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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2016-2017

Cary_Snow95

By Cary_Snow95,
in Southeastern States

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2016 at 6:21 AM, BristowWx said:

Next year guys.  We are done.  Goose is cooked.  This won't turn around anytime soon.  We can write off this winter knowing we have had good run.  2017-18 is gonna be great.

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We are 3 days away from the official start of winter and you are already giving up ???

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2016 at 6:21 AM, BristowWx said:

Next year guys.  We are done.  Goose is cooked.  This won't turn around anytime soon.  We can write off this winter {year} knowing we have had good run.  2017 is gonna be great.

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Well, the good thing about it is that next year is only a couple of weeks away, Fixed it for you...lol. Seriously, you can't possibly know the outcome of the rest of winter. I will quote your post when we are looking at a HECS in mid-Jan.

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2016 at 10:28 AM, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Well, the good thing about it is that next year is only a couple of weeks away, Fixed it for you...lol. Seriously, you can't possibly know the outcome of the rest of winter. I will quote your post when we are looking at a HECS in mid-Jan.

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Won't be in Jan. Jan is 100% done. If we get winter weather it will have to wait until Feb 15 at least.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2016 at 12:29 PM, mackerel_sky said:

Good stuff! Scientifically based! Comedy gold!

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Lol just what I was thinking. Last year this time was absolutely horrible!  This year is not even close to last year. If I was looking at it right it looks like the 06Z GFS had moved towards the euro for the mid range trough. Sure we are not tracking winter storms yet but maybe sone need to take a break.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2016 at 12:36 PM, packbacker said:

Come March when we look back at this winter are we going to say "we should have known the pattern would flip mid Jan".   Or are we going to say "we should have known this winter would suck".  

Because this could be the worst pattern to start off Jan in a long time.  

IMG_3461.PNG

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Meh it looks zonal. Iv seen worst. This will change but personally I don't see full blown torch. 

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2016 at 3:39 PM, packbacker said:
Agree...we won't trust until mid-Jan but then when it starts showing a flip we can start trusting it.


Yeah, Day 10-15 has an amazing verification score, it should be taken as gospel no matter what it shows. See what I did there?

Anyway, I see no indications of a stellar pattern, but the EPS is stuggling Day 7, period.
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Jonathan

Jonathan

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2016 at 4:16 PM, Jonathan said:

Surprised I hadn't seen ten maps of the 6z GFS "event" the day after Christmas yet. I bet the 12z is a cutter from hell. :lol: 

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Right on cue! LP jumps from the GOM on 6z to Ohio on the 12z :lmao: 

In ALL honesty, why does the GFS run 4x daily when there's only fresh balloon data 2x daily?

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

I think we can safely say the EPS and GEFS have both sucked in the LR.  That seems pretty normal to me.  They've both shown sustained cold and warm patterns so far, and we've really ended up being at or slightly below normal so far.

The only things I feel comfortable concluding are that there is somewhat of a tendency for a SER and for the opposite of blocking to occur.  So far, this has not led to an outright sustained torch pattern, so that's good.  But lol at any winter pattern setting in for the foreseeable future regardless of what one or two runs of an ensemble suite shows.  The atmosphere is in a prove it to me mode...but that's just me.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2016 at 4:12 PM, franklin NCwx said:

Until we get some blocking storms will cut and we will get brief cool downs behind the storms. 

Hopefully  we can get a change in the Pacific too. 

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The mountains were supposed to clean up this winter with lots of NWF events, so far that hasn't worked out. We would have scored a pretty severe ice storm Friday night, if we had more abundant moisture, in the CAD regions.So as has been said ad nausium, we don't need blocking the to get wintry precip

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Fronts coming through. Nice  rain shower heading into the 50s now. Top out at 64.

Ice on the way tommorrow. Got a sleet sounding for this. Rah at 40%. Well see where the front sets up shop tonight along the coast. Be nice to get the second advisory of the season and still be a week out from Christmas. Someone between i85 and i95 in NC could get a nice little suprise tommorrow. 

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2016 at 4:15 PM, burrel2 said:

I believe Cohen has created an excellent way to predict the AO. You simply predict the opposite of what his research found and you'll be right almost every year!

I'm rooting for lowest SAI advancement on record for the month of October next year... who's with me?

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I hate to make fun of honest scientific effort even when it turns out wrong, but one might have to concur that the SAI theory has taken a beating the last few years.  I welcome any and all serious research into the AO, NAO, PNA etc.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2016 at 6:28 PM, mackerel_sky said:

Maybe the cold snap Thursday- Sat and the devastating ice event Friday night and Saturday morning, was our front-load and the rest of the winter is toast?? I'm starting to sound like Pack and Shetley!? Maybe it won't snow until March, ala 2009! I'd wait for that, in a heartbeat! 8" of paste!

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Don't lump me in with you...I sound nothing like that.  I am on board for a snowy back end.  1-2" for RDU, seems improbable now but it won't come end of Jan into Feb.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2016 at 7:03 PM, cbmclean said:

I hate to make fun of honest scientific effort even when it turns out wrong, but one might have to concur that the SAI theory has taken a beating the last few years.  I welcome any and all serious research into the AO, NAO, PNA etc.

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Snow cover ranks right up there with the wooly worm or whatever that animal is that sees its shadow.  

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2016 at 12:36 PM, packbacker said:

Come March when we look back at this winter are we going to say "we should have known the pattern would flip mid Jan".   Or are we going to say "we should have known this winter would suck".  

Because this could be the worst pattern to start off Jan in a long time.  

IMG_3461.PNG

Expand  

 

  On 12/18/2016 at 3:14 PM, Met1985 said:

Meh it looks zonal. Iv seen worst. This will change but personally I don't see full blown torch. 

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I don't know Met, that pattern has a lot of terrible in it

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