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Dec 15-18 Arctic Front/Snow Thump/Meltdown to the Border


HoarfrostHubb

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OK, so it's not just me imagining it, lol! The NWS forecast was odd (unusual, different), in that it called for pretty low sustained winds, but had (comparatively) ***way higher*** gusts than what would normally happen with the lower sustained winds. I'm actually surprised that we still have power, after that incredible burst of wind. Surprised and happy, I will add :P

 

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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

not liking this one ey?

I'm not saying 4-7 can't happen but it would have to pound mod to heavy snow for 6 -7 hours to see those kind of numbers. And i think the bulk of the accumulating snow is only a 3 to 4, perhaps 5, hour window. A general 2 to 5 across the state should do it, closer to 5 in the N and W and 2 along the SE shoreline. I hope I'm wrong but i just dont see those 6"+ amounts verifying for a good chunk of the state, if it does happen it will be localized in the hills somewhere.

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33 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That looks a lot different than what I saw on tropical tidbits... must be the snow algorithm 

It's because that map was a weenie algorithm that used more than 10 to 1 ratios. Snow maps are the worst....they aren't telling you how much snow the model predicts, they are telling you what the algorithm thinks the model is predicting.

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's because that map was a weenie algorithm that used more than 10 to 1 ratios. Snow maps are the worst....they aren't telling you how much snow the model predicts, they are telling you what the algorithm thinks the model is predicting.

Kuchera method . Please inform the good Dr. TIA 

Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MAXTMP)
2) If MAXTMP is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MAXTMP)
3) If MAXTMP is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + (271.16-MAXTMP)
The 3-hourly snowfall (SNOW) is RATIO multiplied by the three hour liquid precipitation total. The accumulated snowfall (ACCUM_SNOW) is the sum of all the SNOW values up to that projection time.

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38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Kuchera method . Please inform the good Dr. TIA 

Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MAXTMP)
2) If MAXTMP is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MAXTMP)
3) If MAXTMP is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + (271.16-MAXTMP)
The 3-hourly snowfall (SNOW) is RATIO multiplied by the three hour liquid precipitation total. The accumulated snowfall (ACCUM_SNOW) is the sum of all the SNOW values up to that projection time.

besides the kuchera method though, pivotalweather's snow maps give different amounts than tropicaltidbits. Like even the 10:1 nam weenie map on pw looks vastly different. dxr has 1" on pw and 5-6" on tidbits. 

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3KM NAM continues to crush most..this one has all the earmarks of a big over performer

 

 06z Friday, Dec 16 fh = 4006z Friday, Dec 16 fh = 4600z Friday, Dec 16 fh = 5218z Thursday, Dec 15 fh = 5812z Thursday, Dec 15 fh = 6406z Thursday, Dec 15 fh = 7000z Thursday, Dec 15 fh = 7618z Wednesday, Dec 14 fh = 8212z Wednesday, Dec 14 fh = 8806z Wednesday, Dec 14 fh = 9400z Wednesday, Dec 14 fh = 10018z Tuesday, Dec 13 fh = 10612z Tuesday, Dec 13 fh = 11206z Tuesday, Dec 13 fh = 11800z Tuesday, Dec 13 fh = 12418z Monday, Dec 12 fh = 13012z Monday, Dec 12 fh = 13606z Monday, Dec 12 fh = 14200z Monday, Dec 12 fh = 14818z Sunday, Dec 11 fh = 15412z Sunday, Dec 11 fh = 16006z Sunday, Dec 11 fh = 16600z Sunday, Dec 11 fh = 17218z Saturday, Dec 10 fh = 17812z Saturday, Dec 10 
Forecast Hour:40
 
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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3KM NAM continues to crush most..this one has all the earmarks of a big over performer

 

 06z Friday, Dec 16 fh = 4006z Friday, Dec 16 fh = 4600z Friday, Dec 16 fh = 5218z Thursday, Dec 15 fh = 5812z Thursday, Dec 15 fh = 6406z Thursday, Dec 15 fh = 7000z Thursday, Dec 15 fh = 7618z Wednesday, Dec 14 fh = 8212z Wednesday, Dec 14 fh = 8806z Wednesday, Dec 14 fh = 9400z Wednesday, Dec 14 fh = 10018z Tuesday, Dec 13 fh = 10612z Tuesday, Dec 13 fh = 11206z Tuesday, Dec 13 fh = 11800z Tuesday, Dec 13 fh = 12418z Monday, Dec 12 fh = 13012z Monday, Dec 12 fh = 13606z Monday, Dec 12 fh = 14200z Monday, Dec 12 fh = 14818z Sunday, Dec 11 fh = 15412z Sunday, Dec 11 fh = 16006z Sunday, Dec 11 fh = 16600z Sunday, Dec 11 fh = 17218z Saturday, Dec 10 fh = 17812z Saturday, Dec 10 
Forecast Hour:40
 

How did that perform on Monday?  Looks like advisories for just about all is the case on most models.

 

-1.6

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All the mesos and even the awful at cold GFS shows the meso low tracking south of SNE with interior near freezing and BOX has everyone warming into the 40's tomorrow afternoon lol

???  My ZFP has 'mid-30's, and my p/c has a high of 35*.

It does torch Sunday though with a high of 46*

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