Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

[PhineasC]

This joke of an event can't hold a candle to 1994. 

[BlizzardNole]

I thought we'd be above freezing by now the way the temp was marching upward, but been stuck at 30 for a while with batch of freezing rain coming through.

 

[GramaxRefugee]

The Davis seems to be stuck on 31.7f  

I didn't  get any of the sleet/snow those west-of-I-95 folks got.

Eta: car drove down our street, no problem....few minutes ago

[ThePhotoGuy]

Z005-006-507-171800-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-161217T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KLWX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-161217T1800Z/
CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
1006 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1
  INCH...ALONG WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
  MORNING... THEN CHANGE TO RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...RISING TO THE LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED DUE TO ICY ROADS AND
  WALKWAYS.

[gymengineer]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

This joke of an event can't hold a candle to 1994. 

None of the events in 1994 were crippling ice storms west of DC. We didn't lose power with those events. (The 2/11/94 sleet storm was an ice storm for southern MD.) I was more referring to high road impacts, which takes deep cold. And this event has been pretty high level with the extent of road impacts.

[Stormpc]

Too bad we didnt register any snow torals to get on the board. Gonna be shut out for December. If this was all snow I wouldn't even have registered 1 inch anyway. Pretty dry down here. Be careful folks. 30.1. 

[North Balti Zen]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This joke of an event can't hold a candle to 1994. 

More tanker explosions in 1994? This is a perfectly fine ice event for this time of year.

[mappy]

Hanging at 31, brief lull in precip but more on its way

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, RDM said:

Joe - which traffic ap is that?  Looks good. 

Up to 30 now with just freezing drizzle.  Nice coat on everything.  Precip is about finished apart from some stray showers to the west unless something back builds, but that does not appear to be happening.

It's a traffic management portal that we use in house.  It's not for public access, but it's not super secret so I can post the occasional screenshot.  

 

Sauce from my cul de sac in Reisterstown:

 

[Sparky]

Had about a half inch of snow/sleet in the wee hours now mainly freezing rain.

[dallen7908]

Drove 6 kids to 9 AM UMCP final this morning; will be interesting to hear how full the room was. Temperature has risen to just below freezing. 

[H2O]

Temp creeping slowly up. 30.3. 

[Kingstonian]

Went out to measure again at 10am and not much change since 7:30 for accretion -- right around 0.06".  Sidewalks still sheets of ice but the non-treated parking lot is much better.

Closest wxbug still at 29.  

 

[Eskimo Joe]

925mb analysis on SPC meso page shows everyone is about to go above freezing.  IMO, this was a decent event and I'm chalking this up as a win for the Canadian/NAM.  This is about as good as we can do with a setup like this...having the fresh air mass was key.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Ok, I'm ready to warm up.  Got things to do.

[psuhoffman]

The rgem isn't a joke like the ggem, it's worth taking note when it says something over and over. Definitely performed as an ice event for December. Pretty rare around here. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ok, I'm ready to warm up.  Got things to do.

Yea I'm supposed to go to NJ today for a family event. Not sure I'm going to make it. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Elkins is 56!

 

[mattie g]

Family is getting on the road from all parts of South Jersey to head down here for a Christmas shindig. Hopefully things warm up quickly and they make it down safely.

29 and clouds with the occasional spittle. Decent little icing event, especially for mid December.

[mappy]

Lot of sirens up my way this morning 

[Sparky]

 

[RichmondTarHeel]

I used to live along the blue ridge in southern VA.  This ice storm ain't nothing compared to what I've seen, but it's still enough to just tick you off.  Hoping to be above freezing in the next hour, I've got a holiday party to be at 2:00pm. 

[poolz1]

No precip and sun is trying hard to peak out of the clouds...temp shot up a degree in the past 30min.  31.3f

[high risk]

Even as we inch above freezing over the next hour or two (longer in northern MD), the ground temperatures are likely to lag the air temperatures by a couple of degrees, so widespread improvement in road conditions may still take a while.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

Even as we inch above freezing over the next hour or two (longer in northern MD), the ground temperatures are likely to lag the air temperatures by a couple of degrees, so widespread improvement in road conditions may still take a while.

Good pickup on the NAM/RGEM vs GFS/EURO camp wrt to surface winds yesterday.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Bright sun.  Thankfully, all ice already gone.  35F.

[gymengineer]

What's no-contest is the GFS vs. NAM for rising above freezing times. Pretty much every freezing rain event we can think of in the past few years has seen the NAM picking up on the surface wedge better than the GFS.

[high risk]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Good pickup on the NAM/RGEM vs GFS/EURO camp wrt to surface winds yesterday.

    thanks!    Establishing strong southerly flow in a damming event is always tricky, and it's not surprising that we often see model disagreement/struggles.   

 

 

[high risk]

6 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

What's no-contest is the GFS vs. NAM for rising above freezing times. Pretty much every freezing rain event we can think of in the past few years has seen the NAM picking up on the surface wedge better than the GFS.

        The GFS knows that the wedge is there, but its PBL scheme just isn't very good at maintaining inversions.   In the horrific Philadelphia ice event in January 2015, even at 12 hours, the NAM had Philly below freezing while the GFS had them in the mid to upper 30s.

  

[snjókoma]

Just attempted to take a walk and was surprised by how icy it still was. Absolutely no melting occurring, although temperatures are at or just below freezing. Side roads are ok, but all sidewalks and other surfaces are slick.