packbacker Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 2:11 PM, Jon said: Yep, and even if we don't get a -AO it's important to remember a -EPO can overwhelm a +AO and can send cold and stormy our way...it wouldn't take much to overwhelm the flow if Day 10 works out on the models as advertised. Long range implications are very, very unknown right now and for those looking after truncation throughout the entire run to 384 - don't, you're wasting your time. Follow trends in the EPO. I've told people who have messaged me about watching the EPO specifically this winter when they've asked what index they should pay attention to...not worth eyeing the -NAO constantly when you have the type of game changer such as the EPO diving negative. Expand Question is how long will that SER or really its an Atlantic ridge give us fits. Something is going to give...either the -EPO won't be as strong or the trough will shift towards central conus. The EPS is actually trying to connect the Atlantic ride to the AK ridge at the of its run.....where's the Homer Simpson gif salivating over a donut when you need it. Like the CFS flip too, sans the SER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 12:38 PM, jshetley said: The 6z GFS says not many from SC to Miss will even go below freezing right through hour 384. Much of that area not even below 35 at all. Any winter weather will be from Tenn and the mountains of NC on to the north if this run is right. Expand Why so cross on the merriest of seasons? Come dine with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 2:48 PM, BristowWx said: Why so cross on the merriest of seasons? Come dine with us Expand He always goes with the worst case scenario. Always. That's his internet schtick. Don't ask him to break character. Re: the EPO, I like it, but the thing to keep an eye on before getting too excited about it is that the tendency is for the core of the cold to get dumped into the Midwest, before slowly bleeding east. That can be fine and can lead to Miller B/mixy events for us, if other things cooperate also. We need to make sure the SE/Atlantic ridge isn't too strong, as it will deflect the influence of the -EPO. If we can truly get a -EPO, along with some blocking and a very weak to nonexistent SER, then we will likely have a very favorable pattern for wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 2:11 PM, Jon said: Yep, and even if we don't get a -AO it's important to remember a -EPO can overwhelm a +AO and can send cold and stormy our way...it wouldn't take much to overwhelm the flow if Day 10 works out on the models as advertised. Long range implications are very, very unknown right now and for those looking after truncation throughout the entire run to 384 - don't, you're wasting your time. Follow trends in the EPO. I've told people who have messaged me about watching the EPO specifically this winter when they've asked what index they should pay attention to...not worth eyeing the -NAO constantly when you have the type of game changer such as the EPO diving negative. Expand The PNA, AO, and NAO looks to be heading near neutral in the LR. The EPO is going negative(or at least it looks to be going negative). Maybe that's all it needs. I mentioned a period we had a few years back where all we had on our side was the EPO and it was able to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 JMA is terrible, in case anyone was wondering. Repeat of the last run. SER throughout, terrible pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 CFSv2 on the other hand looks amazing...great trend heading into the new year, last few runs crucial as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 4:42 PM, Jon said: CFSv2 on the other hand looks amazing...great trend heading into the new year, last few runs crucial as always. Expand Oh baby. That's quite the (beautiful) turnaround by the CFS. I'm trying to keep expectations tempered, but I'm digging the power of positivity in here today! Definitely rooting for the -EPO to dominate the pattern and a little help to shift those colder anomalies from the Midwest to the east. Sure we'd love help from the Atlantic, but at this stage in time, can we really depend on it? Either way, the OVERALL TREND is...not bad...so we just gotta keep this mojo going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 4:42 PM, Jon said: CFSv2 on the other hand looks amazing...great trend heading into the new year, last few runs crucial as always. Expand Models are doing what they did in November with big swings. I really like the Euro. I know a lot of people are Doubting it but I think it sniffs this out. The GFS has been on hyperpole for quite some time in the mid to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 2 cold chasing moisture storms on LR GFS 12z! One about the 30th and another on the 6th! Not much excitement, but looks cold at the end and trough looks to be from the plains on east! Call that a win at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 2:48 PM, packbacker said: Question is how long will that SER or really its an Atlantic ridge give us fits. Something is going to give...either the -EPO won't be as strong or the trough will shift towards central conus. The EPS is actually trying to connect the Atlantic ride to the AK ridge at the of its run.....where's the Homer Simpson gif salivating over a donut when you need it. Like the CFS flip too, sans the SER. Expand Pack, if we get that EPO ridge to connect over the top (which would be a -AO as well) would it shunt that central CONUS ridge on over to the eastern US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I still don't see any sustained blocking on the ensembles. The Alaska ridge will help with keeping cold air in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Euro says I'm sticking to my guns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 6:44 PM, franklin NCwx said: I still don't see any sustained blocking on the ensembles. The Alaska ridge will help with keeping cold air in the pattern. Expand Hopefully we can get a well timed Baffin block as a system approaches to slow things down. It has helped us out during fast flow patterns before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 6:50 PM, Met1985 said: Euro says I'm sticking to my guns! Expand Hell yeah..+PNA/-NAO/-EPO by hr204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 6:56 PM, Jonathan said: Hell yeah..+PNA/-NAO/-EPO by hr204. Expand Yep a thing a beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Wow day 10 Euro looks like fireworks about to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 6:56 PM, Jonathan said: Hell yeah..+PNA/-NAO/-EPO by hr204. Expand All it takes is 1 storm!!! maybe this is the "one"! I'll take a Miller A, and call it a winter!! It's been awhile!! Edit: some ensemble support would be nice, we will see in a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthGaWinter Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Canadian is very similar to day 10 euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 7:05 PM, Jonesing for a chase said: Wow day 10 Euro looks like fireworks about to happen Expand Yeah, tons of gulf moisture with this look at 500mb... I dare someone to complain about this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 7:12 PM, Jon said: Yeah, tons of gulf moisture with this look at 500mb... I dare someone to complain about this run. Expand Wait for it................ (nobody gets below 35 from MS to SC) sincerely , James Shetley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 GL low and lack of deep cold positioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 7:12 PM, Jon said: Yeah, tons of gulf moisture with this look at 500mb... I dare someone to complain about this run. Expand Oh they will because it's not at day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 7:12 PM, Jon said: Yeah, tons of gulf moisture with this look at 500mb... I dare someone to complain about this run. Expand Is that a look where we need the low near the GLs to run out ahead and lay down the cold, while low forms in the gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 7:12 PM, Jon said: I dare someone to complain about this run. Expand Even me? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathang16 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I don't like it. It needs more colors. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 7:12 PM, Jon said: Yeah, tons of gulf moisture with this look at 500mb... I dare someone to complain about this run. Expand Easy. Nice North Atlantic thumb ridge. Too far east. Will let storms move too far to the NW with high pressure too far north into Canada. But that's just being picky at 10 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Well yea its worth complaining its at day 10 if you keep saying day 10 you are going to hit Spring pretty soon. We are not losing anymore daylight at this point in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Euro still looks good. Look for an early Jan threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I like what the Euro is cooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 On 12/22/2016 at 7:43 PM, Wow said: Euro still looks good. Look for an early Jan threat. Expand If correct, or even similar..... I couldn't agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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