Jon Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Is this the snowcover/ SOI guy!?? Yes. haha. He's posted model runs of SSW's that have never come to fruition, that's why I posted his blog post with the important anecdote "rather than towards the equator when the opposite will occur - the PV strengthens"....the GFS OP has fooled us 100 times when it comes to SSW's, but it's still interesting as SSW's are favored in Jan over any other month (I believe, I posted a lot on this last year...don't really recall my graphs or data but it was all on El Ninos...I'll have to find that paper and see the rate/frequency of SSW's in La Ninas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 54 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Need to back up that western ridge a smudge!! I think E NC and up through MA, could score with that look and we all know we don't want that!! Well some of "we" would be ok with that......the pattern doesn't look nearly as bad as it did a few days ago and the trend is our friend, we still have 8-10 solid weeks of legit winter left for most of the SE basically Jan 1 to March 15th, there will be several winter storms in the SE by March 15th.....not everyone will score but then again thats how it always is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 19 minutes ago, Jon said: Yes. haha. He's posted model runs of SSW's that have never come to fruition, that's why I posted his blog post with the important anecdote "rather than towards the equator when the opposite will occur - the PV strengthens"....the GFS OP has fooled us 100 times when it comes to SSW's, but it's still interesting as SSW's are favored in Jan over any other month (I believe, I posted a lot on this last year...don't really recall my graphs or data but it was all on El Ninos...I'll have to find that paper and see the rate/frequency of SSW's in La Ninas) I have a newbie question about these SSW events, and I hope I can word it correctly. So, SSWs help elongate, or even split, the PV. But doesn't blocking sort of "guide" where it goes once it splits? Is there a relation between blocking and SSW events? Is it even possible to get a SSW/PV split with a +AO/+NAO/-PNA combo? It would seem as though if nothing else, we'd have to have a -AO (poleward blocking) at the very least in order for the PV to truly "split." I hope that makes sense. I guess in a nutshell, I'm asking how SSW events relate (or interact) with blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 A 985 mb bomb in the lakes on Boxing Day, on 12z GFS!! Pattern Canger?? apparently not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 12z GFS hour 384 doesn't disappoint! I have snow in mby! And some moisture hanging back along gulf coast??? Multi day event out to day 17,18, 19 ? noice!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 The 12z GFS is awfully dry. We have not had much rain where I am in 2 weeks and the GFS says it continues for the next 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 GEFS trying to cheat me out my warmth we all want... -EPO, weak block and neutral NAO. The SER looks to be stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Euro holds serve! A beautiful trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Euro holds serve! A beautiful trough in the east. What hour? For how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 7 minutes ago, pcbjr said: What hour? For how long? 8 (192)days through the end of run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Looks like our friends in the mountains will be happy. 2-day NWFS event after that D7-8 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 What hour? For how long?Day 7-10, won't be AN if this happens! Also, ridging prior and 2mT trending weaker and colder Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 That's a really funky look. There's an old quote from a famous poster back on WWBB that comes to mind here: "The angle of the cold is all wrong." -jxdama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Euro looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 European has been awful. Why would anyone buy what it's selling in the long range. Good sign but based on the performance this year it's been garbage compared to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 8 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: European has been awful. Why would anyone buy what it's selling in the long range. Good sign but based on the performance this year it's been garbage compared to the gfs. Both models have sucked grapes in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 12 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: European has been awful. Why would anyone buy what it's selling in the long range. Good sign but based on the performance this year it's been garbage compared to the gfs. Statistically speaking, the Euro was scoring a little over 90% at day 5, which was almost 5% better than the GFS. Does anyone have that NCEP link showing model verification scores. The Euro usually does pretty well at 500 with the larger scale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 28 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: European has been awful. Why would anyone buy what it's selling in the long range. Good sign but based on the performance this year it's been garbage compared to the gfs. It is not what it is "selling". It is that it is 'different'. Meaning 'the torch' is not necessarily imminent now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 That's the problem...EURO is only a little over 90% it takes 100% to be right about winter