CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 I'm definitely hedging colder for tomorrow afternoon into the first part of tomorrow night. I would not be surprised if we stayed below freezing in northern Connecticut and Central and Western Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 What happened to the killer wind we where supposed to get overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 and right on cue after my last post the low resolution NAM looks to tick a bit warmer tomorrow afternoon and evening south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Still -2F. We Chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 9 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: What happened to the killer wind we where supposed to get overnight? Tropopause fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Foot of snow on the ground with snow falling and temp of 2f. Deep deep winter here. Hope to cap it with a bit more before the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Foot of snow on the ground with snow falling and temp of 2f. Deep deep winter here. Hope to cap it with a bit more before the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Yeah 4KM NAM is warmer, esp BOS-SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Tropopause fold. The sound of the snowplow last night scrapping away our hefty 0.5" snowfall was louder than the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Pffff, us lower elevations laugh at your cold at 1k. Down to -10/-12 now. That's just crazy this time of year. We hit -4... very impressive in its own right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah 4KM NAM is warmer, esp BOS-SE. Bit of a screw zone as the low traverses over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 10 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I was thinking...."they are gonna revise that overnight". Pretty much every model shows it. Euro has been the weakest with it, but it's still there. I'll bet it shows up more on tonight's run. yeah, i was 'interested' ( i realize this discussion is some 10 hours old at this point, still...) because the RGEM was pretty squarely in the NAM's camp - even if not entirely, enough so to consider it; particularly, my personal findings are that the two best gems that come from Canada are: the RGEM for sorting out these kind of nuance riddled shorter range butt bangs and the 10-day temperature anomaly. anyway, that was more than a single outlier. i don't want to impugn nws - just that i wonder if they are aware of that? RGEM stuff. to each is own i suppose. if it were the NAM alone...okay, i could also come up with reasons why it might be overly committed to a secondary - i did actually expand on that the other day, that it's finer mesh might be 'over' assessing the bl resistance near the coastal plain in the fast flow and manufacturing curl there for fluid dynamical balancing... but, just the same, it's finer mesh may also be seeing the outright necessity to do so just as well... seems 'trend' is toward more curl there. again, i just think the flow is SO fast, that it's actually like going back in favor of keeping the surface cold because the flow and speed up all it wants; there are certain physical laws of viscosity that can't be broken and the surface simply needs at least SOME time to 'catch-up' to the changes aloft. the curl is the nams (sort of way) of dealing with that. okay, make a little hook back low and we don't have to then get rid of the cold coastal plain nearly as fast - done deal. fascinating really... anyway, at this point, so much llv cold appears to be left behind that the biggest thrust of warmth aloft may in fact move off and i'm beginning to hunch that warm air never gets to central new england. the 00z Euro actually did pancake the latitude of the warm sector a little...seemingly never getting into the btv-car axis at all...and i got a feeling at the bottom of the atm there's draining down to almost nh/ma border... this is a fluid scenario, don't hold a pistol to my head if that doesn't happen. just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Bit of a screw zone as the low traverses over us. That was the 4KM version for whatever reason. The others weren't like that. But it shows you how a few miles means everything as far as low track goes...and how much will the front end thump us. Still has that weenie band near extreme Se ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3km NAM is the same.. Regions Prev. Runs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Nam 3k and 4k snow maps look better down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 9 hours ago, LikesNaturesFury said: OK, so it's not just me imagining it, lol! The NWS forecast was odd (unusual, different), in that it called for pretty low sustained winds, but had (comparatively) ***way higher*** gusts than what would normally happen with the lower sustained winds. I'm actually surprised that we still have power, after that incredible burst of wind. Surprised and happy, I will add mmm, it actually makes sense that way. this was an unusual scenario where the gradient supported velocities that were exceeded by mixing from high altitudes. this plume of cold air came down with a nucleus that was destablizing the atmosphere to the ~ 700 mb level; that's getting respectable in altitude where typically there is zippo muting of wind velocity in the atmosphere. mixing from that level in pulsed torrents do to an unstable lapse rate would tend to cause "rogue" wind gusts that exceed anything that else that happened during a given hour or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was the 4KM version for whatever reason. The others weren't like that. But it shows you how a few miles means everything as far as low track goes...and how much will the front end thump us. Still has that weenie band near extreme Se ma. Looked like there was a nice back bent WF. Could be some intense rates for a few hours along that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 DIT, your map postings eff the whole page on mobile man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 nam amounts with rgem temp profiles, yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like solid 3-4 for Boston. I also am concerned they drop below 32 and ice everything op, tomorrow aftn. I haven't seen that mentioned on air. flash freeze? here even? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was the 4KM version for whatever reason. The others weren't like that. But it shows you how a few miles means everything as far as low track goes...and how much will the front end thump us. Still has that weenie band near extreme Se ma. Scott, I understand fluff at the start, is this a long duration before the change over for S.NH? ty Philip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: flash freeze? here even? Yeah perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 I find flash freezes are not something that happens very often in my neck of the woods...kind of like back side snows..not to often does it happen. Usually you have strong winds with the CAA that dry up a lot of the moisture more times than not. Just something I've observed. Maybe this time it's different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 5 minutes ago, 512high said: Scott, I understand fluff at the start, is this a long duration before the change over for S.NH? ty Philip You'll change to freezing rain in the aftn..probably after 2pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, WinterWolf said: I find flash freezes are not something that happens very often in my neck of the woods...kind of like back side snows..not to often does it happen. Usually you have strong winds with the CAA that dry up a lot of the moisture more times than not. Just something I've observed. Maybe this time it's different? This tuck is usually for NE MA since what happens is that the cold air comes back in, east of ORH hills where it can slosh down the coast..sometimes into the BOS area. This is after any weak low passes. It may not happen at BOS..but could occur in nearby suburbs to the nW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: DIT, your map postings eff the whole page on mobile man. I found that too. So I just click on the maps, then X out and your page is ok. If you try and zoom in then your done, and have to go back to the main page I found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: This tuck is usually for NE MA since what happens is that the cold air comes back in, east of ORH hills where it can slosh down the coast..sometimes into the BOS area. This is after any weak low passes. It may not happen at BOS..but could occur in nearby suburbs to the nW. Oh ok, that makes sense. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You'll change to freezing rain in the aftn..probably after 2pm or so. thanks ....I guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was the 4KM version for whatever reason. The others weren't like that. But it shows you how a few miles means everything as far as low track goes...and how much will the front end thump us. Still has that weenie band near extreme Se ma. heh... i think the 'reason' could be because as we near the event, it's maximizing the ability of these finer meshed model types to see those absurd sort of "meso" gradients - we've been discussing on one hand, the idea of the NAM and RGEM compressing the thermal wall close to BOS in a secondary ageostrophic push late Saturday; well, it works the other direction too... not trying to be snippy but, we have to consider that with the high moving (still) pretty perfectly wrong for sustaining cold, the wind veering is going to initially push a strong marine yadda yadda yadda into the immediate coastal plain. I bet when it's +5 C at BOS it's like -3 C at BED at some point on Saturday late morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 most arent in their coverage area, and im not one to bash on offices, but upton needs to improve. they have been terrible for a few years now...lacking consistency, going big way too early when they clearly should not have (jan 2015 blizz), being late to nyc jan 2016 blizz, their grids and advisory forecasts dont match, last night they slowly trimmed the max wind gusts from 55, 49, 36, 29 like every other hour when winds were calm and the hww busted. they did samething in jan 2015 blizz, slowly lowering amounts when the storm was practically over already and their final amounts where still too high when the sun came out. lol. peoples wont take you seriously if you cant get it together and be consistent in your approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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