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Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

North Balti Zen

By North Balti Zen,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2016 at 6:12 PM, Stormpc said:

Where's PSU?

He wrote 100,000 words on this topic the last 5 days and now the trends are better and he is MIA. I would love to see his input as well.

Road surfaces are about as cold as you can get in this region. Add low UV from today's clouds, darkness of night and low dew points spells trouble for late/overnight.

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Sorry, Friday's are crazy busy work days for me, not much time to really look at stuff, I was just making a quick scan of the thread to update myself.  I am also not a big fan of ice but I will post this evening when I have a second to actually look at guidance and make an informed post.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2016 at 7:26 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Once the precip flips, I believe it can be changed in situ to a ISW, but that's rare.

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Actually no I don't think so... I have asked this question before to the NWS LWX mets via twitter and they said if there is any chance of sleet and/or snow its automatically a WSW and cannot be changed to ISW

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
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  On 12/16/2016 at 7:56 PM, yoda said:

Actually no I don't think so... I have asked this question before to the NWS LWX mets via twitter and they said if there is any chance of sleet and/or snow its automatically a WSW and cannot be changed to ISW

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He means it can be changed if the precip has already switched over and is entirely ice. Which I cannot verify but I would bank on him knowing given his professional background. 

You are right though ahead of the storm. I don't know which of you is right but frankly I'm not sure it matters a ton ;)

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2016 at 8:06 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not making a statement regarding impact, but the NAM has another tick south with the precip.

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It sure looks like it.  You can especially see that heavier amounts get more into north central/northeast MD.  But as you say, not sure of the overall change in the impact.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

Couple of ticks here any there can make a big impact with ice, especially when it's overnight into very early morning.  It's really important to remember that ice storms *generally* don't pan out in our neck of the woods.  Even so, this is a setup that has a couple of items working in our favor in that we have a fresh air mass, precip falling at night and the surfaces are chilly.

 

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