Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Where's PSU?

He wrote 100,000 words on this topic the last 5 days and now the trends are better and he is MIA. I would love to see his input as well.

Road surfaces are about as cold as you can get in this region. Add low UV from today's clouds, darkness of night and low dew points spells trouble for late/overnight.

Sorry, Friday's are crazy busy work days for me, not much time to really look at stuff, I was just making a quick scan of the thread to update myself.  I am also not a big fan of ice but I will post this evening when I have a second to actually look at guidance and make an informed post.

[WinterWxLuvr]

18 minutes ago, UVVmet84 said:

My bus is getting more fuel late in the game. 

You're a little late to the party, pal.

And there is no bus.  There's only a broken down go-cart.

[yoda]

15 minutes ago, H2O said:

i'll see myself out

Don't slip and slide away

[cae]

RGEM ensemble for DC

[Interstate]

I still believe LWX will turn the WSW into WWA... 

[stormtracker]

38 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

FWIW, NWS zone forecast doesn't even mention SN- any longer in 20008 overnight.  Straight to sleet/frz rain.  Nasty.

20008,  Holla!  

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

I still believe LWX will turn the WSW into WWA... 

They just did... .1 to .2 tenths of an inch of ice in their WWA... around .1 in DC region...

I think they are going to be a bit low on that front but we shall see

[NorthArlington101]

I still believe LWX will turn the WSW into WWA... 

And I think they might have to expand it outwards! Looking icy out there.

[NorthArlington101]

I still believe LWX will turn the WSW into WWA... 

And I think they might have to expand it outwards! Looking icy out there.

[Interstate]

Just now, yoda said:

They just did... .1 to .2 tenths of an inch of ice in their WWA... around .1 in DC region...

Now the only thing they would up it to is an Ice Storm Warning

[eurojosh]

Hrrrrrrrrr is dry as a bone...

[yoda]

Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Now the only thing they would up it to is an Ice Storm Warning

 

It would be a Winter Storm Warning because of the threat of sleet/snow in the very beginning

[Interstate]

Just now, yoda said:

 

It would be a Winter Storm Warning because of the threat of sleet/snow in the very beginning

Nah... because by the time they did it... there would only be Freezing Rain

[Interstate]

It is nice to get our first WWA region wide.

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

They just did... .1 to .2 tenths of an inch of ice in their WWA... around .1 in DC region...

I think they are going to be a bit low on that front but we shall see

Sounds dead on. Ice is overhyped.

[mappy]

22 hours ago, mappy said:

also -- that WSW will become an advisory by saturday morning. 

called it. was off on the timing. 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

It would be a Winter Storm Warning because of the threat of sleet/snow in the very beginning

Once the precip flips, I believe it can be changed in situ to a ISW, but that's rare.

[Ji]

36 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

20008,  Holla!  

its as dry as a marcus ..season is upon us

[yoda]

24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Once the precip flips, I believe it can be changed in situ to a ISW, but that's rare.

Actually no I don't think so... I have asked this question before to the NWS LWX mets via twitter and they said if there is any chance of sleet and/or snow its automatically a WSW and cannot be changed to ISW

[Eskimo Joe]

Garrett County has an ice storm warning...probably gonna be some legit power outage issues west of I-81.

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Actually no I don't think so... I have asked this question before to the NWS LWX mets via twitter and they said if there is any chance of sleet and/or snow its automatically a WSW and cannot be changed to ISW

He means it can be changed if the precip has already switched over and is entirely ice. Which I cannot verify but I would bank on him knowing given his professional background. 

You are right though ahead of the storm. I don't know which of you is right but frankly I'm not sure it matters a ton

[yoda]

I dunno if the atmosphere is saturated by then, but by 02z SAT snow is overspreading the region with freezing rain by 05z across the DC area... DC reaches 32 around 15z

This is 18z NAM btw

[WinterWxLuvr]

Not making a statement regarding impact, but the NAM has another tick south with the precip.

[BTRWx]

52 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

Hrrrrrrrrr is dry as a bone...

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not making a statement regarding impact, but the NAM has another tick south with the precip.

Noticed this as well. Every run from all models has done this today. OTOH- I wouldn't be surprised if the RGEM backs off on totals. 

[BTRWx]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Noticed this as well. Every run from all models has done this today. OTOH- I wouldn't be surprised if the RGEM backs off on totals. 

Time for us to all learn to be more conservative.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not making a statement regarding impact, but the NAM has another tick south with the precip.

It sure looks like it.  You can especially see that heavier amounts get more into north central/northeast MD.  But as you say, not sure of the overall change in the impact.

[yoda]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Noticed this as well. Every run from all models has done this today. OTOH- I wouldn't be surprised if the RGEM backs off on totals. 

I actually be surprised if the RGEM backs off... its actually has been pretty consistent the past few runs I believe

[Bob Chill]

Of course the 2 other nam brothers back off on precip through 15z. lol. Chasing ghosts. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Couple of ticks here any there can make a big impact with ice, especially when it's overnight into very early morning.  It's really important to remember that ice storms *generally* don't pan out in our neck of the woods.  Even so, this is a setup that has a couple of items working in our favor in that we have a fresh air mass, precip falling at night and the surfaces are chilly.