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Thumper the Dumper obs/pics 12/16 to 12/18/16


Ginx snewx

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I didn't think this statement in their AFD made sense....


Non-diurnal temperature trend for the most part except
with a forecast burst of return colder air briefly around the late
afternoon early evening for areas along and N of the Hartford to
Boston corridor (see previous discussion below). Monitoring for
the flash freeze / freezing rain - drizzle potential over such
areas.

 

SN+ continues, but looking at radar, the heavy stuff doesn't have much more than an hour to go.

17.6*

Makes sense to me.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you think interior areas say Northwest of 95 and west of 495 hold onto pack?

i think for some it's a small net gain .. that's my hunch.  but, it's hard - I admit. 

I mean, stepping back that pattern didn't support even this much.  people want to argue it, but, I've seen too many dramatic short duration (like inside 12 hours-worth) turn arounds in my time and this actually 'looked' like a candidate for that too happen.

case in point, ...jan 1994... so on and so on.

but as it were, the gods were friendly and the detail is that if we look at present radar tajectories, the flow is actually more east in the steering levels; which sort of backs us into an eye-brow raise/suspicion over this things ability to really move the warm air that far north, as soon as the large scaled suggestion.  so, we end up with a solid 6 hour isentropic lift scenario instead. 

in 1994, ...and those events like that... the flow was very deep layered SSW at big speeds... that's a bit different than this time as things are verifying this morning.  no turn to the east with the flow at our latitude back in those big time turn around events.

having said that, using those as possible tools for how the snow pack may fair: there was snow left after the 1994 9 hour turbo thaw.  it was thinned a lot, but there was some left. of course banks and piles remained, slam dunk, but even in lawns and commons and such. 

based on experience alone and then factoring in a little nod based on uncertainty for real warm penetration into say NW ORH county... i think we leave an inch or two in those regions.  But down over eastern RI and over to say Norwood/Blue Hill, Boston and points SE?  they'll break even or lose.

that's what i'd say if forced..

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Once the Rgem got into range and agreed with it..it was a slam dunk to go colder

Yeah good job by the NAM on the meso low. It's funny though, when it first showed it, it wasn't something to normally dismiss. Scooter and I had a discussion on how it made sense from a met standpoint. 

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Makes sense to me.

 

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don't know what is supposed to not make sense in that AFD excerpt. 

They say a "non-diurnal temperature trend" (so downward) except for the area where it gets colder.  That seems to be a contradiction.

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well I wasn't asking you

Someone's touchy.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah good job by the NAM on the meso low. It's funny though, when it first showed it, it wasn't something to normally dismiss. Scooter and I had a discussion on how it made sense from a met standpoint. 

Yeah I remember Scoots was the first to post about and even said it made sense to him meteorologically ..and then you quickly agreed . That was an eye opener.

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

They say a "non-diurnal temperature trend" (so downward) except for the area where it gets colder.  That seems to be a contradiction.

Someone's touchy.

Lol..not at all.. Your area is never going to sniff 40..that's been known for awhile. And you already had 6 inches of glacier. Those of us with 6-9" of powder and 50+ with wind and rain are worried.

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