Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Compared to 6z it's a slight north shift of the best lift/precip

hmm....well compared to 6z, it looks like the snow spread south a bit

 

blob:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/a534a7e2-ebde-4d2b-a215-d783b94b4699

[yoda]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

hmm....well compared to 6z, it looks like the snow spread south a bit

 

blob:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/a534a7e2-ebde-4d2b-a215-d783b94b4699

TT has DC around 2" per 12z GFS for Fri night into Sat morning

[yoda]

Changing back to tonight for a second:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1053 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2016

DCZ001-MDZ006-011-013-014-504-506>508-VAZ053-054-142200-
District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Including the cities of...Washington...Reisterstown...
Cockeysville...Baltimore...Bowie...Suitland-Silver Hill...
Clinton...College Park...Greenbelt...Laurel...Camp Springs...
Glen Burnie...Annapolis...Severn...South Gate...Severna Park...
Arnold...Odenton...Bethesda...Rockville...Gaithersburg...
Silver Spring...Columbia...Ellicott City...Jarrettsville...
Aberdeen...Reston...Herndon...Annandale...Centreville...
Chantilly...Mclean...Franconia...Arlington...Alexandria
1053 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2016

...POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE TONIGHT...

Snow showers are possible late this evening into the overnight
across the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas. Snow may
coat the ground in some locations...and with temperatures near
freezing this may cause slippery conditions. The best chance for
snow will be between 10 PM and 2 AM late this evening into the
overnight.

[Eskimo Joe]

Sneaky little events like this are fun.

[Ji]

as expected...we lost about 5-6 inches of snow from 6z with regards to Sunday night. We are going to strike out on every single possibilitty this month

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

as expected...we lost about 5-6 inches of snow from 6z with regards to Sunday night. We are going to strike out on every single possibilitty this month

The ensembles were better... lets see what they say first

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

The ensembles were better... lets see what they say first

Operational will flip flop with each run. Relatively speaking, this winter, even more so than past ones, precise forecasts less than 24 hours out are not to be expected from the models.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Sub Regions of Regions??? LOL

I hope that was a joke. It's getting kind of rediculous. No matter how you zone it most storms won't effect a whole region equally. And my area is a local Max even compared to places to my north. For instance if I was in the central pa forum they might get mad that while they get as much snow overall as me I usually do way better in major coastal storms. I was disapointed but didn't throw a fit when  our southern zones got 8-10" last feb when I got less then an inch. It just happens. If we over zone we end up with 3 people talking to themselves in each zone. 

[Bob Chill]

^ you're always welcome to visit us too PSU!

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Speaking of low expectations, look at this year's 12/17 forecast as a vast improvement on last year.  DCA had a max/min of 58/38 and a dreary 0.42" of rain on that date last December.  Then we all know how the following week after that went.

Kinda so done with the comparison to last year as justification for optimism. That's like comparing every world leader to Hitler to say their all doing a bang up job. 

[yoda]

12z GGEM getting very minor QPF into the region 00z SAT... oh come on 72 please oh please

[Sparky]

I pumped up my tires first thing this morning to 39 psi in anticipation of this icy carnage.

[yoda]

12z GGEM is a nightmare... snow to heavy ice to light rain/drizzle

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GGEM is a nightmare... snow to heavy ice

Dream on, Yoda.

[psuhoffman]

59 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The problem now is the cold air is probably well modeled at this point. The only upside surprise chance I see is a faster onset. WAA can move in quicker than modeled and adjustments there are certainly in the realm. There is overwhelming data now that the column is shot by 12z for snow except maybe the far NE. 

Even though WAA can start faster than modeled it's also prone to flip faster too so I'm not sure there is much upside to what we are seeing at this point in the snow dept. 

Ice in the NW zones is probably the biggest threat. I never do well with ice so I don't really care much in that dept. 

We need a south shift. If the deeper cold boundary is to our north the best lift will be also so even if a front running wave came across 6 hours early (possible) it would go north of us mostly by last nights trends. We just need things the whole boundary to shift 50-100 miles south. That's not all that crazy we have seen shifts that big from 60/72 hours before. Happened in March 2014 when central pa was expecting a big snow 72 hours out and it ended up being central va bullseye. I wouldn't bet on it but it happens. Right now getting the bleeding to stop is most important then hope for better trends towards game time. 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Dream on, Yoda.

