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12/17/16 Snow->sleet/fzra->rain obs


Ralph Wiggum

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As I mentioned like on Tuesday these events almost always underperform. Changed over after most likely under an inch of snow...Wasn't worth a measurement  to me before I had to leave.  Now moderate technically freezing rain. Though temp is 29 so it really is running off and ponding quicker than it is freezing. 

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  On 12/17/2016 at 12:43 PM, The Iceman said:
As I mentioned like on Tuesday these events almost always underperform. Changed over after most likely under an inch of snow...Wasn't worth a measurement  to me before I had to leave.  Now moderate technically freezing rain. Though temp is 29 so it really is running off and ponding quicker than it is freezing. 


In your area, yes. N and W of PHL icing situation most of the morning. I dont think anyone expected this to be a huge snowmaker and everyone pretty much expected a changeover. The icing wasnt really well-modeled until the short range guidance came into play tho.
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  On 12/17/2016 at 12:43 PM, The Iceman said:

As I mentioned like on Tuesday these events almost always underperform. Changed over after most likely under an inch of snow...Wasn't worth a measurement  to me before I had to leave.  Now moderate technically freezing rain. Though temp is 29 so it really is running off and ponding quicker than it is freezing. 

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You going to be like this all winter? Had about 1" when I got up to sleet at 7. Still sleet in with occasional flakes. Looks nice out. 24F.

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  On 12/17/2016 at 12:48 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:


In your area, yes. N and W of PHL icing situation most of the morning. I dont think anyone expected this to be a huge snowmaker and everyone pretty much expected a changeover. The icing wasnt really well-modeled until the short range guidance came into play tho.

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How about up here in the high county NWS me and everybody's grandmother expected 2-3" minimum and ground truth <1" imby. This one was ugly hope for a better January all I can say.

Central PA radar trend says rain or freezing rain that is isn't really freezing will be over around noon.

 

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We were 100% sleet by 6:30am after about an inch of pure snow. Still mostly to all sleet (haven't been outside in awhile). I just hope it warms up enough to melt the snow off my trailer or I'll be blowing chunks going down the freeway tomorrow. Not safe I know, but neither is climbing up on a 13 foot high trailer, unrestrained, with a shovel...

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Did the whole obs thread get deleted?  Anyway, snow started around 3 am here, had 1/2" by 4:30 am, then 1.5" by 6:30 am and 2.0" by 7:30 am, when sleet started mixing in.  Had a mix for awhile with a few bursts of heavy snow, then as of 8:30, we're now all freezing rain, at 27F, still.  

2.25" total snow/sleet, as I think we're done with snow/sleet. The 32F line appears to be from about Mount Holly across to about Sandy Hook, so it's got a ways to go to get up here.  Could get really ugly here if we get a couple of hours of ZR with temps well below 32F.  

http://www.njweather.org/maps/nj-statewide-air-temperatures

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  On 12/17/2016 at 2:14 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Should transition over to plain rain here by 10AM latest. Couldn't happen soon enough as trees and wires have just enough ice accretion they are just beginning to sag.
 

 

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Going to be a close call. I jumped a couple degrees an hour or two ago but now steady at 30.5F.

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  On 12/17/2016 at 12:48 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:


In your area, yes. N and W of PHL icing situation most of the morning. I dont think anyone expected this to be a huge snowmaker and everyone pretty much expected a changeover. The icing wasnt really well-modeled until the short range guidance came into play tho.

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I drove up to Doylestown early this morning. Big underperformer up there as well. People were saying  2-4 up there, and it was not even close. Changed over way sooner than expected like these events usually do. I never said anyone was expecting it not to change over just that these events almost always change over much sooner than expected...just like what happened. Plus no one played up the ice because it isn't significant. Slight branch bending, no damage at all. Far NW maybe a slightly different story. For a vast majority of the area though this was an underperformer like these change over events usually do.

  On 12/17/2016 at 12:55 PM, wkd said:

You going to be like this all winter? Had about 1" when I got up to sleet at 7. Still sleet in with occasional flakes. Looks nice out. 24F.

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Be like what? Calling it what it is?  

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