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Dec 15-18 Arctic Front/Snow Thump/Meltdown to the Border

HoarfrostHubb

By HoarfrostHubb,
in New England

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

BOXy BOX

However a powerful
arctic front barrels through the region Thu evening and overnight
with dangerously temperatures...wind chills and the potential for
damaging winds Thursday night into Fri morning. A wintry mix
early Saturday transitions to rain for the remainder of the
weekend. Turning dry and more seasonable early next week.

 

Model discussion as it pertains to this wild swing of temps

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

We HWW!

  
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATION...CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 PM THURSDAY AND
  4 AM FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...WEAKENED TREES OR LARGE LIMBS MAY BE DOWNED BY HIGH
  WINDS IN ADDITION TO POWER LINES. DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT IN
  OPEN AREAS AND ON BRIDGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. DUE TO
THE EXTREME COLD ALSO EXPECTED...MAKE SURE ALTERNATIVE HEATING
SOURCES ARE IN A SAFE AND WELL VENTILATED AREA IN ORDER TO PREVENT
CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING.
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

what's funny about the cold is that the very core of the coldest part of it times just exquisitely perfect to maximize it's deepest potential... right in that 2 am to 7 am period on Friday morning. Even though the wind is blowing,iIf the core of the thing passed 2 pm to 7 pm - for example - the impact might be mitigated some, diabatically. 

but diabolical in its design is that it gets the most minimum to dress up relative to the maximum when warm fropa happens Sunday...  -1 to 55 at PVD maybe.  wow. doesn't just want to tap you on the shoulder and tell you it's f you over if you want winter, it's getting ur attention with a baseball bat to the head

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

NAM is def the more ideal scenario for trying to preserve snowpack that falls on Saturday morning...it has that little meso low develop and track over SE MA....even get a bit of a cold tuck just behind it. We will have to watch for that type of possibility...because if we do happen to get a little meso low at the sfc develop...the airmass to start this system is absolutely frigid...so it could temporarily help stop any eroding of it. From a met standpoint, it's not that strange to see this when you have a frigid arctic airmass up against much warmer air to the south...the natural tendency is to have low pressure forum near that baroclinic zone...so we shall see.

 

There's not much that can halt the mid-levels though in this setup.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is def the more ideal scenario for trying to preserve snowpack that falls on Saturday morning...it has that little meso low develop and track over SE MA....even get a bit of a cold tuck just behind it. We will have to watch for that type of possibility...because if we do happen to get a little meso low at the sfc develop...the airmass to start this system is absolutely frigid...so it could temporarily help stop any eroding of it. From a met standpoint, it's not that strange to see this when you have a frigid arctic airmass up against much warmer air to the south...the natural tendency is to have low pressure forum near that baroclinic zone...so we shall see.

 

There's not much that can halt the mid-levels though in this setup.

Yeah our hope to preserve pack and maybe a white Xmas is that happening. No doubt this flips to non snow well into NNE..but if we can keep it in mid-upper 30's for a few hours rather than 57/56..we have some hope.

Last event NAM furnaced and it was more or less correct..let's hope it's sniffing this out too

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well pretty snowy morning in most areas Saturday anyways. Should be going nicely when most get up. 

Thump looks pretty impressive...better than the last one. It's been trending better on guidance. So at the very least, it should be a pretty wintry morning with decent snowfall rates. Take Bryce sledding around 11am...you should have 3" by then. :lol:

 

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah our hope to preserve pack and maybe a white Xmas is that happening. No doubt this flips to non snow well into NNE..but if we can keep it in mid-upper 30's for a few hours rather than 57/56..we have some hope.

Last event NAM furnaced and it was more or less correct..let's hope it's sniffing this out too

Yeah the NAM would eventually spike us into the 50s...I don't think we're avoiding it...but it might be pretty brief on that scenario. Maybe just a couple hours or something before FROPA...rotting in the 30s won't do a lot of damage to the pack. Some of the sfc warming might be too aggressive even on the NAM...temps are gonna be really cold to start. If we get a meso low, its not gonna go from like 18F to 32F that quickly...but that meso-low is key...it will warm much faster if we're getting E or ESE winds, even if they are light, they will still steadily warm the BL....meso low turns the flow NNE for several hours which completely halts the sfc warming and even reverses it in parts of E MA with a cold tuck.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Thump looks pretty impressive...better than the last one. It's been trending better on guidance. So at the very least, it should be a pretty wintry morning with decent snowfall rates. Take Bryce sledding around 11am...you should have 3" by then. :lol:

 

Yeah the NAM would eventually spike us into the 50s...I don't think we're avoiding it...but it might be pretty brief on that scenario. Maybe just a couple hours or something before FROPA...rotting in the 30s won't do a lot of damage to the pack. Some of the sfc warming might be too aggressive even on the NAM...temps are gonna be really cold to start. If we get a meso low, its not gonna go from like 18F to 32F that quickly...but that meso-low is key...it will warm much faster if we're getting E or ESE winds, even if they are light, they will still steadily warm the BL....meso low turns the flow NNE for several hours which completely halts the sfc warming and even reverses it in parts of E MA with a cold tuck.

Kevin doesn't do too well in tucks. :(

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin doesn't do too well in tucks. :(

Nope...Ray would be getting freezing drizzle at 28F while he is 35F and dripping....lol.

 

Cold tucks are really cool though, so hopefully we see one. It will also mean there's a meso low, so that would probably help even further inland anyway.

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nope...Ray would be getting freezing drizzle at 28F while he is 35F and dripping....lol.

 

Cold tucks are really cool though, so hopefully we see one. It will also mean there's a meso low, so that would probably help even further inland anyway.

 

When I was younger, I always wondered why the forecast busted with those. The snow to rain,  turned into snow to FZDZ  and the temp would stay in the 20s. I also noticed the north wind...but of course never understood what happened. They are pretty cool and cause havoc even to this day. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Box Gone Wild BGW 

Arctic short wave will be accompanied by a trop fold with tropopause
lowering down to 700 mb per much of the 12z guid. In addition model
soundings indicate mixing to the tropopause/700 mb Thu ngt as arctic
airmass yields very steep low level lapse rates. Model soundings
suggest the potential for wind gusts up to 70kt/80mph! While this
potential may be isolated...high probability of widespread 50+ kt.
Thus High Wind Watch issued for all of CT/RI and MA. Strongest winds
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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
Posted

GYX going with windchill watch

Quote 

333 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

* HAZARD TYPES...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

* WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 27 BELOW DUE TO TEMPERATURES 5 BELOW TO
  8 ABOVE ZERO...AND WINDS NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...5 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO.THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
  FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Remember that the Nam was the first model to sniff out the Monday system. The track wasn't perfect but it had the right idea before most of the other models so there's that to stick in the hat. It could be one of the rare moments where it actually is a somewhat useful model. Just sayin'

It can do well with low level CAD stuff, which is why I'm noting it when it forms that meso low....synoptically in the upper levels I try to ignore it.

 

We'll have a better idea by tomorrow night, but the sfc depiction isn't something I would think is out to lunch. Euro tries to hint at the same thing but is just not quite as bullish on the secondary sfc reflection...but it's there.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SR Airglow said:

Yeah I noticed that as well - it decreased the max totals and took out warning criteria for NWCT/Berks but expanded the advisory snows SE of where the 12z run had them.

It's because the CAD on the 18z GFS is better in SE areas....I assume that both of you are looking at snow maps...so I bet the algorithm gave better snow output because the sfc was colder in SE areas.

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