jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 517 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify along and ahead of a cold front moving across the watch area this afternoon and evening. The strongest storms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 90 miles northeast of Bowling Green KY to 50 miles southeast of Little Rock AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/ADJACENT UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to develop late this afternoon into tonight across the ArkLaMiss/Mid South region east northeastward into the central Appalachians. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but a couple of tornadoes and isolated large hail will also be possible this evening. ...20Z outlook update... The primary surface frontal low already appears to be centered over the mid Ohio Valley, with little substantive deepening expected until late tonight across the upper Ohio Valley through the lee of the lower Great Lakes region, as stronger mid-level height falls (associated with a pair of phasing short wave perturbations) consolidate over the Great Lakes region. However, in response to the approach of southern stream impulse (now accelerating east northeast of the southern Rockies), the latest Rapid Refresh continues to indicate considerable further strengthening of southwesterly 850 mb flow (60-70+ kt) in a belt northeast of the Mississippi Delta region into middle Tennessee by around 18/00Z. Further intensification of this jet appears possible through the evening while it noses east northeastward through the western slopes of the central Appalachians and adjacent upper Ohio Valley. This appears likely to coincide with a corridor of boundary layer moistening and associated destabilization. Mixed layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000+ J/kg now appears present on the northeastern edge of the plume of richer boundary layer moisture return, across northeastern Arkansas into western Tennessee and Kentucky. This instability is expected to support an upscale growing line or cluster of thunderstorms on the southeastern fringe of the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent, which appears likely to develop east northeastward across Kentucky and Tennessee this evening. Although, downstream boundary layer destabilization may not be as strong as that now present near the Mississippi Valley, it probably will be sufficient to support a continuing damaging wind threat with the evolving convective system. Categorical and probabilistic lines have been adjusted to account for these expectations. Although potential for wind damage with an evolving storm cluster appears the primary severe threat, isolated supercells may not be out of the question near or just ahead of the evolving system. Given the environment, now apparently including large clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a couple of tornadoes still appear possible, including the risk for a strong tornado or two, particularly within the enhanced slight risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 You don't often see a tornado watch covering a winter weather advisory, but this system means plenty of business on the front side for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Unreal. There you go, John. What a front. This is for Nashville...t-storms to wintry mix...42 degree drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Cap should break off in Mid Tn in a couple hours,radar should get active here shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Confirmed tornado SE of Henderson..Edit:SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 MO boothill BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 445 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 530 PM CST * AT 444 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER KENNETT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Great thread title. Hopefully, the severe will be limited but west/middle see some wintry weather. Crazy next 12-18 hours about to commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 7 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: MO boothill BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 445 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 530 PM CST * AT 444 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER KENNETT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 453 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016 MOC155-172330- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-161217T2330Z/ PEMISCOT MO- 453 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CST FOR NORTHERN PEMISCOT COUNTY... AT 453 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DEERING, OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF KENNETT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 18Z looks pretty in terms of frozen precip falling for end of storm, accumulation not so much, but just falling will be nice especially some flakes if they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 front is undercutting main line.... main tornado threat may be with new convection over SE AR if they can mature as they moves northeast. similar to the discrete storm earlier over western TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Yeah nothing firing up. HRRR is killing off the instabilities it showed a couple hours ago.Dont see the good downdraft,capes.Better downdraft now looks into Central Miss around there later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Really surprised nothing is popping up yet in front of that line temps are just hit 70 here the last hour,i know there is a slight cap..but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will continue through tonight across the ArkLaMiss/Mid South region east northeastward into the central Appalachians. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but a couple of tornadoes and isolated large hail will also be possible. At 00Z, the strong cold front extended from central TX northeast into western KY, with a weak surface low analyzed near the MO Bootheel. Strong/severe thunderstorms were in progress just ahead of the front over eastern/southern AR northeast into western portions of TN/KY. As an upper-level impulse over the southern Plains lifts northeast this evening while phasing with a northern-branch impulse, an increase in large-scale ascent should occur from the TN/OH Valley region into the Great Lakes. Reference MCD 1892 for short-term thinking/convective trends across Tornado Watch 517 and adjacent areas. Farther southwest, thunderstorms should continue to develop near the cold front, with some potential for more discrete pre-frontal storms later this evening across LA. Refer to MCD 1893 for anticipated convective trends in this area. Changes with this outlook include trimming the northern portion of the ENH risk and adjusting risk areas and associated probabilities based on cold frontal location and radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 That line should get really intense when it gets into Mid Tn,should have a great light show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Temps are up to 72 here.We havent heard thunder in months,might get me fill..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwestern Alabama Southeastern Arkansas Northeastern Louisiana West-central through northern Mississippi Southwestern and middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 855 PM until 300 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of strong to locally severe storms near an intense cold front will move across the watch area through much of the overnight hours, offering a risk of sporadic damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes possible. Isolated severe storms still may form ahead of that band also. See SPC mesoscale discussions 1893-1894 for initial meteorological reasoning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles either side of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Monroe LA to 15 miles east of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 ZR mostly in Mid tn,higher in the NW Valley,could see some snow in the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranger Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Latest temp observations in Nashville are 72 while just up the road in Clarkesville temp is 41. This arctic front means business! Love to see these dramatic changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 I am within 15 miles of a confirmed TOR on the ground and my temp is in the 30s- crazy! Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranger Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Clarkesville now down to 37; Nashville still holding at 72. Wow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 18, 2016 Author Share Posted December 18, 2016 The winds are screaming here. I was down in town shopping and could barely push my buggy across the lot. Sustained at 30 with gusts towards 45. It's went from 56 to 63 in the last two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 ORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1056 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... NORTHERN TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 1130 PM CST * AT 1056 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HINKLE, OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CORINTH, MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. SPOTTER REPORTED TREE DAMAGE WITH A TORNADO NEAR COSSUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranger Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Nashville down to 54 now. Almost a 20 degree drop within the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 These ambiguous cells along the leading edge of the Arctic airmass are continuing on. They may trigger possible Tornado Warnings in Northwest Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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