Dec 15-18 Arctic Front/Snow Thump/Meltdown to the Border

[ORH_wxman]

3km nam looks too weenie-ish on that snowfall algorithm. I'd bet the under.

[ajisai]

1 hour ago, sbos_wx said:

 

Real question... does the conductor just get out and move the branches? Lol. For once I'm happy I use the b line.

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Just a few stray flakes so far at AUG, plus some blowing around of older snow.  Not much upstream either, at least not yet. 

wow, that's rare ...  sometimes in OCT, tho rarely ...  but NOV - APR or maybe MAY ...  never AUG.  that's insane!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4km NAM clearly shows the coastal front enhancement down in SE Mass.... drops close to half a foot in the West Side

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

4km NAM clearly shows the coastal front enhancement down in SE Mass.... drops close to half a foot in the West Side

Even the 12km NAM shows it to a lesser extent...has a little bullseye of precip W and NW of PYM.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even the 12km NAM shows it to a lesser extent...has a little bullseye of precip W and NW of PYM.

Yup.... if that plays out.... could be some surprises down here 

[CoastalWx]

Let's get that low to track over Diane's fanny. Or better yet CC. .  Asking too much though perhaps. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

Where exactly is the arctic front located right now?

[Damage In Tolland]

Doody says we rip

) Damaging Wind Gusts:

We have already seen westerly wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph across the
region this afternoon, resulting in isolated reports of wind
damage.  We may see these wind gusts briefly drop off a bit out
ahead of the arctic cold front.  However, this will be short-lived
as model soundings continue to indicate excellent mixing behind the
arctic cold front up through 700 mb.  The soundings reveal the risk
for Hurricane force wind gusts, but given that the strongest winds
are located at 10K feet expect some of that to be reduced by
friction.  Nonetheless, still expect 50 to 60 mph wind gusts with a
few locales across the higher terrain/Cape/Islands near 65 mph. This
will result in pockets of wind damage and scattered power outages.
The concern for power outages is heightened given the bitterly cold
wind chills.  High Wind Warning continues for the entire region.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Let's get that low to track over Diane's fanny. Or better yet CC. .  Asking too much though perhaps. 

 

It could be like 50F over Marshfield/Norwell while it's 30F over Jerry's house sometime late afternoon on Saturday.

[Damage In Tolland]

Isn't the 3km NAM better than the 4KM?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Isn't the 3km NAM better than the 4KM?

They both can weenie out on precip at times...they are decent for mesoscale stuff like the meso low we are discussing though. But for now, I'd take the snow totals with a grain of salt. We'll see how the RGEM starts to look in the next few cycles.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

They both can weenie out on precip at times...they are decent for mesoscale stuff like the meso low we are discussing though. But for now, I'd take the snow totals with a grain of salt. We'll see how the RGEM starts to look in the next few cycles.

I saw a Euro wxbell snow map that showed like 9-10 In NW CT into Berks and 7-8 DXR to HFD to here to ORH ..lol

[ORH_wxman]

18z RGEM has the meso low over BID at 48 hours (18z Sat)...still on the edge of its range but that would be sufficient to lock in cold pretty good over the interior. It is also slower with the mid-level warming...it still has it snowing at 18z along and north of the pike.

[512high]

Well my wife who works for the city, overheard, school will have a 2 hour delay Friday.....buses? kids waiting at bus stops? I'm almost 54 I don't ever remember having delays because of cold, however, that was a long time ago!  Temp 15F/wind chill 7F, wind 12mph, last gust 23mph, weather station off ground only 15feet

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I saw a Euro wxbell snow map that showed like 9-10 In NW CT into Berks and 7-8 DXR to HFD to here to ORH ..lol

Looking at the Euro, we'd need at least 15 to 1 ratios to get that to verify. Not impossible, but I'd be doubtful. There is bust potential on the higher side if we really go to town for 3 or 4 hours Saturday morning....but there isn't good agreement yet on that. Some guidance shows the snow as being light to moderate rather than moderate to heavy.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

It could be like 50F over Marshfield/Norwell while it's 30F over Jerry's house sometime late afternoon on Saturday.

Well maybe some interesting obs around here in the aftn across ern/SE ma. Hopefully I'm not 50, but it may be close. I'll ride the BTV WRF to the promised land of Tucksylvania.

[Ginx snewx]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Upon close inspection..it actually does stay close to 32..until mix out. Here's hour 48

 

yea the second surge of warmth with the rain is the melter

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

yea the second surge of warmth with the rain is the melter

We'll see how things trend

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

18 minutes ago, 512high said:

Well my wife who works for the city, overheard, school will have a 2 hour delay Friday.....buses? kids waiting at bus stops? I'm almost 54 I don't ever remember having delays because of cold, however, that was a long time ago!  Temp 15F/wind chill 7F, wind 12mph, last gust 23mph, weather station off ground only 15feet

When I was in elementary school there was a cancellation due to cold/wind chill. I'm 23 now, so it would have been early 2000s. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

Next to nothing for wind right now.

[weathafella]

GFS-tucky

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Next to nothing for wind right now.

She coming hard. 

Soon as those squalls move thru between 8-10. Roar 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

GFS-tucky

Yeah that's kind of telling...when even a terrible model at handling BL conditions like the GFS is starting to show it.

[CT Valley Snowman]

13 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Next to nothing for wind right now.

we don't live in a very good place for high winds I'm sure they will pick up again later but I'm not holding my breath on anything too crazy.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that's kind of telling...when even a terrible model at handling BL conditions like the GFS is starting to show it.

now we need to see if we can work on Sunday staying in the 40's pre front

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

now we need to see if we can work on Sunday staying in the 40's pre front

Doubtful...but if the >45F stuff can be limited to 6 hours or less, then many should escape with cover intact....big IF though. Gonna want some of the higher end snow totals too. The 18z GFS run is kind of on the lighter side with mostly 3-4 inch amounts it looks like.

[powderfreak]

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looking at the Euro, we'd need at least 15 to 1 ratios to get that to verify. Not impossible, but I'd be doubtful. There is bust potential on the higher side if we really go to town for 3 or 4 hours Saturday morning....but there isn't good agreement yet on that. Some guidance shows the snow as being light to moderate rather than moderate to heavy.

Funny, it just so happens WxBell produces a 15:1 ratio Euro snowfall map, lol.

[powderfreak]

Wasn't paying attention but let the dog out and she came back in with snow all over her.  Looks like its snowing nicely out there again with a few tenths down of fluff in this burst.

It just wants to snow at this point.

[weathafella]

Winter of the NNE payback.  Kind of nice to see.