What?  Its 2-3" and then ice

[mappy]

Didn't get a chance to look, at my kids school now for a Christmas show. How'd the gfs do?


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[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, yoda said:

The ensembles were better... lets see what they say first

We're getting to the range where you want some op support as well. Still at the edge of where ensembles outweigh the op but it's not 10 days out so simply living by "the ensembles have it" is dangerous. 

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

What?  Its 2-3" and then ice

I mean I doubt you get even that much. Hence the dream on. lol

[high risk]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GGEM is a nightmare... snow to heavy ice to light rain/drizzle

      The GGEM is not the greatest model, but here it does show how we could hold on a major mess for a lot longer.   Its 10m winds on Saturday morning are a lot weaker than those in the GFS/NAM.    If the surface flow is weak, then we'll have a hard time scouring out the very cold air mass.   if the 10-15 kt southerlies shown by the NAM/GFS verify, we'll quickly go above freezing along the I-95 corridor.

 

[mitchnick]

GEM has over .5" qpf falling imby and still has me under a snow echo at 12Z on Sat.

Me huggy GEM

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

^ you're always welcome to visit us too PSU!

So what zone would I be in?  I have even less in common climo wise with the central PA and lakes zone, definitely not Philly/NYC, and then I am left with the 12 people who live in the Parrs Ridge MD area and the southern PA Piedmont highlands.  Keep zoning and we don't have enough people in the zone for a good conversation.  It's already crickets in half the forums.  It can go days without a single post in the central PA forum sometimes. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

I know this is sort off topic, but can someone tell me what the kuchera ratio is?


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[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

GEM has over .5" qpf falling imby and still has me under a snow echo at 12Z on Sat.

Me huggy GEM

be careful, go check the 850 temps at 12z before looking at the precip type map, their algorithm is wrong.  I think it shows the precip type from the beginning of the 6 hour period or for a "majority" of the period at the END of the period giving a false impression.  Yesterday it showed snow in DC when the 850 0 line was in PA

[Sparky]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So what zone would I be in?  I have even less in common climo wise with the central PA and lakes zone, definitely not Philly/NYC, and then I am left with the 12 people who live in the Parrs Ridge MD area and the southern PA Piedmont highlands.  Keep zoning and we don't have enough people in the zone for a good conversation.  It's already crickets in half the forums.  It can go days without a single post in the central PA forum sometimes. 

I'm sure they are not being serious.

[mappy]

So what zone would I be in?  I have even less in common climo wise with the central PA and lakes zone, definitely not Philly/NYC, and then I am left with the 12 people who live in the Parrs Ridge MD area and the southern PA Piedmont highlands.  Keep zoning and we don't have enough people in the zone for a good conversation.  It's already crickets in half the forums.  It can go days without a single post in the central PA forum sometimes. 

He's not serious. Besides, we'd form a mutiny and storm the D.C. area with deck pics and snow stories while they are crying in their 33/rain


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[birdsofprey02]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So what zone would I be in?  I have even less in common climo wise with the central PA and lakes zone, definitely not Philly/NYC, and then I am left with the 12 people who live in the Parrs Ridge MD area and the southern PA Piedmont highlands.  Keep zoning and we don't have enough people in the zone for a good conversation.  It's already crickets in half the forums.  It can go days without a single post in the central PA forum sometimes. 

Stay here.

I rarely post unless its an observation during a storm but trust me, the silent majority enjoys reading your posts and Bob's and the rest of the intellect, helps me get through the winter blues. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

I know this is sort off topic, but can someone tell me what the kuchera ratio is?


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in a nutshell it uses temperatures it key height levels to estimate snowfall ratios.  The snow growth region is one of the key determining factors. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

be careful, go check the 850 temps at 12z before looking at the precip type map, their algorithm is wrong.  I think it shows the precip type from the beginning of the 6 hour period or for a "majority" of the period at the END of the period giving a false impression.  Yesterday it showed snow in DC when the 850 0 line was in PA

I know. I just said I'm hugging the model. Meteorology has nothing to do with it!

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

He's not serious. Besides, we'd form a mutiny and storm the D.C. area with deck pics and snow stories while they are crying in their 33/rain


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LOL. 

Actually it is the same down this way, there are a couple posters near roanoke/Blacksburg area and one or two in Lynchburg. Oh, and one guy that shows up once in a while in snowstorms near Lexington.