NCSNOW Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Starting to see signs that the models have played hokus pokus once again advertising inbound inferno torch for the conus and SE over the next 3 to 4 weeks. Monitoring at the moment, but it's looking like another cycle of wash rinse repeat. Do we have yet another false alarm on the model porn feeding the warmnastas into a fevered frenzy, cancelling winter, advising snowgeese to seek counseling. STAY TUNED! One thing that's nice to see is usually the tables are turned in the other direction. Most December's we are sitting here entrenched in AN temps and being led to beleive by the models cold is on the way. Problem always is that it never gets inside 5 days and Lucy keeps pulling the ball back. Don't call JB just yet, but keep his number handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Just now, franklin NCwx said: It's probably the tapatalk Hmmm, does it show up twice in their views, I wonder? I don't use it. I don't think it's compatible with my flip phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Starting to see signs that the models have played hokus pokus once again advertising inbound inferno torch for the conus and SE over the next 3 to 4 weeks. Monitoring at the moment, but it's looking like another cycle of wash rinse repeat. Do we have yet another false alarm on the model porn feeding the warmnastas into a fevered frenzy, cancelling winter, advising snowgeese to seek counseling. STAY TUNED! One thing that's nice to see is usually the tables are turned in the other direction. Most December's we are sitting here entrenched in AN temps and being led to beleive by the models cold is on the way. Problem always is that it never gets inside 5 days and Lucy keeps pulling the ball back. Don't call JB just yet, but keep his number handy. Don't forget the MJO is looking all types of good for us in the future, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 If this transpires, and jury is out atm, pendellum can swing eitheir way. Then I'm gonna send my man JB some personal help from the Wilkesboro NWS office and have one of his biggest sponsors in Surry County go up there and rip that pioneer model out of the wall. Might even get him a new bathtub personally delivered from Apex NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: If this transpires, and jury is out atm, pendellum can swing eitheir way. Then I'm gonna send my man JB some personal help from the Wilkesboro NWS office and have one of his biggest sponsors in Surry County go up there and rip that pioneer model out of the wall. Might even get him a new bathtub personally delivered from Apex NC. never heard of that brand...make sure it drains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said: never heard of that brand...make sure it drains. slosh resistant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 20 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said: never heard of that brand...make sure it drains. It's kind of like that toilet they came out with at lowes, it could flush 30 golf balls at a time! The Crapper Jim model! It was called the "Champion " ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 44 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: If this transpires, and jury is out atm, pendellum can swing eitheir way. Then I'm gonna send my man JB some personal help from the Wilkesboro NWS office and have one of his biggest sponsors in Surry County go up there and rip that pioneer model out of the wall. Might even get him a new bathtub personally delivered from Apex NC. JB and DR. Dew Point = good combo They get knock down, then they get up again etc................................... Ride the PIONEER all the way to spring!! JB thoughts tonight, But as bullish as JB is about this overall warmth, He says when this breaks the cold comes longer and stronger as we have seen in the winters of 12-13 through 14-15. Isn't it fascinating how the dagger of cold came at the heart of the North American Warmth? So here is the point for you to ponder. If we take Dec 15-Jan 14, and we know the southeast is likely to lead the way with warmth... will the cold that follows the following 30 days point its dagger at the heart of that warmth. Talk among yourselves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Gawd Almighty - I just Googled "slosh" - not posting it here (or anywhere). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Jon, you and StrongWx double-post every time you make a post. It doesn't really matter, but I didn't know if you knew it or not. Anyway, good infoYeah, I noticed thanks man. It's tapatalk. Sometimes it does sometimes it doesn't. Even if I edit posts it will post a new one, incredibly annoying. I get my new laptop Dec 27th so I can stop using my phone as the primary browser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 9 minutes ago, Jon said: I get my new laptop Dec 27th Hope it's a MacBook Pro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 28 minutes ago, Jon said: Yeah, I noticed thanks man. It's tapatalk. Sometimes it does sometimes it doesn't. Even if I edit posts it will post a new one, incredibly annoying. I get my new laptop Dec 27th so I can stop using my phone as the primary browser. Sorry man. That sucks. But congrats on the new machine, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 48 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB and DR. Dew Point = good combo They get knock down, then they get up again etc................................... Ride the PIONEER all the way to spring!! JB thoughts tonight, But as bullish as JB is about this overall warmth, He says when this breaks the cold comes longer and stronger as we have seen in the winters of 12-13 through 14-15. Isn't it fascinating how the dagger of cold came at the heart of the North American Warmth? So here is the point for you to ponder. If we take Dec 15-Jan 14, and we know the southeast is likely to lead the way with warmth... will the cold that follows the following 30 days point its dagger at the heart of that warmth. Talk among yourselves? Only one way heart of cold gets pointed at the SE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 6 hours ago, Jonathan said: Thank you. So far it looks not very good for verification as it had pretty much from the Mississippi River each above normal. Sure some of those anomalies may erode a bit but not a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: Only one way heart of cold gets pointed at the SE.... He can really spin a tale. Why does he think it will turn around? He looks at the same models we do. But I have to remind myself his rhetoric is not aimed at die hard weather nuts like us who dissect every run. Actually I'm not sure who his audience might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 20 minutes ago, packbacker said: Only one way heart of cold gets pointed at the SE.... Right through his PayPal account! