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Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

North Balti Zen

By North Balti Zen,
in Mid Atlantic

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mappy

mappy

Posted
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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Wasn't there a storm a little while ago that the GGEM/RGEM had a ice to rain scenario and we ended up getting a good amount of ice... it was a night to day storm... pretty sure it was either in Jan/Feb within the past 5 years

feb 2014? lost power with that one. was definitely a northern areas storm though. 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Wasn't there a storm a little while ago that the GGEM/RGEM had a ice to rain scenario and we ended up getting a good amount of ice... it was a night to day storm... pretty sure it was either in Jan/Feb within the past 5 years

Feb 2014 I believe.  I volunteer with a fire department in Carroll County and we got slammed with wires, wrecks, chimney fires and transformer fires.  Parts of Manchester, Lineboro, Pleasant Valley, Thurmont and Parkton got nearly an inch of ice.  Carroll County 911 received 6 times their daily call volume in under 6 hours I believe.

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high risk

high risk

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3 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

In these scenarios, the higher resolution runs almost always verify more often.

 

     Yes, I think it's telling that the operational NAM nest (4 km), the parallel NAM nest (3 km), and the HRRR all show limited precip across DC Metro through mid-morning.   That said, even a little bit of freezing rain with the cold surfaces will cause problems.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

 

     Yes, I think it's telling that the operational NAM nest (4 km), the parallel NAM nest (3 km), and the HRRR all show limited precip across DC Metro through mid-morning.   That said, even a little bit of freezing rain with the cold surfaces will cause problems.

True, and the time of day/night is favorable for least impacts for most people with the exception of the lesser of my generation.  Can you request the fire nest to run? lol

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yoda

yoda

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Just now, high risk said:

 

     Yes, I think it's telling that the operational NAM nest (4 km), the parallel NAM nest (3 km), and the HRRR all show limited precip across DC Metro through mid-morning.   That said, even a little bit of freezing rain with the cold surfaces will cause problems.

How much weight do you put on the RGEM being an outlier but being consistent the past few runs?

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mappy

mappy

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

That's a verrrry interesting looking precip map. I do wonder if that'll even come close to verifying. Regardless - looks pretty icy for you!

if it's correct. GFS wasn't nearly as gung-ho on the precip/ice amounts. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

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2 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

What are the odds for even a little snow TV in the district at this point?

I'd settle for a quick trace before the flip with ground frozen.  Immediate stickage...

Having lived in the region for 20 years under this type scenario I 'd say almost zero...it wiill be 4 am and stilll no precipitation south of BWI don't care what the RGEM says...this is a N MD and north show

 

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