storms in the S/E. It shows fantasy storms just like the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 12z eps goes towards the gefs . Building higher heights over Alaska and towards the pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 18 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said: That's the problem...EURO is only a little over 90% it takes 100% to be right about winter storms in the S/E. It shows fantasy storms just like the rest. Yeah, I'm not talking about winter storms. I just want to get the large scale features right. After that we can look for a storm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 41 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: European has been awful. Why would anyone buy what it's selling in the long range. Good sign but based on the performance this year it's been garbage compared to the gfs. Please explain, verification/correlation says otherwise. 27 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Statistically speaking, the Euro was scoring a little over 90% at day 5, which was almost 5% better than the GFS. Does anyone have that NCEP link showing model verification scores. The Euro usually does pretty well at 500 with the larger scale features. Little tired of the anti-euro IMBY thinking. A global model can't always hit with mesoscale specifics. RIDICULOUS this keeps coming up. Euro rules GFS in the NH, period. I've posted the verification charts from WxBell before...there's no contest. Along with what CR said, , by 10 days, Euro verification is around 50% but I can guarantee that's much better than the GFS at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 minute ago, Jon said: Little tired of the anti-euro IMBY thinking. A global model can't always hit with mesoscale specifics. RIDICULOUS this keeps coming up. Euro rules GFS in the NH, period. I've posted the verification charts from WxBell before...there's no contest. Along with what CR said, , by 10 days, Euro verification is around 50% but I can guarantee that's much better than the GFS at that range. I agree. It happens every year, but it is what it is. It's nice to see some agreement in the longer range regarding help in the Pacific. Now if we could ever get the Atlantic to cooperate (before I am too old to play in the snow) at the same time, we'd be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 39 minutes ago, Jon said: Please explain, verification/correlation says otherwise. Little tired of the anti-euro IMBY thinking. A global model can't always hit with mesoscale specifics. RIDICULOUS this keeps coming up. Euro rules GFS in the NH, period. I've posted the verification charts from WxBell before...there's no contest. Along with what CR said, , by 10 days, Euro verification is around 50% but I can guarantee that's much better than the GFS at that range. We seem to find it hard not to continually conflate individual storm progs at nebulous time frames with measured hemispherical forecasts. Grit has a thread for model performance for storm tracking. Empirically, the measured data shows that the Euro still wins the day wrt the pattern. Anecdotally, it is my belief that it is not as good as it used to be wrt individual storm threats at medium term leads. Either way, both models lose lots of skill out at D10+. And both models have shown sustained torches and freezes this winter that have just not come to pass. The pattern seems to remain in a state of volatility, although not one that has been conducive to a major east coast winter storm thus far. And I for one am going to need to see consistent evidence of it (I.e. moving into shorter leads) before I'm a believer. That is not to say that we can't get a fluke in a bad or marginal pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Looks chilly New Year's Eve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 hour ago, Jonathan said: Looks chilly New Year's Eve! Seems perhaps cool but not cold - surface air temps pretty much look normal with a couple slightly below wound in there. Nothing looks to be locking in. Here's the run: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016122118&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=172 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 16 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Seems perhaps cool but not cold - surface air temps pretty much look normal with a couple slightly below wound in there. Nothing looks to be locking in. Here's the run: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016122118&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=172 Most of the SE is in the 30s/40s on NYE. I can't speak for every southern city, but I know here, upper 30s is nearly 15 degrees below average for NYE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 9 minutes ago, toxictwister00 said: Most of the SE is in the 30s/40s on NYE. I can't speak for every southern city, but I know here, upper 30s is nearly 15 degrees below average for NYE. Couldn't agree more, but that was/is not the point I was raising - it is again quick before and after, and any cold looks to be out after NY's Day or so, based on this run. e.g., and go forward: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I was just speaking of NYE itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 22, 2016 Author Share Posted December 22, 2016 Not sure if anyone had already posted this but I just got home and looked at the 18z GFS... HOLY . It's in fantasy land but still WOW i would love to see that come true lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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