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Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

North Balti Zen

By North Balti Zen,
in Mid Atlantic

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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The bleeding hasn't stopped with the 06Z GFS. The snowfall maps on weatherbell have once again decreased from its previous run, showing a general 1-2 inch fall. But a quick look at the temp profiles suggest most, if not all, of that would be sleet and or freezing rain. Even the precip type algorithms on weatherbell disagree with the snowfall map with showing only sleet or freezing rain during that period. We may reached the point where we have to hope for a little back-end snow if we want to see a little white falling from the sky. 

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CAPE

CAPE

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

The bleeding hasn't stopped with the 06Z GFS. The snowfall maps on weatherbell have once again decreased from its previous run, showing a general 1-2 inch fall. But a quick look at the temp profiles suggest most, if not all, of that would be sleet and or freezing rain. Even the precip type algorithms on weatherbell disagree with the snowfall map with showing only sleet or freezing rain during that period. We may reached the point where we have to hope for a little back-end snow if we want to see a little white falling from the sky. 

The front end thump potential is fading fast. Last night's flizzard was a fail. We can hope for something on the back-end, but given model trends it looks like that will complete the trifecta of fail for this thread. Well at least we got the cold and dry part.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

The bleeding hasn't stopped with the 06Z GFS. The snowfall maps on weatherbell have once again decreased from its previous run, showing a general 1-2 inch fall. But a quick look at the temp profiles suggest most, if not all, of that would be sleet and or freezing rain. Even the precip type algorithms on weatherbell disagree with the snowfall map with showing only sleet or freezing rain during that period. We may reached the point where we have to hope for a little back-end snow if we want to see a little white falling from the sky. 

I've pretty much thrown in the towel on this. The cold boundary has ended up north of model guidance from a week out all month. At this point I don't see much reason for things to shift back in our favor. Guidance should see he cold well by now. Hopefully I'm wrong and 12 shifts south 100 miles. I didn't even bother to look at 6z. 

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dallen7908

dallen7908

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For College Park area, Euro shows three chances at frozen precipitation during the next 5 days:

Saturday: ~1" of snow (sleet mixing in?)  transitioning to sleet/freezing rain around 6 AM (~0.05") followed by a half-inch or so of plain rain  --ending Saturday evening

Sunday: Intermittent rain with temperatures falling from 60s to 30s possibly (but not likely) ending as a flurry. ~2/3 of an inch of rain

Tuesday morning: Cold Rain possibly beginning as freezing rain.  ~0.1" total. 

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87storms

87storms

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This forum is showing its rust.  We typically suck at December snow, downsloping, and storms to our North.  We're outstanding at early January to mid Feb, overrunning and storms sliding to our South and redeveloping off the coast...or something like that.

That said, we're not that bad at finding snow from Arctic airmasses so maybe we find a way tomorrow night/Sat.

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

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I'm not out as long as there is a chance that some flakes fall from the sky before the sleet/rain. 6Z NAM certainly allows us to hold onto that possibility, and it would give us a decent icing afterwards.

 

I need some wintery precip in my life, and considering that next week seems to be out, consider me invested.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Next time a threat like this appears don't expect anything unless the modeled 850 line starts in Orlando at d5. 

The estimation of the southward extent of the Arctic air was again greatly exaggerated. In the end with the nao and Pna as hostile as they are it shouldn't shock us that the cold can't really make much penetration south or hold. Especially this time of year with  warm coastal waters nearby. The cold has hit the Midwest and plains but here it's been muted. Results could be better in January/February 

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

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36 minutes ago, H2O said:

stand in a shady area on top of an open field for 15 min and report back.

Yeah, definitely cold, I guess I was inartfully saying observing that the push of cold air doesn't seem to match up with what was originally advertised. At least my point and click isn't for lows around 5 tonight, for instance, and we are not doing highs in the teens. Pretty sure a few runs of for this day showed that kind of cold, is my memory.

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