packbacker Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 10:48 PM, Wow said: 18z GFS looking good. Big -NAO block by day 10. Expand LOL...the GFS is so much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 10:49 PM, packbacker said: LOL...the GFS is so much fun. Expand Unless you are in North Florida and ... Oh, what the hell ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 10:40 PM, packbacker said: Models are kind of block happy today...the 18z GFS is always fun run though. Expand Overdone or not, this run doesn't surprise me given recent trends...just waiting for the euro ensemble to take note...any day now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 That's a nice -NAO there. It's what we want. And there's our -EPO dump into the center of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 11:00 PM, Jon said: any day now Expand I shall be released Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 11:05 PM, Cold Rain said: That's a nice -NAO there. It's what we want. And there's our -EPO dump into the center of the country. Expand Better than west coast trough! Speaking of dump, where's Shetley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Weeklies very cold for New Years eve. Think of the 18z GFS 500mb map on steroids. Huge ridge west deep trough in east centered over KY. Extreme anomalous dipole over the US. seeing it this far out is quite impressive Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 23, 2016 Author Share Posted December 23, 2016 The 18z GFS popped 3 coastals between 276 and 384. Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 23, 2016 Author Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 12:22 AM, Jon said: Weeklies very cold for New Years eve. Think of the 18z GFS 500mb map on steroids. Huge ridge west deep trough in east centered over KY. Extreme anomalous dipole over the US. seeing it this far out is quite impressive Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand Could you post them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 12:27 AM, Cary_Snow95 said: The 18z GFS popped 3 coastals between 276 and 384. Hmm Expand Cold air not in place, or we will have back-to-back winter storms...a lot could change though. I think that is called bathtub slosh...don't google it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 12:33 AM, TiltedStorm said: Cold air not in place, or we will have back-to-back winter storms...a lot could change though. I think that is called bathtub slosh...don't google it. Expand That's the least of our worries on a day 14 or 15 GFS op run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 23, 2016 Author Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 12:33 AM, TiltedStorm said: Cold air not in place, or we will have back-to-back winter storms...a lot could change though. I think that is called bathtub slosh...don't google it. Expand Yeah you shouldn't be looking for actual snow threats just a general consensus of energy moving around inside a favorable pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 12:36 AM, mackerel_sky said: That's the least of our worries on a day 14 or 15 GFS op run! Expand Should I break down and subscribe to eurowx? I was waiting until we had a legit threat. Been reading and seems like the euro is golden tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 23, 2016 Author Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 12:53 AM, TiltedStorm said: Should I break down and subscribe to eurowx? I was waiting until we had a legit threat. Been reading and seems like the euro is golden tonight. Expand I assume the subscription is monthly? If so now is as good as any. or you could wait out these next few warm days so you have it for all of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Euro and GFS setting us up for glory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 12z GFS para hour 384 , has snow on the northern precip shield in N Florida! Right where we want it now!! My new favorite model!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 1:03 AM, Brick Tamland said: Euro and GFS setting us up for glory. Expand It's Hammertime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 12:27 AM, Cary_Snow95 said: Could you post them?Weeklies is something I just don't post, but you can probably find them on twitter. Note I'm talking about the "dailies" if you will from the monthly run, so a single time just like normal models are run. The weeklies include Dec 26-Jan 2 so with the ridge after Christmas the 500mb is underwhelming. I'll PM you the New Year's Eve frame I'm talking about. If anyone else wants it, PM/DM me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Might we catch a unicorn in this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 This is kind of what I think we get in Jan...going to be a battle with that ridge but in the game at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 11:00 PM, Jon said: Overdone or not, this run doesn't surprise me given recent trends...just waiting for the euro ensemble to take note...any day now. Expand Interesting seeing all 3 globals showing stout -NAO day 10. I guess 4 globals if you count para GFS. Probably be gone at 0z but they must see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 1:36 AM, packbacker said: This is kind of what I think we get in Jan...going to be a battle with that ridge but in the game at least. Expand This one is basically identical to what we say with last weeks arctic front. Virtually the whole country below normal with the Southeast up the immediate seaboard above. It is going to be a hard winter to endure if this ends up being the general pattern all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 2:21 AM, packbacker said: Interesting seeing all 3 globals showing stout -NAO day 10. I guess 4 globals if you count para GFS. Probably be gone at 0z but they must see something. Expand On 12/23/2016 at 2:43 AM, Iceagewhereartthou said: This one is basically identical to what we say with last weeks arctic front. Virtually the whole country below normal with the Southeast up the immediate seaboard above. It is going to be a hard winter to endure if this ends up being the general pattern all winter. Expand These look nothing like last outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 2:43 AM, Iceagewhereartthou said: This one is basically identical to what we say with last weeks arctic front. Virtually the whole country below normal with the Southeast up the immediate seaboard above. It is going to be a hard winter to endure if this ends up being the general pattern all winter. Expand Joe D from WB had a post today and in it he listed the wQBO and w-LN winters....for Jan that composite shows an atlantic ridge, when rolled into Feb the cold does shift east. I do think we battle it, that's life in the SE. Oh-V up to interior NE they will love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 2:57 AM, packbacker said: Joe D from WB had a post today and in it he listed the wQBO and w-LN winters....for Jan that composite shows an atlantic ridge, when rolled into Feb the cold does shift east. I do think we battle it, that's life in the SE. Oh-V up to interior NE they will love it. Expand Hypothetically, let's say the D10 pattern being shown materializes. We have to at least have a better chance to score than what we've had so far, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 2:43 AM, Iceagewhereartthou said: This one is basically identical to what we say with last weeks arctic front. Virtually the whole country below normal with the Southeast up the immediate seaboard above. It is going to be a hard winter to endure if this ends up being the general pattern all winter. It's what you have to fight with La Ninas, unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 3:00 AM, Jonathan said: Hypothetically, let's say the D10 pattern being shown materializes. We have to at least have a better chance to score than what we've had so far, right? Expand It's not exactly having 'all the players on the field' but 'the field' would indeed be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 2:57 AM, packbacker said: Joe D from WB had a post today and in it he listed the wQBO and w-LN winters....for Jan that composite shows an atlantic ridge, when rolled into Feb the cold does shift east. I do think we battle it, that's life in the SE. Oh-V up to interior NE they will love it. That's what I saw in doing my outlook too. I had Jan above normal and Feb near normal. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 3:07 AM, CaryWx said: It's not exactly having 'all the players on the field' but 'the field' would indeed be there. Expand It's like the Panthers players being on the field this season! you hope and pray for a win, most of the time , it's not in the cards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 3:04 AM, griteater said: It's what you have to fight with La Ninas, unfortunately Expand I thought we were La neutral about right now, and the Nina was weak to begin with? Shouldn't that help our pattern not be totally Nina-ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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