Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

[WinterWxLuvr]

Could Sunday work? Yes. Probability? Has to be less than a 10% chance.

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Sure... 1mm of snow through 48 hrs lol

Let's be clear, I'm not suggesting its a lot. I'm just desperate. What is really interesting about it is the temps at 850. Lot colder then the NAM.. But I'm admittedly grasping. 

[yoda]

23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z NAM has some frozen with the back end wave. The threat and thread lives!

Hmmm.... interersting

ETA: because I am a glutton for weather punishment, I checked the sounding at hr 84 at DCA... its isothermal, but its a snow sounding... and I know I am bad to use it, but composite radar on 84 hr NAM says its heavy snow

[Interstate]

No not get sucked in what the NAM is telling you for Late Sunday into Monday.  You will only get your feelings hurt.

[mappy]

[yoda]

[mappy]

I'm hugging the new Para 12km NAM

[psuhoffman]

We do salvage jobs in here very well. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We do salvage jobs in here very well. 

Hug the NAM with me? Maybe we can will it to happen.  

[Interstate]

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

I'm hugging the new Para 12km NAM

I am wondering if it is just Dic**** with us. HA HA HA

[NorthArlington101]

12Z RGEM isn't bad. All this is 100% before a flip to ice.

 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hug the NAM with me? Maybe we can will it to happen.  

Sure why not. All the fretting of the last 24 hours then watch us luck our way into a few inches front and back end. 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sure why not. All the fretting of the last 24 hours then watch us luck our way into a few inches front and back end. 

There ya go!

... seriously though, if I'm annoying people, sorry. I just have a hard time letting lack of snow ruin my day/life. I am trying to add levity to a piss poor wintry scenario. 

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hug the NAM with me? Maybe we can will it to happen.  

Of course. Snow just for your house. That being said, I'll hug what you're hugging! You might consider making a bourbon run soon though. ;-)

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Of course. Snow just for your house. That being said, I'll hug what you're hugging! You might consider making a bourbon run soon though. ;-)

come northwest! all are welcome. i've got plenty of yard space. ill put some of you to work to help me with christmas wrapping. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12Z RGEM isn't bad. All this is 100% before a flip to ice.

 

This is a good model.

Ok, I'm in. Let's do this sh*t.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Sure why not. All the fretting of the last 24 hours then watch us luck our way into a few inches front and back end. 

Color me stunned if we do that one.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'll say this.  The models showing next to nothing had better nail their forecast position of the cold air.  Be off (to the east/northeast) by 50 miles and it's a different story.

[yoda]

12z RGEM is 3mm of snow than 3mm of sleet or 3mm of freezing rain through 12z SAT for DC

[H2O]

I think the NAM is onto something here folks.  We should give it some creedence

[NorthArlington101]

12z RGEM is 3mm of snow than 3mm of sleet or 3mm of freezing rain through 12z SAT for DC

There we go. Little better then that 1mm on the 6Z run. I'm not good enough at reading the models to see why it hangs into the cold better then the NAM, but whatever it's doing we need to happen.

[NorthArlington101]

12z RGEM is 3mm of snow than 3mm of sleet or 3mm of freezing rain through 12z SAT for DC

There we go. Little better then that 1mm on the 6Z run. I'm not good enough at reading the models to see why it hangs into the cold better then the NAM, but whatever it's doing we need to happen.

[mappy]

I need a black/white map of those mm 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

There ya go!

... seriously though, if I'm annoying people, sorry. I just have a hard time letting lack of snow ruin my day/life. I am trying to add levity to a piss poor wintry scenario. 

I think I'm switching to the JB method. Find the model with the most snow then add 50% and run with it. 

[mappy]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I think I'm switching to the JB method. Find the model with the most snow then add 50% and run with it. 

YES! atta boy. let the inner weenie out (not that weenie, RR)

[yoda]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I need a black/white map of those mm 

And no, its making me laugh this morning with the memes and pics

[Amped]

Pivotal weather has way less snow than tropical tidbits.  12z GFS is looks like crap.

[ravensrule]

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

YES! atta boy. let the inner weenie out (not that weenie, RR)

 . Did you ring me. I don't want to let it out that far anyway.

[mappy]

It's like the bat signal goes off whenever something crude is posted. 

[yoda]

I'm hugging the 12z 84 hr NAM for backend snows