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Dec 15-18 Arctic Front/Snow Thump/Meltdown to the Border


HoarfrostHubb

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It looks like 9AM to Noon is the most fun Saturday?

Yeah probably the 2-3 hours right before the flip will be pretty heavy. BOS may get a flash freeze later in the afternoon after briefy going into the mid/upper 30s too. Both RGEM and NAM show this...hi res NAM has BOS back into the upper 20s actually which would be downright nasty of a flash freeze.

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Of course right after I finalize my plans to go back to Stamford on Friday instead of Monday this starts trending better for Boston :P 

Anyway, seeing the GFS picking up on the cold tuck makes me pretty confident it's legit - it's a terrible model for that sort of thing so when even it has it you know it's going to show up. Should be a nice advisory event for pretty much all of SNE it looks like, maybe NWCT up into interior MA can squeeze out low end warning? NAM products would argue for it - not sure I believe them though, although I suppose ratios are going to be >10:1 for at least part of it there so that could allow for some 6-7" totals.

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18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol..And then the rest of the 0Z/16 suite comes in colder...

I was thinking...."they are gonna revise that overnight".

 

Pretty much every model shows it. Euro has been the weakest with it, but it's still there. I'll bet it shows up more on tonight's run.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was thinking...."they are gonna revise that overnight".

 

Pretty much every model shows it. Euro has been the weakest with it, but it's still there. I'll bet it shows up more on tonight's run.

RGEM and even GFS locked in the surface cold better vs NAM.  I wouldn't be surprised if euro doesn't correct until 12Z.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

RGEM and even GFS locked in the surface cold better vs NAM.  I wouldn't be surprised if euro doesn't correct until 12Z.

It was years and many upgrades ago...but I remember the Euro was pretty awful in the Dec 2008 ice storm here...it was pretty warm...not as bad as the GFS in that event, but it got handled by the NAM.

Euro is typically pretty decent with CAD...but this is not typical CAD with the meso low forming...its an extra variable.

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