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Dec 15-18 Arctic Front/Snow Thump/Meltdown to the Border


HoarfrostHubb

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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I was just wondering what sort of ratios we may see with this.  I know air temps are pretty cold that doesn't drive ratios.  Is 10:1 or higher a good starting point?  I'm thinking higher but we shall soon see.

I think they will be reduced as the mid levels warm..

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18 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I was just wondering what sort of ratios we may see with this.  I know air temps are pretty cold that doesn't drive ratios.  Is 10:1 or higher a good starting point?  I'm thinking higher but we shall soon see.

I feel like ratios are never clear cut for myself so I just go with fluff or wet lol and let the qpf do the work. but, in the end what is the difference between 12:1 on 0.5 qpf vs 10:1? meaning, im not gonna go nuts fighting over 6" vs 5". its a good snowfall regardless, looks pretty, and the fun to be had is still there. Maybe in large systems where we fight for ratios because it makes the difference between 18" vs 22" but thats really for own weenie egos claiming our jackpot throne anyways. 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All 3 have 5 here 

But, I think the first few hours of their radar coverage maps is actually evaporating as they show snow breaking out in the next couple hours.  I think that's actually going to be lost to moisten up the atmosphere a bit.  So, while the radar simulations are showing its snowing, there's zilch showing as accumulated for a few hours.

For those interested, here are the last two HRRR totals.  The newest run has come in colder allowing for a pretty uniform 4"coverage.  Not as much as Monday, but it'll help keep what's already on the ground.

hrrr_asnow_neus_18.png

 

hrrr_asnow_neus_17.png

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4 hours ago, WthrJunkyME said:

We're at 8 below already tonight.  They were calling for a low tonight of 3 below.  Already colder than last night's low and still dropping.  Makes me wonder how far off the NWS forecast is for the remainder of the weekend?

Meh. Busting on radiational cooling doesn't mean the rest of the weekend is wrong. 

For the record I was always on tonight to be as cold or colder than last night because of the high location and decoupling potential with WAA aloft. It's usually night two after the cold front that gets the best temps. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Wow you aren't kidding... that's 7 plus for all of West and west central CT.  Hope it's right.  

Thank you for posting that Runnaway :-).

I dont play games with this stuff, peoples emotional well being are at stake. 

cant wait to take my 8month out when it's ripping, he better like it or a quick call to the adoption agency cometh.

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I dont play games with this stuff, peoples emotional well being are at stake. 

cant wait to take my 8month out when it's ripping, he better like it or a quick call to the adoption agency cometh.

Lmao...he will-it runs in the genes!!!!  Went out to dinner...but I stayed up when we got home to watch it start.  Was snizzling, but nothing now.  

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