which causes the warmer vs cooler solutions Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Impressive blocking over the top but still with -PNA means warm east. May need a reshuffle with pattern again in mid/late Jan to give us chances down the road. The weeklies essentially showed this pattern rotting like this for next 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Impressive blocking over the top but still with -PNA means warm east. May need a reshuffle with pattern again in mid/late Jan to give us chances down the road. The weeklies essentially showed this pattern rotting like this for next 6 weeks. If the N Atlantic ridge could shift west and give us some blocking that would help. If we could get it to shift to the Davis straits we could take a chance with the -pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 As right as he's been - does this rather mean we get it on this side of the ocean? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Joe Bastardi Verified account @BigJoeBastardi Wake Up Western Europe.. EURO says Eurasian Vortex backs into Scandinavia. Ice Age Now! blast day 11-20 in cards. What flip! 5-10v10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 12z para looks cold from 5-7th , for what it's worth, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 18z GFS going for a New Years miracle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlweatherman Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: 18z GFS going for a New Years miracle! If you look at the last 3 runs of the GFS, it's been consistent at hinting at a possible SE Winter Storm around New Years. Let's see if other models catch on and if the trend holds, we may have a real Winter Storm threat to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 8:12 AM, fountainguy97 said: I'm actually liking the first week of January. Gfs for a couple days now has shown a lot of activity in that time frame. 500mb energy is much more aggressive come the first week of January and we are finally seeing some ridging and troughing across the US. WATCH the system that u see down in Texas at hour 228 it's got a nice blob of energy to work with but is suppressed into oblivion. I promise you in 2-3 days it won't be suppressed anymore. And might actually have some blocking to help it out. Gfs has hinted at this system more or less since it was in the 360 hr range. I like the looks so far given the normal model trends of less suppression. Timing has changed a tad but still the same system I mentioned. Latest GFS runs have trended in the right direction. That upper air chart isn't too shabby. ridge needs to be a tad more east but hey Ill take this look just outside of 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 23, 2016 Author Share Posted December 23, 2016 The cmc hinted at the same storm system today at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Picked this up from DT years ago - seems apropos this year - Merry Christmas, Folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Novice opinion here. If given the NW trend we're looking at an apps/lakes cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 The para GFS is my new favorite model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 12 minutes ago, packbacker said: The para GFS is my new favorite model. pack - you're making it a good evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Pack, that's some cold air regardless if precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 ^ It looks great. Unfortunately, a parallel to garbage is still garbage...just on the next street over. What we need is a perpendicular model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 ^ It looks great. Unfortunately, a parallel to garbage is still garbage...just on the next street over. What we need is a perpendicular model!Actually, if I'm not mistaken the GFS Para is the new and improved version of the GFS pretty soon it will be the GFS around 2019?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 I somehow missed the introduction of the "para GFS". What is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^ It looks great. Unfortunately, a parallel to garbage is still garbage...just on the next street over. What we need is a perpendicular model! Before we get too carried away with the bashing.... could someone post some verification scores on the para vs. other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I somehow missed the introduction of the "para GFS". What is it? The annual GFS update. They test it out for a few months. And when they determine it's just as bad as the current GFS, it goes into general release. TiltedStorm has it right above, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Before we get too carried away with the bashing.... could someone post some verification scores on the para vs. other models? It probably fairly well in the short range. But they have all been sucking wind in the LR this year. Anyway, we'll see if it's continued cold look holds serve and moves in closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Novice opinion here. If given the NW trend we're looking at an apps/lakes cutter very novice indeed that is cold chasing moisture its not cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It probably fairly well in the short range. But they have all been sucking wind in the LR this year. Anyway, we'll see if it's continued cold look holds serve and moves in closer. Yep, this will be a good test for it. Heck, if it scores a win, we might give it some weight when things get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Yep, this will be a good test for it. Heck, if it scores a win, we might give it some weight when things get interesting. Definitely true! Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Actually, if I'm not mistaken the GFS Para is the new and improved version of the GFS pretty soon it will be the GFS around 2019?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalkno it will be the new gfs in 2017. in 2019 the gfs gets replaced completely and there will be no more GFS ever !!!Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 no it will be the new gfs in 2017. in 2019 the gfs gets replaced completely and there will be no more GFS ever !!!Sent from my SM-G900V using TapatalkThanks for the correction. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Thanks for the correction. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalkthey are replacing the GFS with the NGGPS whatever the heck that is. The way I understand it is its a brand new model that NOAA is building or has already built Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 26 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said: very novice indeed that is cold chasing moisture its not cold enough Better than warm chasing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: ^ It looks great. Unfortunately, a parallel to garbage is still garbage...just on the next street over. What we need is a perpendicular model! Actually, verifying better than the "real" GFS at 500mb, according to Jon. I don't have the scores. Also I forgot what the lead time was. 1 hour ago, TiltedStorm said: Actually, if I'm not mistaken the GFS Para is the new and improved version of the GFS pretty soon it will be the GFS around 2019? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Sometime in 2017 actually, if I'm not mistaken. 1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Before we get too carried away with the bashing.... could someone post some verification scores on the para vs. other models? At 500mb (these maps), better than the GFS but not as good as EURO. Not sure about lead time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 58 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Better than warm chasing rain Amazing - nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 GFS is ok, just delayed to the 3rd now! It's happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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