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Dec 15-18 Arctic Front/Snow Thump/Meltdown to the Border


HoarfrostHubb

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57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The GFS has also trended colder. It has a great 3-4 hr burst from like 9a-12pm give or take. Some of the mesos have had a drier area of QPF over parts of SE MA..maybe because of forcing issues...but I would not worry too much yet. 

I hope this doesn't keep trending colder into a CJ coastal front configuration.

Starting to fear exhaust.

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1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

I agree. Show us the goods or gtfo.

j/k

Lol!!!

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

quarter to half inch

Nice.....make for great pictures. 

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

This air mass means business too, After a high of 3°F today, Back down to -2.4°F

Nice.  We stalled at 10.  Clouds encroaching,  ftw.  I don't like Ray 's exhaust comment.  I'm sticking get with the "highest amount" map from BOX showing my 8".  And I'm not talking about my avatar.   :)

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looking at the hi res NAM WRF....I think i may be near the sweet spot for cf enhancement.....really wish wxbell had the RGEM.

Not sure why they don't.

Yeah you should do well esp the final 3 hours or so before the flip. Earlier before that the best cf enhancement will be SE. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you should do well esp the final 3 hours or so before the flip. Earlier the best cf enhancement will be SE. 

The cf really begins to coalesce when it encroaches on the 128 area....from mid to late AM, so I think I may go to town for a while.

Have the RGEM?

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fairly certain the following opine won't register and/or just irate some ... but, don't be fooled by how cold it was last night and today. 

granted, this is a unique scenario that may very well succeed in actually 'winning' against a deep layer SW flow (...mainly because we have a weak (but strong enough) secondary...) but, it is possible flip some 50 F in as little as 12 hours given the right circumstance.  i know - i've seen it.  

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

fairly certain the following opine won't register and/or just irate some ... but, don't be fooled by how cold it was last night and today. 

granted, this is a unique scenario that may very well succeed in actually 'winning' against a deep layer SW flow (...mainly because we have a weak (but strong enough) secondary...) but, it is possible flip some 50 F in as little as 12 hours given the right circumstance.  i know - i've seen it.  

Who is doubting this?

Its been established for days-

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

fairly certain the following opine won't register and/or just irate some ... but, don't be fooled by how cold it was last night and today. 

granted, this is a unique scenario that may very well succeed in actually 'winning' against a deep layer SW flow (...mainly because we have a weak (but strong enough) secondary...) but, it is possible flip some 50 F in as little as 12 hours given the right circumstance.  i know - i've seen it.  

You've seen it.  Lucky!  Never had the opportunity 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who is doubting this?

Its been established for days-

yeeeah, okay - if you say so. 

the 'music' of the forum isn't conveying that same melody, Ray -come on. it's not a difficult read when when you see a constant stream of 'this cold means business' type content, based on a present thermometer ob - there's no other reason to say things like that other than to believe it has some special resistance to warming.  

it may - look, i'm not doubting the agreement between the RGEM and NAM ..and the trend of the others.  i'm just saying 'in general' it's possible. and should it warm more in the end than presently believed or wanted, there's a dying hope folks won't get grousy about it. 

word

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