Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 heh, if i had to hunch.. the RGEM (as much as I appreciate that model for this sort of buffer) is probably too liberal with the cold-hold-on look there. having said that, i do think (based in no small part on personal experience as a man succumbing to the universal constant of time...) that whatever is thought of warm frontal position... knock 6 to 12 hours minimum off that timing as a general correction rule of thumb. every situation comes with something unique about it...but, putting all those passed experiences/examples in a blender and pouring a cup, the result is usually a cooler beverage when it comes to warm fronts N of NYC trying to smear out cold of any kind. right up the dial of resistance, you add time to that need... .be it 1 hour or 1 day... you add. this smells like a 9 hour delay bust to me. just because as i've outlined, this system's uniqueness is that it's actually moving TOO FAST above at mid levels... the warm push moves off, and the 'slosh back' ageostrophy takes over and frankly it's awesome that any model even shows that enough... we'll see- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Lol at the GFS jack at the Mastiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Look how cold Rgem keeps it tomorrow night! That's 7:00p.m. Saturday. That's not exacty 'through the night'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 RGEM being so cold is def an eye opener though. It scores the best with low level temps and this is a situation it would excel at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: you guys should lay off on the wind 'backdraft' it's okay to be satirical/sarcastic a little, but carrying on about it sounds like "ignient" rabble honking like donkeys the wind warning was not unwarranted. the indicators were there. not every 'imminent threat in the atmosphere is realized - that's just the state of the art of the present era. tornado warning more often means no tornado, but it does not follow to ridicule there, either. if they didn't do such a warning given the data, and 65 mph mixing became more common, the hypocrisy would know no bounds - let it go already. christ. Calm down, way too emotional. There is nothing wrong with being critical if it warrants it. Your comparing tornado warnings to hww now to justify your point? Come on dood, go outside and get some fresh air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM being so cold is def an eye opener though. It scores the best with low level temps and this is a situation it would excel at. It did well last year with a few wedge situations. Even more of an eye opener is how cold the GFS is in NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Calm down, way too emotional. There is nothing wrong with being critical if it warrants it. Your comparing tornado warnings to hww now to justify your point? Come on dood, go outside and get some fresh air. what? really. you are precisely attempting attempting to label me with what i was attempting to point out about ...whomever was doing that. my response was entirely analytical. you guys doing that need to let it go. i said, (and you didn't read clearly) that it's okay to be satirical and sarcastic a little, but those posts are going on and on and on about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol at the GFS jack at the Mastiff We AC/ DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: what? really. you are precisely attempting attempting to label me with what i was attempting to point out about ...whomever was doing that. my response was entirely analytical. My point was, if the winds were not verifying and you have first hand knowledge of it then don't baby b*tch your way down in the forecast. Call it like it is, and upton often does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM being so cold is def an eye opener though. It scores the best with low level temps and this is a situation it would excel at. i agree in principle - i'm just not sure on that magnitude is what i mean - not that anyone asked. 20 F at ORH ...if it's that cold with ageostrophic drain going on there's no warm penetration at all... and that sort of a conundrum looking at the total synoptic evolution. it would be a first to "flip" 20 to 25 F cold instantly to 50...that's usually some grind for us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol at the GFS jack at the Mastiff Too bad it's a garbage model. j/k The high res NAM's are targeting GC and Litchfield County. RGEM and GFS are liking the two upper corners of CT. One concern I have is how much of this will not be reaching the ground--it's very dry. Which models best pick up on that? Holding in single digits at 11:00a.m. Not too shabby. 7.8* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM being so cold is def an eye opener though. It scores the best with low level temps and this is a situation it would excel at. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: My point was, if the winds were not verifying and you have first hand knowledge of it then don't baby b*tch your way down in the forecast. Call it like it is, and upton often does not. dude, you are a grade a perfect example of a proletariat honk that has unfortunately access to any public pulpit. holy crap. you automatically assign conflict and intent to other people and that is clearly a hallmark of unsophisticated simpleton thinking. have a good one - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 A lot of whoosh over Tippy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: dude, you are a grade a perfect example of a proletariat honk that has unfortunately access to any public pulpit. holy crap. you automatically assign conflict and intent to other people and that is clearly a hallmark of unsophisticated simpleton thinking. have a good one - Lighten up, Francis....