Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

[DC2Winston]

24 degrees with juicy dewpoint of +4.  Downright tropical.

[psuhoffman]

58 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Have you all been checking the RGEM temp forecasts the past couple of days? It's been running too cold at the surface like everywhere. 

I fail to see how this is relevant to our wishcasting

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

      Bob, that's just labeling.   There is no parallel 4km nest;  the resolution is increased to 3km in the new version.   The NCEP site has no ability to change the labels on the parallel site without a special implementation, but mageval is showing the 3km nest.

 

Gotchya. The smart play is to hug the snowiest, iciest, coldest solution and toss anything else. I'll go with TT. 

[H2O]

25.9/5

temp hasn't budged

 

and bird dog whiskey with lemonade is tasty. Listening to Xmas music too

[Interstate]

18 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

    no way.    Look at Michigan.    Most of the state on TT is > 0.5", while only a county or two exceeds 0.5" on the NCEP site.     Similar discrepancy for PA.   And check out the max in southeast NJ:  1"+ on NCEP but 2"+ on TT.

 

I was just looking at our area.  I also see that TT scale is more defined as well... so that might have something to do with it as well

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

      Bob, that's just labeling.   There is no parallel 4km nest;  the resolution is increased to 3km in the new version.   The NCEP site has no ability to change the labels on the parallel site without a special implementation, but mageval is showing the 3km nest.

 

wxbell agrees with the NCEP site, TT must have something wrong in their map conversion

[high risk]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gotchya. The smart play is to hug the snowiest, iciest, coldest solution and toss anything else. I'll go with TT. 

 

    always hug the plots that basically have the model precip multiplied by 2.   

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

wxbell agrees with the NCEP site, TT must have something wrong in their map conversion

 

    thanks for confirming.    I'll see if I can get in touch with Levi at TT.

  

[psuhoffman]

I don't have much to add here.  As this has become more of an ice then snow/mixed event its really going to come down to surface temps and micro scale stuff.  As for where gets decent precip, the models all have the cutoff across our area and obviously north is favored but exactly where that sets up is a nowcast thing.  The only thing I will add is this is probably about expectations.  Everytime this happens some have this idea of some crazy ice event and that is just not going to happen.  But a tenth of an inch of ice can make travel a mess for a while.  It will be icy and some places could get a quarter inch of ice, maybe a half in northern areas, but unless your stupid and try to drive or run on it by early afternoon most of us will have no evidence anything ever happened.  Just have to keep expectations in line, and for those that have to drive early tomorrow it is a serious situation so dont take it too lightly, all it takes is a patch of ice to ruin your weekend.  If ice is your thing enjoy it.  We will see where the best precip sets up later tonight.  I am just rooting to get a burst of snow and maybe an inch or so before going to ice up here.  Enough for my son to see white and get excited in the morning. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

    thanks for confirming.    I'll see if I can get in touch with Levi at TT.

  

if it helps any the contours seem to be in the right places only they are all off by about .25 or so.  They are converting the qpf at too high a scale or something.

[Chase]

Training.

[DC2Winston]

What an uninspiring radar upstream. Was hoping to at least have a slug of Virga to track by this point. 

[nj2va]

12 degrees here. We look to be above freezing around 12z tomorrow based on current guidance. NWS saying 0.2-0.3" ice accretion here.

[WinterWxLuvr]

10 minutes ago, Chase said:

Training.

Virga trail

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

10 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

What an uninspiring radar upstream. Was hoping to at least have a slug of Virga to track by this point. 

Precipitation will basically almost develop overhead as that warm air rides over the cold....wasnt suppose to be anything to track really at this point and there probably wont be until about midnight

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

12 degrees here. We look to be above freezing around 12z tomorrow based on current guidance. NWS saying 0.2-0.3" ice accretion here.

Probably not until closer to 15z. Guidance has us all in the upper 20's at 12z. Surface cold almost always hangs a little longer than modeled. We're not starting with marginal temps either and It will be below freezing all the way into NC so even south winds won't make it a quick trip. 

[nj2va]

Probably not until closer to 15z. Guidance has us all in the upper 20's at 12z. Surface cold almost always hangs a little longer than modeled. We're not starting with marginal temps either and It will be below freezing all the way into NC so even south winds won't make it a quick trip. 

You'll hold onto the surface longer than me (I'm out in McHenry this weekend). HRRR has me near 40 by 14z. Still getting used to the climate here so I'm curious how the models do with surface cold here.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm not sure this anemic system can produce any precip 

[AmericanWxFreak]

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'm not sure this anemic system can produce any precip 

Like someone said above, it was never really supposed to show itself until it forms over our heads with the WAA

[87storms]

This cold shot was actually kinda nasty.  50 degree temps sounds pretty good.  We have plenty of time to get a snowstorm.  Season just started.

[H2O]

Temp slow creep up now

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, H2O said:

Temp slow creep up now

Doesn't feel that cold out. Ice storm weenies are always disappointed. 

[lpaschall]

Holding steady at 20 here winds from SE 4mph

[mappy]

22/5

[Stormpc]

I havent started drinking yet tonight but I do believe my radar hallucinating eyes detect the beginning of moistening column in western/central Virginia. DPs on the rise, south winds to 5 kts. Precip may break out an hour or so either side of midnight. I am most likely wrong. 

[Herb@MAWS]

Still looks like a lot of high clouds.  Not observing a low ceiling.  Temp has been a steady 23.2 for a few hours. 

[psuhoffman]

I haven't seen anyone post the SREF. We must be maturing as a regional forum. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

NAM is slightly wetter (here) and not as aggressive with the warm air push.

[das]

First flakes are falling at 4,800 ft. in the WV panhandle.  Temps have risen from 12F to 27F in the last 6 hours.

[Z-Cast]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I haven't seen anyone post the SREF. We must be maturing as a regional forum. 

The night is still young.