Dec 15-18 Arctic Front/Snow Thump/Meltdown to the Border

[dryslot]

Like to see the GFS ramp up some on the front end stuff, Being weak is concerning but it seems to be the out liar in that aspect

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well the GFS Bufkit briefly mixes MHT out to 72 knots, so I guess I could run with that.

Lock it in.

[OceanStWx]

Seeing that near saturated layer on a lot of forecast soundings, that would be a red flag for me. That could mean lapse rates less than dry adiabatic, which diminishes the mix down potential of the wind.

Maybe near the terrain, downsloping can help that out.

[OceanStWx]

I was told models all shifted SW with the highest wind potential.

GFS (and NAM and Euro) argue otherwise. They have the bowling ball lobe of PV drilling right across ME tomorrow night.

735 mb on the GFS, that's even better than last night. So if BOX is banging the trop fold idea they have more work to do than we do. Actually the best PV lobe swings through SNE during the day today, and not tonight when they have the highest winds in the forecast.

[dryslot]

Hmm, Odd, That's not what the Kuro had

[Typhoon Tip]

If we are going to flip the atmosphere over from higher than the boundary layer than that's a different story

[Typhoon Tip]

 something white out snow squall with the 63 mph wind gust

[OceanStWx]

Actually dprog/dt of the 4km NAM has shown the highest wind gusts steadily creeping N into southern NH. 

[weathafella]

Nice front ender on GFS-definite improvement for mby.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Actually dprog/dt of the 4km NAM has shown the highest wind gusts steadily creeping N into southern NH. 

Looks like maybe a separate area going WNW-ESE near 03z from ALB to ORH-TAN or so.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looks like maybe a separate area going WNW-ESE near 03z from ALB to ORH-TAN or so.

Yeah that's the area I was keying on. That's probably the one tied to trop interaction, as it looks like the real CAA winds delay until closer to daybreak Friday.

Compare 12z to 00z below. It definitely makes a move towards NH.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nice front ender on GFS-definite improvement for mby.

here as well. wct wma do ok. hasnt been any big changes for days now, pretty consistent signal with minor fluctuations for certain locals but the overall look has been steady. i kind of expect some colder ticks upcoming though, once the low level cold is entrenched tom into fri. 

[OceanStWx]

And for reference, that 53 knots is 61 mph, and the whole HWW has 65 mph and the AFD mentions 80 mph. 

I just think the vast majority of people will see less than 65 mph.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

KTOL will be heartbroken if he doesnt have to pick up twigs in his backyard come friday. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

And for reference, that 53 knots is 61 mph, and the whole HWW has 65 mph and the AFD mentions 80 mph. 

I just think the vast majority of people will see less than 65 mph.

Yes, I believe you are correct.  Wind gusts Almost always verify lower than forecast.  Not always, but most times for sure.   Maybe this time it's the time it verifies....we'll see??? 

[OceanStWx]

We've been actually discussing this recently in our office, that we are tasked to forecast wind gust but often times it's the peak wind that people take note of our can cause damage.

If we forecast the peak wind as wind gust, most of the time we will be too high on our wind gusts. If we forecast wind gusts as traditionally, we will miss the highest reported winds.

But peak winds and wind gusts, they just aren't the most frequent ones. 

Like this event strikes me as a 45-50 mph gusts with peak winds of around 60 mph. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Can any met tell me what to expect on Cape Cod in terms of winds?

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Can any met tell me what to expect on Cape Cod in terms of winds?

You might be the winner. The relatively warm bay waters plus CAA should help steepen the low level lapse rates to help mixing along. You're as good for 60+ mph as anyone.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

NAM has gusts reaching 70 knots (80mph) over Cape and Islands, NAM also has some parts of the region gusting to 90mph if the inversion is right at 700mb

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Awesome, I can't wait for the winds.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You might be the winner. The relatively warm bay waters plus CAA should help steepen the low level lapse rates to help mixing along. You're as good for 60+ mph as anyone.

YEah the NWS was mentioning SST-850mb temp differential reaching +30C

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

According to a few models, Cape Cod could see thunder snows tomorrow morning around 9-15z

[mahk_webstah]

Did I see a BOX map with 4-6 inches over a lot of interior SNE?  Because GYX map has <1" for most of S and C NH.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Any snow over in western MA and CT?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Did I see a BOX map with 4-6 inches over a lot of interior SNE?  Because GYX map has <1" for most of S and C NH.

I think those are for a separate event

[mahk_webstah]

ah

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Did I see a BOX map with 4-6 inches over a lot of interior SNE?  Because GYX map has <1" for most of S and C NH.

Yeah I actually lamented this fact a page or two back. Cherry picking which event we're doing maps for gets confusing. We have snow expected with the squalls, so that's what we're highlighting right now.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah I actually lamented this fact a page or two back. Cherry picking which event we're doing maps for gets confusing. We have snow expected with the squalls, so that's what we're highlighting right now.

gracias.

Mrs.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Ocean Effect Snow showers developing in the wsw flow

[eyewall]

Just had the Lake Ontario band pivot through the BTV area with help from one of the coming fronts. It was a nice 2 inch per hour burst and gave us a quick inch or maybe a little better.