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Got down to 2* for the low last night.. Currently 7.3/-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Remember when several laughed Ryan Bob at the prospect of ice, GFS has some significant Ice in spots .3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It did well last year with a few wedge situations. Even more of an eye opener is how cold the GFS is in NE MA. Thinking tmw is 12-21-08's little brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like an 8-10 hour period mostly Sunday morning of 40's.. perhaps low 50's in spots. Front crashes thru midday so it's not prolonged , but it may be enough to wipe out most of it. It keeps Greenfield area near 32 the entire time so Chris keeps his pack and MPM should keep some I could see us with a brief spike into the 40's but yeah, looks like no loss here and maybe even a net gain by the time the front comes through and locks it up. (Still a solid 3-4" pack here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thinking tmw is 12-21-08's little brother. Could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 I'm not sure the RGEM being colder for Saturday night helps us much (perhaps it will help the CT folks a little). For many the dry slot has moved in by then and the second (primary?) low tracks so far North and West it scrubs out the cold air quickly and we rain. Edit: Never mind - actually looked at the RGEM instead of the NAM(s) and see now that the cold provides a decent period of sleet across W. NE for much of the wee hours of Sunday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: i agree in principle - i'm just not sure on that magnitude is what i mean - not that anyone asked. 20 F at ORH ...if it's that cold with ageostrophic drain going on there's no warm penetration at all... and that sort of a conundrum looking at the total synoptic evolution. it would be a first to "flip" 20 to 25 F cold instantly to 50...that's usually some grind for us here. Yeah I mean I don't think it's going to be verbatim what the RGEM shows. But anytime its flagging that type of cold at the sfc, then it's prob a good idea to hedge on the colder side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 well it's beautiful out, and I cannot see a comparison to VD 16 as that, at least down here was remarkably more brutal and with bare ground!! I remember going outside that Sunday morning with temps -15 or -16 and wind 15 gusting to 25-30...that is man cold I know it was more frigid north of here this morning and for mid December respectable but an utter toaster bath compared to last VD...and winds slackened with a solid coating of fresh powder and we only got down into the low to mid singles....meh as far as the wind stuff goes it is akin for many of us as to being promised two feet of snow and 8 inches falls, since the wind issues were much more widespread to the s/e then it had some merit in those places but Box going wild like they did is just shades of March 2001, Jan 2016, Jan 2005 and so on and the fact that FDs are now incorporating all this drama like tv, radio and twitter is kinda a bummer bc that was one of the last unspoiled sources of unbiased wx info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, CoolMike said: I'm not sure the RGEM being colder for Saturday night helps us much (perhaps it will help the CT folks a little). For many the dry slot has moved in by then and the second (primary?) low tracks so far North and West it scrubs out the cold air quickly and we rain. It's not supposed to affect the ptype right before the front. That's always going to be rain. What it does is prolong the CAD and that is a big deal for both retaining any front end snow and also could prove quite hazardous for driving Saturday evening with freezing drizzle. There's no avoiding the warm up before the front...but it can be delayed by many hours which is significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Remember when several laughed Ryan Bob at the prospect of ice, GFS has some significant Ice in spots .3 Doesn't the GFS tend to overdo ice signals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 We wedge, Quite sure we mix out during the day on Sunday, But it appears to be short lived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It's not supposed to affect the ptype right before the front. That's always going to be rain. What it does is prolong the CAD and that is a big deal for both retaining any front end snow and also could prove quite hazardous for driving Saturday evening with freezing drizzle. There's no avoiding the warm up before the front...but it can be delayed by many hours which is significant. Thanks - I get what you're saying. Shorten the period of the warm-up and preserve a little snowpack after the storm. For me I've got a 3 inch glacier from the last two events in my front yard that's hopefully being added to over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Snowcover throughout CNE and NNE will help temps to underperform the consensus. Also the more we see the lead wave intensify, the more it will act to weaken/dampen the subsequent wave, helping to limit a potential surge of WAA Saturday night/Sunday Morning. In sum this is a case of destructive wave interference that actually works to our benefit (for once). Personally I like the 12z RGEM's take on this, and wouldn't bet against a trend that continues colder with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Doesn't the GFS tend to overdo ice signals? Not alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 We wedge, Quite sure we mix out during the day on Sunday, But it appears to be short lived That would be oK with me. How much liquid on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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