CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Also could be something that keeps totals pretty uniform across the southern areas as opposed to the typical gradient. It's almost like the initial stages of a weak coastal front. It's convergence there. It happened the other night in RI and adjacent SE MA. And then pretty good wedgy inland in the aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016121512&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=289 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016121512&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=289 shave the usual off the top and we still good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016121512&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=289 I'd put this in the more likely category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 the FRH grid shows for BOS how lacking a blocking high pressure N really f*'s up a solid cold air mass... what a fantastic turn-around that is... good lord! -17 C at T1 all the way to + 5 C in 30 hours, with less than .1" liq equiv during that transition. Meanwhile, the middle boundary layer wind is all the way around to 150 degs at some 24 kts sustained... just fire-hoses the coastal plain.. whatever snow falls in the meme-"thump" expectation would be very fleeting there, if the implication of what those numbers above are doing verifies. as for the interior, ...different story between hours 48 and 54; i see ALB's numbers being more typically playing out right up to I-495 or even I-95 over inland areas in this circumstance. the whole geographic region succumbs to southerly gradient so we sort of suffer the same fate there. as such... even though the wind will unilaterally turn around the dial (initially) and be south-ish, it seems there is enough isentropic differential between the air mass over the lower OV and what is in the interior up this way ...to force sufficient/proficient ascent. in fact, the nam is the most robust of all models i've seen re the secondary/inverted trough closure beyond 54 hours. but, it appears to be doing so without more obvious known mechanics for Miller B in general.. i was wondering if it may have some convective feed-back going on with the initial pulse of elevated lift down over the m/a. seems the mid/deeper layer flow is so fast over all that it's outpacing the the ability for the llv's to catch up. even though the air mass is moving S-N at low levels ... it's still dense and viscous. the nam seems to resolve that by spinning up the new low because the wind over the water immediately east of the coast is obviously less resistant... it's more like a purer mechanical circulation more so than having baroclinic thermodynamics involved. either way... should the nam succeed and that does close off as it move over or just se of the region, it will definitely delay the warm air arrival - after that it becomes a matter of how long. ...6 hours ...12... for ever... I don't think it would be forever, because eventually the pressure disontinuity moves off and there's really nothing to prevent the ageostrophic flow from just dying.. that would leave the area exposed and naked...defenseless against the onslaught of SSW flow fisting up the coast from the m/a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 RGEM showing some enhancement along coastline as well. CF enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: RGEM showing some enhancement along coastline as well. CF enhancement. That's a great run for SE areas who are looking for the best possible outcome out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 IF we manage to put down 3-4 inches do you think its gone Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, CarverWX said: IF we manage to put down 3-4 inches do you think its gone Sunday? Most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 That's a bad run for most folks. 1" in Central, Mass? Take the way over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Snowing again here in St. Johnsbury. At 10 am I drove through a squall just south of town on 191. Visibility was 1/10th of a mile at best for a couple of miles and there were a few spots visibility was 1/20 of a mile based on the mile markers which in that stretch are every .05 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That's a bad run for most folks. 1" in Central, Mass? Take the way over It's only through 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 it's also possible the NAM is over done with that mechanical forced sort of low there ... The Euro might pick up on something like that and I don't think it is as robust as the NAM. interesting test - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 That 12z RGEM run is not even in range yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Temp continuing to dip down in GC. 15.5. I think it was 20* when I got up at 3:00a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: 4KM NAM also shows cold tuck potential in ern/NA MA after temps try to creep into U30s. Another hazard to watch. Puts most of E MA from I-90 northward back below freezing late afternoon and early evening. That would be really nasty...you'd prob get a flash freeze with all the low level moisture hanging around....it could end up as 33-34F instead, but that is something that could be really dangerous actually if its like 28-30F like the 4km NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's only through 12z Saturday. Guess he missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Buried. Long-live arctic FROPAs. Another 6" last night with the wind shift. 5 feet so far in December now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 GFS is even showing the coastal enhancement to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: GFS is even showing the coastal enhancement to some extent. There's def gonna be a potent CF that develops in this...and those just on the cold side of it will get enhancement for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: There's def gonna be a potent CF that develops in this...and those just on the cold side of it will get enhancement for a time. And it's something that'll be tough to model well. WIll become more a short range/ nowcast detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Retailers will be cringing at the Saturday forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Puts most of E MA from I-90 northward back below freezing late afternoon and early evening. That would be really nasty...you'd prob get a flash freeze with all the low level moisture hanging around....it could end up as 33-34F instead, but that is something that could be really dangerous actually if its like 28-30F like the 4km NAM shows. seems like it's been a while since we've seen a straight up BL resistance scenario... i was writing about that a little while ago .. .how this whole ordeal is like the mid level rage is out-pacing the ability for the llv to move in lock-step, so you end up with enhancing isentropic lift ... and hygroscopic feed-back... and viscous terminating seaward-related coastal 'fake' low but real enough to impart drain... all of it all that is taking place amid the east striations of a straight S-N 'look' in the atmosphere. very interesting scenario - Euro doesn't seem to be as 'on the same page' as these other meso tools which is a wonder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 16.5F heavy snow squalls vis 1/8 lots of blowing and drifting snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Is it possible the south coastal areas get some OES enhancement for a brief period early Saturday morning? I am wondering about a still-cold south wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 32 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 16.5F heavy snow squalls vis 1/8 lots of blowing and drifting snow... +SHSN at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 OK I have never seen the snow totally obscure the trees in my backyard on cam like it is right now. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, dendrite said: OK I have never seen the snow totally obscure the trees in my backyard on cam like it is right now. Damn. dumpage, wouldn't want to be on the highway right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: dumpage, wouldn't want to be on the highway right now And just like that it let's up. Down to 15F though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, dendrite said: And just like that it let's up. Down to 15F though. I liked this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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