CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Winter of the NNE payback. Kind of nice to see. Long time coming. Although the higher elevations are reaping it much more so than lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Long time coming. Although the higher elevations are reaping it much more so than lower elevations. Even our flatlander posters are doing ok. If we group MPM in NNE due to his climo (although he is elevated)-when was the last time you saw him happy with his wx or qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Looking at the 18z GFS for CNE and NNE from perhaps Concord and on North and West it looks like ~.4 inches of precipitation as frozen and .6 inches of precipitation as rain. Am I reading this right? That sounds awful. Edit: Concord, NH of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, weathafella said: Even our flatlander posters are doing ok. If we group MPM in NNE due to his climo (although he is elevated)-when was the last time you saw him happy with his wx or qpf? Ye seems like a bunch of snow around up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Even our flatlander posters are doing ok. If we group MPM in NNE due to his climo (although he is elevated)-when was the last time you saw him happy with his wx or qpf? Oh yeah definitely. But I'm just speaking in a relative sense. The mtns have done well much more so compared to lower spots on a relative sense, but that may change this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Oh yeah definitely. But I'm just speaking in a relative sense. The mtns have done well much more so compared to lower spots on a relative sense, but that may change this weekend. BTV, PWM, and CON are pretty much running normal for snowfall...so an improvement, but nothing like the upslope places in VT. Though Saturday should bump them all solidly above normal (but that will also happen for SNE too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, CoolMike said: Looking at the 18z GFS for CNE and NNE from perhaps Concord and on North and West it looks like ~.4 inches of precipitation as frozen and .6 inches of precipitation as rain. Am I reading this right? That sounds awful. Edit: Concord, NH of course. Looking at the 12km NAM for the same region and period i'm seeing closer to .6 inches of frozen precip and something like .5-.6 inches of rain by the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just saw the 18z 4km sounding for BDL and its even more aggressive with the winds than previous runs lol...this run has 76 knots at the top of the mixing later potentially mixing down Even if that is reduced a bit by friction that's still gusts around 65-70 mph. Whether or not this is overdone I think the most impressive aspect if the NAM mixing pretty much dry adiabatically to like 9,000' (~700mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Wiz, what does the CHH sounding show in terms of wind potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Wiz, what does the CHH sounding show in terms of wind potential? "Only" has 61 knots as highest atop mixing layer for CHH. Out of the three locations I looked at (BDL, ORH, and CHH) BDL was highest. I think this is likely overdone for a few reasons; not sure if we will truly mix up to as high as 9,000' and friction would definitely cut these down. However, even cutting these back a bit (especially BDL) we're still looking at 65-75 knot gust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Wow 85mph gust potential, could it be anything like the December 9th 2005 Tropopause fold event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 lake Ontario already gusting to almost 60 knots (58.3 knots to be exact) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Winds begin around 8pm (01utc) and end around December 16th 11am (15utc), GFS now supports gusts near max of 80-85mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 GFS is sustained winds at 45 knots and gusts to 55 knots (65mph), NAM is closer to 70-85mph gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 12 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Wow 85mph gust potential, could it be anything like the December 9th 2005 Tropopause fold event? I guess if we mix as high as the NAM is suggesting it can't be completely ruled out. I think the NAM though tends to be too aggressive with the extent of mixing though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 In that event in 2005 what was the real factor that made it so violent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: In that event in 2005 what was the real factor that made it so violent? For once, explosive deepening. This will be nothing...NOTHING like that event. Not gonna happen, James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: For once, explosive deepening. This will be nothing...NOTHING like that event. Not gonna happen, James. Scott, is 85mph achievable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BTV, PWM, and CON are pretty much running normal for snowfall...so an improvement, but nothing like the upslope places in VT. Though Saturday should bump them all solidly above normal (but that will also happen for SNE too). We've now surpassed the highest snow depth of last winter. And in classic MMNV1 style, the snow depth increased by 5" from 35-40" while only recording 3" of new snow. The 6" on my board fits better with the depth increase, lol. Daily Hydrometeorological Data National Weather Service Burlington VT 511 PM EST THU DEC 15 2016 Station Precip Temperature Present Snow 24 Hrs Max Min Cur Weather New Total SWE ...Vermont... Mount Mansfield 0.17 12 -6 -5 Light snow 3.0 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We've now surpassed the highest snow depth of last winter. And in classic MMNV1 style, the snow depth increased by 5" from 35-40" while only recording 3" of new snow. The 6" on my board fits better with the depth increase, lol. Daily Hydrometeorological Data National Weather Service Burlington VT 511 PM EST THU DEC 15 2016 Station Precip Temperature Present Snow 24 Hrs Max Min Cur Weather New Total SWE ...Vermont... Mount Mansfield 0.17 12 -6 -5 Light snow 3.0 40 * Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Scott, is 85mph achievable? I don't think so. Winds aloft don't support it. Seems like 60..maybe 70 I suppose if they mixed absurdly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 GFS and NAM both have winds at 700mb at around 70-80 knots over SNE at some point tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't think so. Winds aloft don't support it. Seems like 60..maybe 70 I suppose if they mixed absurdly. Exactly what I told him on FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS and NAM both have winds at 700mb at around 70-80 knots over SNE at some point tonight You have to take into account friction so you want to chop those values down by a good 20-30 knots or so. If you wanted 85 mph winds you probably would want 95-100 knots at 700mb (assuming you were mixing to 700mb). Like I said though...the NAM tends to overdo mixing heights a bit so it's still uncertain we actually mix to near 700mb. Also, the NAM has the 700mb level a bit lower than the GFS I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 75-80 knot winds at 700mb over NYS, near Watertown, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Ok yeah thanks Wiz, and Ray you too, I value your opinions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Even our flatlander posters are doing ok. If we group MPM in NNE due to his climo (although he is elevated)-when was the last time you saw him happy with his wx or qpf? After last year everyone's expectations have been re-arranged to be similar to if we lived on the Cape. Any snow at all makes us all very happy, lol. Think of it this way, 5 of the last 6 winters have either been near or below normal. Anything even close to running above normal snow to date feels like a HUGE win. When I finally breached the warning level earlier this winter for the first time since December 2014, it felt like a HECS. You guys joke about the 1980s but in a sense that's what we've been living in. The Mansfield COOP had a 5-year stretch that hadn't been seen since the 1980s. Anything to break out of that rut feels great. Even the 8-9" in my yard right now matches anything I had last winter. Looks like we relax going forward but the momentum has been very good...everything likes to produce so we can hope that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Well, time to leave the city and battle the trip. What will be worse leaving at 6:30--the traffic or the wind gusts in northern ORH county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 We had a few gusts this evening in the 50 mph range for sure in BTV. It resulted in a bit of a ground blizzard at times with passing snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: After last year everyone's expectations have been re-arranged to be similar to if we lived on the Cape. Any snow at all makes us all very happy, lol. Think of it this way, 5 of the last 6 winters have either been near or below normal. Anything even close to running above normal snow to date feels like a HUGE win. When I finally breached the warning level earlier this winter for the first time since December 2014, it felt like a HECS. You guys joke about the 1980s but in a sense that's what we've been living in. The Mansfield COOP had a 5-year stretch that hadn't been seen since the 1980s. Anything to break out of that rut feels great. Even the 8-9" in my yard right now matches anything I had last winter. Looks like we relax going forward but the momentum has been very good...everything likes to produce so we can hope that continues. We haven't had the snow like you, but it does not feeling recent Decembers. A couple more advisory events and shoot...we are normal. Even down here is feels more like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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