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 26 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Thank you. So far it looks not very good for verification as it had pretty much from the Mississippi River each above normal. Sure some of those anomalies may erode a bit but not a whole lot. It's not a terrible prog. There are still a few more days left to see how things shake out. The NE stands out to me as the biggest bust potential at the moment. The general idea of a colder NW and warmer as you head east seems as though it will be validated. The degree of the departures from normal are still TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 This is month to date temperatures plus the next 7 days (out to Dec 27), based on today's 18z GFS forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, griteater said: This is month to date temperatures plus the next 7 days (out to Dec 27), based on today's 18z GFS forecast Dang, even with all the cold we've had this month most of the south is STILL above normal this month. It's gonna take a miracle for us to have a BN month again. This will mark 11 straight months of AN in Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Dec precipitation % of normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 8 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Dang, even with all the cold we've had this month most of the south is STILL above normal this month. It's gonna take a miracle for us to have a BN month again. This will mark 11 straight months of AN in Atlanta. That's a model based forecast off the gfs. We are below normal. I'd wait 7 days to see it verify then another 4 days till the month officially ends before accepting it as gospel truth. But no matter what side of the plum line it falls on pretty good bet well all be at 0.00 in the snowfall dept, except Jackson Mississippi who had a trace off to the east because of lake effect snow and avoided the shutout. Why can't that happen at Randleman,Badin or High Rock lake, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: That's a model based forecast off the gfs. We are below normal. I'd wait 7 days to see it verify then another 4 days till the month officially ends before accepting it as gospel truth. But no matter what side of the plum line it falls on pretty good bet well all be at 0.00 in the snowfall dept, except Jackson Mississippi who had a trace off to the east because of lake effect snow and avoided the shutout. Why can't that happen at Randleman,Badin or High Rock lake, lol. Atlanta is actually running 0.1 degrees AN through yesterday and with the torch the next week I seriously doubt ATL will end the month BN. 11 straight months of AN and counting. Precip is also running below normal, despite all the talk about us getting into a wet pattern in December. If the rest of winter and spring are dry, we are going to be in for an ugly summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Atlanta is actually running 0.1 degrees AN through yesterday and with the torch the next week I seriously doubt ATL will end the month BN. 11 straight months of AN and counting. Precip is also running below normal, despite all the talk about us getting into a wet pattern in December. If the rest of winter and spring are dry, we are going to be in for an ugly summer. Yea Hot- lanta. Should have clarified Greensboro, most of NC. You are correct looks like i20 has been the cutoff line for AN,BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 35 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It's not a terrible prog. There are still a few more days left to see how things shake out. The NE stands out to me as the biggest bust potential at the moment. The general idea of a colder NW and warmer as you head east seems as though it will be validated. The degree of the departures from normal are still TBD. Yeah I see your point but those reds and yellows dictate to below or above normal per se that the model is forecasting. Yes we still have 10 days remaining but as some have stated there sights are running some 3 to 5 degrees below normal. The NE is a huge bust. Even the cold departures it has is a huge bust. Even the SW is a bust. Listen I know I'm in the minority here trying to see the best in this upcoming pattern. I'll remain optimistic while people dive off the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 22 minutes ago, griteater said: This is month to date temperatures plus the next 7 days (out to Dec 27), based on today's 18z GFS forecast I doubt I'm going to erase a 3 to 5 degree below average over the next 10 days. We have had highs in the 20's and lows as low as 9 degrees. But hey that's just my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 19 minutes ago, griteater said: Dec precipitation % of normal Lol you can kind of see the orientation of the fronts with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Fresh out of the bathtub, from JB: A typhoon in the pacific and some SOI crap, will lead to massive ridging on the Eastcoast , days 6-10! Never heard him spew so much talk about warm east, in all my years!!? Can you have major ridging and a CAD together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 It will take steep AN temps for the rest of the month to overcome those anomalies, especially outside of the SE. Not sure if 4-5 days AN in our backyard will cut it ether l, possibly, we shall see sir. And Brick and Mack always post inside the quoted block.Edit: Quoted the wrong block. So, I'm guilty of user error too. Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 It's probably the tapatalkI use Tapatalk, and it doesn't double post...at least, not that I can tell.Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Dec avg here now at 0.42 degrees below avg and precip total at 1.97" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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