Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

[WVclimo]

Temp rising steadily here this evening.  Up to 24 after being 20-21 all afternoon.  Southerly winds at 13 gusting to 18.  Dews still below zero, so hopefully we can see a dip when precip initially gets in here later.

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

This cold shot was actually kinda nasty.  50 degree temps sounds pretty good.  We have plenty of time to get a snowstorm.  Season just started.

Never too soon for the rationalizations

[BristowWx]

I can't wait to see how this turns out.  It looks so bleak right now that it would be a true holiday miracle to see anything frozen fall out of the sky.  The idea that precip will blossom is mind boggling to me.

[Yeoman]

Just pull up the old composite reflectivity, drink until you're nearly blind and you'll be seeing a blizzard before long

[eurojosh]

Does anyone have a meteogram on the 0z rgem yet? Looks brief but heavy.

[bigjohndc]

26.5/ 6

[high risk]

competing nowcasting trends going on:   southerly winds are established pretty well (at least at DCA and IAD), but dew points are not coming up fast at all

[BristowWx]

GFS seems to erode the CAD quite quickly from what I can see.

[WinterWxLuvr]

42 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Just pull up the old composite reflectivity, drink until you're nearly blind and you'll be seeing a blizzard before long

What are you thinking Yeoman?  I'm thinking 3-4" of snow followed by 1/2" ice.

Sound about right?

[Yeoman]

3-4 flakes is more like it - and they are all in my house

[Ellinwood]

19 minutes ago, high risk said:

competing nowcasting trends going on:   southerly winds are established pretty well (at least at DCA and IAD), but dew points are not coming up fast at all

I mean, yeah it's a south wind, but it's got a lot of cold air to the south it has to pull up first before we get into the warmer stuff, so it's gonna take awhile for a south wind to actually mean much of anything. Dew points are still 0-15 degrees in NC! Once we DO get all that cold air out of the way, though, that south wind is going to make quick work out of the changeover.

[WinterWxLuvr]

15 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

I mean, yeah it's a south wind, but it's got a lot of cold air to the south it has to pull up first before we get into the warmer stuff, so it's gonna take awhile for a south wind to actually mean much of anything. Dew points are still 0-15 degrees in NC! Once we DO get all that cold air out of the way, though, that south wind is going to make quick work out of the changeover.

Have to have precip before you can have a changeover.

[Ellinwood]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Have to have precip before you can have a changeover.

The models are wrong. We will dryslot the whole event.

[mappy]

8 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

The models are wrong. We will dryslot the whole event.

Post more please.

[high risk]

24 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

I mean, yeah it's a south wind, but it's got a lot of cold air to the south it has to pull up first before we get into the warmer stuff, so it's gonna take awhile for a south wind to actually mean much of anything. Dew points are still 0-15 degrees in NC! Once we DO get all that cold air out of the way, though, that south wind is going to make quick work out of the changeover.

 

     agree fully.   without decent southerly sfc winds, we'd stay as freezing rain through most of the morning, but the warm advection will expedite the transition.   Of course, I think we'll need to get to 34 or so before the iciness disappears due to the antecedent cold roads and sidewalks.

[NorthArlington101]

Post more please.

It's unlikely for you but not impossible for the metro. HRRR is pretty dry other then rain and 3k NAM is/was also fairly dry.

[NorthArlington101]

Post more please.

It's unlikely for you but not impossible for the metro. HRRR is pretty dry other then rain and 3k NAM is/was also fairly dry.

[caviman2201]

Its getting pretty balmy over here by the water in Glen Burnie... my thermometer is reading 29... 

[yoda]

Still find it fascinating that while being a major outlier, the RGEM continues to bang away at the heavy ice accumulations for DC... 00z run has close to half inch of ice.  

Could the RGEM be overestimating the amount of moisture or underestimating the amount of dry air?  

[Jebman]

Freezing drizzle is breaking out.

Ground is very cold.

This is NO TIME for a jebwalk!

[CAPE]

Just woke up and looked out. Light dusting of snow. 28.

Not doing anything currently. By the time the "heavier" stuff arrives I expect some sleet and fr rain then quickly going to rain.

[Jebman]

Last night WAS Primo time for a jebwalk - and I wore only a tshirt in order to get the full effect.

The weather was breezy and truly refreshing, with ambient temps around 9 degrees with cool dewpoints in the mid to upper negative single digits. The wind was northerly at 15 to 25 mph.

It was a truly refreshing change!

[MDstorm]

A very brief period of snow.  Now moderate sleet.

 

MDstorm

[Jebman]

North central MD is getting moderate precip, probably snow, and if it persists, i see no reason why they cant accumulate at least 3-4 inches of snow. With the antecedent cold conditions - they have profound surface frigidization. Flakes will pile up, right from flake 1.

 

Get ready to pad up those stats, Marylanders! You just got one hell of a brand new casino, and now you have a brand new snowstorm, and the start of a kick ass snow season!

[Amped]

Finally changed over to sleet here,  had a good 3 second period of snow.

[lpaschall]

Sleet and snow  here in Westminster, 22

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, lpaschall said:

Sleet and snow  here in Westminster, 22

CONGRATS! Enjoy it!

[Ellinwood]

Hard to tell, but it looks like a sleet and freezing rain mix in Germantown as of 4am.

[Amped]

Sleet picking up. on Wundermap graphs you can see the dewpoint went up 10f in the last hour while the temp stayed level.

[CAPE]

After the earlier dusting of snow, had a brief period of sleet, and now freezing rain. Temp holding at 28.