fountainguy97 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 4 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Never go full retard. Retweet nam backing off slightly. Gonna be another tiny event if anything. Better than 80s....oh... wait I've got a high of 79 tmrw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 RAH discussion from last night (basically we need to keep an eye on this): .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/... As of 315 AM Sunday... Occasional rain and turning sharply colder... some sleet and freezing rain may mix in with rain late tonight and Monday over the Piedmont/northern Coastal Plain. A wave of low pressure is expected to slow the front to a crawl this evening and overnight as it reaches just offshore of the southeast NC and SC coast. This will prolong the rain along and north of the front, as the warm and moist mid level SW flow overruns the much colder and increasingly drier low level NNE flow - courtesy of the strong Polar high to our north. The proximity of very cold arctic air (albeit rather shallow) does raise the probability (slight at the current time) of a winter weather threat later tonight and Monday, especially from the Triangle areas northward. Depending on the model of choice, there appears to be increasing evidence of at least the threat of some sleet and possibly freezing rain to mix with the rain from Raleigh northward later tonight and Monday. However... a disconnect with several of the key ingredients / parameters for significant winter weather exists. The GFS drives the cold and dry air in more quickly later tonight and Monday, ending the precipitation before it becomes a potential issue. The EC has trended wetter and colder between 09Z-18Z/Monday, driving the cold air southward in time to indicate a potential threat of either sleet or light freezing rain to become mixed with the rain, especially on the very NW-N edge of the significant precip area. Again, this back edge of the main precip area is problematic at best to try to forecast given the range in model solutions. The operational EC may be the most robust of all of the models with additional QPF 12Z to 18Z from the Triangle to Roanoke Rapids (that critical NW edge of precip shield). The coldest models also suggest a cold nose of 20 degrees surging into our northern tier of zones at 2000 to 2500 feet AGL Monday - supporting the mix with sleet and freezing rain (IF) we continue to get precipitation. Much, yet to be determined. About half the SREF solutions shove the significant precip just far enough south and east of Raleigh such that very little additional QPF falls after 15z or so. For now, expect rain over much of central and eastern NC overnight, with widespread coverage in all but the far NW zones where models indicate the rain ending late. Occasional rain and cold Monday... a chance of the rain mixing with sleet or freezing rain in the Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. No accumulations expected. Lows tonight generally 33-38 N to SE. Temperatures Monday may hold nearly steady or even fall through the 30s. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 6z GFS now shows the potential for some ice from the Triangle northwards (as RAH describes above). Would be light and for a 6 hour duration or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Originally the timing on this was Monday night/Tues morning. Would timing now be earlier than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 19 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Originally the timing on this was Monday night/Tues morning. Would timing now be earlier than that? Well Euro was showing the wave amplifying more and continuing into Tuesday. Score one for the GFS. Models are hinting at a flip to some freezing drizzle at back end of front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Well Euro was showing the wave amplifying more and continuing into Tuesday. Score yet another one for the GFS. Models are hinting at a flip to some freezing drizzle at back end of front. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Quiet, so I take it nothing too exciting. I notice the GFS has jumped on a little sleet/fzra at the end of precip while the NAM has nothing... They switched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Wait n see mode. Be watching radar latter tonight along with short range models to see if we can get a wave or 2 to run the front and throw some qpf back over us. Soundings are showing sleet at 925mb in the minus range, surface in great shape with HP perfect prog in NE. Just need the moisture. Maybe we can score a bonus event. Honestly all frozen before Jan 1 is bonus for central NC imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 I thought timing would be tomorrow evening/tuesday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 16 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Quiet, so I take it nothing too exciting. I notice the GFS has jumped on a little sleet/fzra at the end of precip while the NAM has nothing... They switched. I wouldn't say that's a bad thing. GFS has been money lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 The latest WPC probabilities show a large swath of Wake County with a 10-20% chance of at least .10" of freezing rain. The same area has at least a 50-60% chance of at least .01" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Both the GFS and the new 3km NAM have ice for Monday...but the RGEM and 12km NAM have it Tuesday morning...depends on when the waves ride the front, I guess. IMAGES BELOW: GFS/NAM 3KM MONDAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 Sure do wish this precip we had this afternoon could stick around until tomorrow. The flip flopping with the models is irritating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 18 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Sure do wish this precip we had this afternoon could stick around until tomorrow. The flip flopping with the models is irritating. It's going to be a long winter, then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 RAH NWS isn't buying anything. What's the latest model trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: RAH NWS isn't buying anything. What's the latest model trends? Warmer for surface temps... but modles have a stout 925mb freezing layer. Won't be surprised for some areas to sit at 33 and sleet if that cold layer materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Think roads will be an issue? Could happen during rush hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 11 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Think roads will be an issue? Could happen during rush hour? First wave will begin early tmrw morning and last through the day into the early afternoon. If an area is seeing 32 and sleet/zr mix then it's possible for roads to get icy but only while the precip is heavy. Should melt quickly once precip backs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 It's interesting because the WPC probabilities have actually increased for freezing rain for central NC since earlier today. http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=24&ptype=icez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Wakefield NWS is still keeping options on the table, they said in their latest update that they are waiting for 00z data for precip type forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 21Z SREF still holding on to some sleet/fzra toward the end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 3 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: Sure do wish this precip we had this afternoon could stick around until tomorrow. The flip flopping with the models is irritating. You mean this rain? Monday Rain. High near 41. Northeast wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 19, 2016 Author Share Posted December 19, 2016 So is it going to be lack of precip or not cold enough? Seems like it's all over the place with this, with the GFS saying the precip should end before it becomes a problem for anything frozen, but then there's a 90% chance of rain tomorrow in the forecast from RAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 from the latest RAH discussion: Quote Bottom line... We do not anticipate issues such as what occurred Friday night. Temperatures were much colder then and it had been below freezing for hours before the light precipitation event. This time around we are starting warm and wet at the ground with temperatures in the 40s. This will preclude any road problems with this expected event. An advisory is not anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Elizabeth Gardner also mentions the chance of fzra/sleet mixing in toward the end tonighthttp://www.wral.com/gardner-freezing-rain-likely-on-a-chilly-monday/16353194/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Rain, cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 From RAH: Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 404 AM EST MON DEC 19 2016 NCZ007>011-023>027-040-041-076-200915- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM- FRANKLIN-NASH-CHATHAM-WAKE-LEE- 404 AM EST MON DEC 19 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE LOCATION WILL MAINLY BE FROM RALEIGH NORTH AND EAST TO WARRENTON AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. THE TIMING IS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ANY LIGHT GLAZE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES, ABOVE THE WARM GROUND. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, ELIMINATING HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ BADGETT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Temps will be in the 20s tonight. I guess they are banking on everything drying up before it gets that cold. no black ice potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 backyard temp sitting at 33.1 degrees. One things for sure it's going to be a raw day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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