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Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

North Balti Zen

By North Balti Zen,
in Mid Atlantic

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

So, new here and possibly seeing snow for my first time in many years tonight. Been waiting for this. Question: Is this how this stuff works in this area? No models show anything for what seems like forever, and then within 24 hours with little notice I get a significant weather advisory on my phone?

Hmmm?

I'm guessing your talking about the potential dusting tonight. Honestly, I cannot figure out why on earth we were given this "Special Advisory", unless its because its the first season of the snow and its perhaps slightly unexpected, so I guess it could effect the late-late night commute?

Usually things around here are modeled well enough that we know something is coming, however large storms can often be reduced to nothing, especially close to I-95, literally the day of the event. You will get advisories/warnings/and I guess even these "special advisories" in advance though. 

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Hmmm?

I'm guessing your talking about the potential dusting tonight. Honestly, I cannot figure out why on earth we were given this "Special Advisory", unless its because its the first season of the snow and its perhaps slightly unexpected, so I guess it could effect the late-late night commute?

Usually things around here are modeled well enough that we know something is coming, however large storms can often be reduced to nothing, especially close to I-95, literally the day of the event. You will get advisories/warnings/and I guess even these "special advisories" in advance though. 

 

 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Hmmm?

I'm guessing your talking about the potential dusting tonight. Honestly, I cannot figure out why on earth we were given this "Special Advisory", unless its because its the first season of the snow and its perhaps slightly unexpected, so I guess it could effect the late-late night commute?

Usually things around here are modeled well enough that we know something is coming, however large storms can often be reduced to nothing, especially close to I-95, literally the day of the event. You will get advisories/warnings/and I guess even these "special advisories" in advance though. 

I am confused... the special weather statement was issued because temps will be around freezing tonight and the snow may cause some slick spots overnight...

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, yoda said:

I am confused... the special weather statement was issued because temps will be around freezing tonight and the snow may cause some slick spots overnight...

Yeah, I think I was trying to over-complicate things. I was trying (but failing) to answer novasky's question about weather advisories coming out of nowhere, which the answer to is that they usually don't, we are usually given plenty of warning. I'm not trying to debate the validity of tonight's special weather statement, sorry about that.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Hmmm?

I'm guessing your talking about the potential dusting tonight. Honestly, I cannot figure out why on earth we were given this "Special Advisory", unless its because its the first season of the snow and its perhaps slightly unexpected, so I guess it could effect the late-late night commute?

Usually things around here are modeled well enough that we know something is coming, however large storms can often be reduced to nothing, especially close to I-95, literally the day of the event. You will get advisories/warnings/and I guess even these "special advisories" in advance though. 

It's called a Special Weather Statement (SPS) and it's exactly for this type of thing. It's not a winter weather advisory or anything that would activate weather radios. It's just a weather statement. 

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smokeybandit

smokeybandit

Posted
Posted

Good time to give the southerner

42 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So, new here and possibly seeing snow for my first time in many years tonight. Been waiting for this. Question: Is this how this stuff works in this area? No models show anything for what seems like forever, and then within 24 hours with little notice I get a significant weather advisory on my phone?

Here's a primer on the various winter weather notifications:

 

http://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So, new here and possibly seeing snow for my first time in many years tonight. Been waiting for this. Question: Is this how this stuff works in this area? No models show anything for what seems like forever, and then within 24 hours with little notice I get a significant weather advisory on my phone?

Welcome to the boards!  Most people here don't like to give direct answers.  Sometimes such events can sneak up on us last minute, typically along fast moving fronts or squalls that generate from the Great Lakes then make a b-line for the Ocean.  Hopefully you'll get to experience those here in the not so distant future! 

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another tick or 2 north and we escape the threat unharmed

You know it!

eta: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runTime=2016121419&plotName=1ref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3

eta eta:Experiential hrrrx is a little better. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016121311&plotName=1ref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

Another tick or 2 north and we escape the threat unharmed

This will end up a textbook(and extreme) example of cold/dry, warm/wet. When the pattern is hostile, it is very difficult to get frozen in this region. It almost always comes down to near perfect timing.

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ErinInTheSky

ErinInTheSky

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Welcome to the boards!  Most people here don't like to give direct answers.  Sometimes such events can sneak up on us last minute, typically along fast moving fronts or squalls that generate from the Great Lakes then make a b-line for the Ocean.  Hopefully you'll get to experience those here in the not so distant future! 

Here's to hoping we get anything at all tonight. I'm flying out on thursday to pick up my son and bring him here :) so I'll miss this weekend.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

Very long and detailed AFD from Mount Holly this afternoon. Posted some highlights below, which gives their take on late weekend and into next week, beyond the Friday-Sat event. Posted it here as this thread could continue if additional short term threats materialize. 

Teleconnections such as the EPO and WPO
will allow for a few shots of very cold air to move southward into
the country from Canada as well. In between these features, there
will be an extremely active storm track and a surface frontal
boundary for the weekend and early next week. Temperature extremes
will potentially vary as much as 50 degrees on either side of the
boundary leading to more uncertainty than usual.

Sunday and Sunday night: Another low pressure system will develop
along the frontal boundary as additional mid-level energy moves
northeast from the southern Plains. A slight majority of ensemble
members show a progressive frontal passage, which has been the
trend on most of the operational models as well. However a group
of ensemble members slow the front with an additional area of low
pressure riding northeast along it. That would result in
precipitation through Sunday night with the highest amounts south.
Regardless, high temperatures will be early in the day with
falling temperatures during the day. Temperatures are likely to
quickly spike into the 40`s and 50`s but that depends on how
entrenched into the warm sector we are. The cold air behind the
front will be faster to move in just above surface than further
up in the atmosphere. If precipitation continues into Sunday
afternoon and evening a change to sleet would occur based on the
expected depth of the cold air and then change to snow from
northwest to southeast.

Monday through Wednesday: Quite a bit of ensemble spread depending
on where the front which moves through Sunday stalls. Some members
develop additional areas of low pressure with prospects for more
wintry precipitation. This included the 12Z/14 operational ECMWF.
Other models and ensemble members allow a stronger high pressure
system to move into the region with the front far enough offshore
to keep us dry. Stuck close to the ensemble blend on temperatures
in this timeframe. Pops will be highest in southern portions of
the region with colder mid-levels to result in mainly or all snow.
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