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Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

North Balti Zen

By North Balti Zen,
in Mid Atlantic

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12Z NAM looks fine for those with low expectations on 12/17... It's certainly close to not being awful. Need 850s not to run away quite to fast.

Speaking of low expectations, look at this year's 12/17 forecast as a vast improvement on last year.  DCA had a max/min of 58/38 and a dreary 0.42" of rain on that date last December.  Then we all know how the following week after that went.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
Just now, high risk said:

12z NAM has a nice slug of precip early Saturday.    We lose the 850's pretty fast, but it would still be maybe 1-2" for a lot of people.   The surface warms up FAST too, but areas north and west would likely see a healthy ice accumulation if this solution is correct. 

But it's probably wrong.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, high risk said:

12z NAM has a nice slug of precip early Saturday.    We lose the 850's pretty fast, but it would still be maybe 1-2" for a lot of people.   The surface warms up FAST too, but areas north and west would likely see a healthy ice accumulation if this solution is correct. 

I think we should take this and run...

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z NAM shows 2-3 inches... we buy

As soon as I take back my being happy with the run you say that, haha. Maybe rates would overcome, but 850s seem to be trending in the wrong direction. 

 

PKqm9vp.gif

This is supposed to be a .gif, if it's not working its showing the 850s creeping away every new run.

 

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
Go for it... connect four!

I mean...  the TT maps are awesomely... silly.  Mappy would pwn us all in the snow department if 06z GFS was correct for Sunday into Monday



Per Cobb, 4.3 before the flip to frza. That's for Westminster, so I guess I could see more...
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

LWX disco from this morning for Friday night into Saturday morning

Quote 

Strengthening warm air advection pattern Fri night due to
intensifying low-level jet of up to 70kt will lead to a wintry mix
Fri night into Sat morning. Some differences in thermal
profiles/p-types show up between GFS and ECMWF, but both agree sfc
temps will be well below freezing for a wintry mix. The GFS is
colder aloft suggesting more SN/IP while ECMWF is warmer aloft
suggesting more of an ice threat. Expect we`ll be eventually
issuing winter wx advisories for all counties in our CWA including
St. Marys county. By 18Z Sat, most places should have risen above
freezing and change to all rain except right along the Mason-Dixon
line where cold air may hang tougher.
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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

They have been consistently bad for days.

Can we pull a miracle in the last 24 hours?  Never say never, especially with cold air in place.

The problem now is the cold air is probably well modeled at this point. The only upside surprise chance I see is a faster onset. WAA can move in quicker than modeled and adjustments there are certainly in the realm. There is overwhelming data now that the column is shot by 12z for snow except maybe the far NE. 

Even though WAA can start faster than modeled it's also prone to flip faster too so I'm not sure there is much upside to what we are seeing at this point in the snow dept. 

Ice in the NW zones is probably the biggest threat. I never do well with ice so I don't really care much in that dept. 

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