ma blizzard Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 I think the potential is there for a period of strong winds along with the passage of the arctic front .. Unsure if hww criteria is met, but this is quite the impressive sounding: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That's a phail . There isn't any guidance other than NAM under 55 That seems like a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: That seems like a stretch. Too many Swish for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Too many Swish for you? I wish. One more mid to go then the taps open up. But I would find it hard to believe all models have come in with greater than 55 mph gusts. I'll have more thoughts once I dig into things at work in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I wish. One more mid to go then the taps open up. But I would find it hard to believe all models have come in with greater than 55 mph gusts. I'll have more thoughts once I dig into things at work in a few hours. After 3 tonight it's bedtime.. looking forward to your HWW thoughts and damage analysis early tomorrow As an FYI.. Ryan went on air mentioning gusts to 60.. so the threats real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That's a phail . There isn't any guidance other than NAM under 55 Link? I just went through a few and found none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Peak gust will be no more than 35-40mph here. Wind never materializes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: After 3 tonight it's bedtime.. looking forward to your HWW thoughts and damage analysis early tomorrow As an FYI.. Ryan went on air mentioning gusts to 60.. so the threats real Oh the potential is there. But I'm thinking more isolated higher gusts, but a general widespread 45 or 50 mph. A lot needs to come together right for 60+ to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2016 Author Share Posted December 15, 2016 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That's a phail . There isn't any guidance other than NAM under 55 Over under on the number of reports from airports in SNE over 55? My call is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Over under on the number of reports from airports in SNE over 55? My call is 2 All 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2016 Author Share Posted December 15, 2016 BOX has a snowfall map out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Ryan likes the wind and squall threat on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2016 Author Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just the point and click fetish but this is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 It's a big deal when Ryan says "yikes" and it's not a response to one of DITs posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: BOX has a snowfall map out /MPM/ the point and click isn't showing that. I guess they'll be adjusting that map down /MPM/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Just the point and click fetish but this is impressive I think the 45-50 mph for several hours is fair and a good forecast. But I guess my issue is putting in 60+ to the grids like it's a certainty. I think that's more likely the peak wind we see, not the most frequent gust. So what exactly are we forecasting on the website? Almost a philosophy question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: /MPM/ the point and click isn't showing that. I guess they'll be adjusting that map down /MPM/ Of course they already have a map out. At least it shouldn't change a dozen times before Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Of course they already have a map out. At least it shouldn't change a dozen times before Saturday. There was some decision a while ago to start putting maps out at 60/72 hours. Not sure if that is just a local office thing or not but it is questionable....so often the uncertainty is way too high. In this current system the guidance has been fairly consistent, but that obviously isn't always going to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2016 Author Share Posted December 15, 2016 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: /MPM/ the point and click isn't showing that. I guess they'll be adjusting that map down /MPM/ It seems a bit early, but what are ya gonna do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2016 Author Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Of course they already have a map out. At least it shouldn't change a dozen times before Saturday. #betweenofficefight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: There was some decision a while ago to start putting maps out at 60/72 hours. Not sure if that is just a local office thing or not but it is questionable....so often the uncertainty is way too high. In this current system the guidance has been fairly consistent, but that obviously isn't always going to be the case. I mean we can decide what event to highlight independently, but like we have upslope and snow squalls coming before Saturday. So that's going to be our storm total. So it looks like we aren't forecasting as much if people don't pay attention to date stamps. It is a race now though to get those maps out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: #betweenofficefight I don't want to be first, I want to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I don't want to be first, I want to be right. Well to be fair the big winds are SW of your forecast area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Well to be fair the big winds are SW of your forecast area You're hoping anyway. And it's not like the winds will be stronger just because they are SW of the area I forecast for. I'm just describing what I saw from model guidance. 70 mph winds are like the 95th or 99th percentile of possible outcomes from this event. Without some sort of 100 knot LLJ or convection induced mix down, I think you would struggle to find many (any?) HWWs with 70 mph wind gusts let alone westerly wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Low max at KBOS on Friday is 18. Per most guidance that should fall even with non-diurnal temps overnight. Low min of 1 in less jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Still a nice front end thump on the 0z Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Still a nice front end thump on the 0z Nam. Still has the meso low too but it's a bit inland this run down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Still has the meso low too but it's a bit inland this run down here. Having that low a little inland made it a tic or two warmer right along the immediate coast down that way it looked like as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 yea, not as good out here. sucks cuz that is a big front ender of cold rain, with better confluence this would have been a solid 6-10" type deal. as is, 3-5" aint bad...just gets washed away quickly. I despise that feel and look of heavy rain on top of fresh snow, turns into a slop fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Well the GFS Bufkit briefly mixes MHT out to 72 knots, so I guess I could run with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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