Jon Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 22 minutes ago, Wow said: Euro still looks good. Look for an early Jan threat. BINGO! all the rest of you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jon said: BINGO! Rx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 4 minutes ago, Jon said: BINGO! all the rest of you... If I was in the mid Atlantic region, I'd be tickled pink!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 7 minutes ago, Jon said: BINGO! all the rest of you... Haha you know I'm just playing around! I'm loving the strong highs that keep showing up this season so far. We get some blocking and it's game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Still in a wait and see mode. Very nice though to have at least the Euro starting to show a better pattern as we head into primetime SE winter (early January). Let's get the GFS to agree along with the ensembles, keep them into the short range and yes, this place will be rockin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 22, 2016 Author Share Posted December 22, 2016 The 12z CMC and Euro are quite similiar.... 12z CMC 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 22, 2016 Author Share Posted December 22, 2016 Nice to see agreement even at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Unfortunately the ensembles look like this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: Unfortunately the ensembles look like this. There's always a snake in the woodpile and grit in the gearbox .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Days are getting longer. Sun is getting higher in the sky. We better reel one in before it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 15 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Unfortunately the ensembles look like this.. That's still a stout -EPO/-NAO and poleward ridging. This is leaps and bounds better than what we have now. I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Days are getting longer. Sun is getting higher in the sky. We better reel one in before it's too late. By the sun angle theory alone, we should only receive snow between September and December as the sun makes it descent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Sure is a lot of HP where we want it and lower pressures where we want them too. This verbatim is a torch east of Miss. on the EPS though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Sure is a lot of HP where we want it and lower pressures where we want them too. This verbatim is a torch east of Miss. on the EPS though... Explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: Sure is a lot of HP where we want it and lower pressures where we want them too. This verbatim is a torch east of Miss. on the EPS though... Do you ever see anything without looking through torch colored glasses!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 35 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Unfortunately the ensembles look like this.. I expect the EPS to correct towards the OP eventually, I believe the OP is hitting here. 12z 1/20 run centered 00z 01/1/17 Compared to latest run same date: Eventually the ridge will be squashed. You see compared to the OP, the feature in the Pacific is growing deeper (more anomalous) and will eventually be separate from the troughing. When this happens the ridge has no where else to correct but west, as the super positive heights just east of Greenland are solidified. The PV has nowhere to go but settle east just south of Hudson Bay, and the -EPO will lead the way. Edit: had a fight with the images, should be right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Do you ever see anything without looking through torch colored glasses!? That's what you took from my post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Just a wish-casting, on the Euro @216 I'd want to see the southern ULL stuck over CA stronger and faster moving into TX and the northern s/w over the N plains weaker which would place a sfc low near the GOM and HP spread all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 33 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Explain. Good ensemble agreement on -PNA with atl-r/ser continuing. Need that PV lobe to slide east of HB, not west of it. Hopefully all we need is some patience for later on in Jan. Still lots to like about what the ensembles are showing. Parts of Europe look cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 12z para GFS...this is where we want the PV lobe! This para sure is a cold loving model....might need to work out the kinks in the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 ^ Notice the low anomaly out in the Pacific, east of HI. That is exactly what we want to see...not a big positively tilted, full-latitude trough. That low allows a ridge to form in the west, which, along with the -EPO, allows cold air to sink south and the SER to get squashed/displaced east. PS: Can't wait for the crappy Weeklies report later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 12z para GFS...this is where we want the PV lobe! This para sure is a cold loving model....might need to work out the kinks in the model.Surprisingly still verifying better than old GFS at NH 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 38 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^ Notice the low anomaly out in the Pacific, east of HI. That is exactly what we want to see...not a big positively tilted, full-latitude trough. That low allows a ridge to form in the west, which, along with the -EPO, allows cold air to sink south and the SER to get squashed/displaced east. PS: Can't wait for the crappy Weeklies report later! Weeklies can't get much worse then Monday's run....or can they Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Weeklies can't get much worse then Monday's run....or can they Haha there's always room for worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Haha there's always room for worse. Models are kind of block happy today...the 18z GFS is always fun run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 18z looks a lot warmer toward new year to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Maybe it's my pessimistic imganination. Block looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: 18z looks a lot warmer toward new year to me You just took the "Merry" out of my son getting home. Then though, it is 18Z .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Just now, BristowWx said: Maybe it's my pessimistic imganination. Block looks better Well the ridge is off the coast so cold is centered in the central conus but yeah I think anyone would take there chance with that block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 18z GFS looking good. Big -NAO block by day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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