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Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

North Balti Zen

By North Balti Zen,
in Mid Atlantic

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
Just now, WhiteoutMD said:

The start time I think is the biggest question I have. The earlier it starts the better we all do.  Whats everyone's feeling on that part of this?  I think is starts at 3-5 am metro dc. W

Warm air advection waits for no man.  Thinking it starts 12 am - 3 am.  Sneaky couple hours of all snow for everyone before it flips.  

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said:

The start time I think is the biggest question I have. The earlier it starts the better we all do.  Whats everyone's feeling on that part of this?  I think is starts at 3-5 am metro dc. W

Last I saw, LWX was going for very late tonight or pre-dawn, so yeah, I guess 3-5AM-ish.

As a side note, check out the wide expanse of warnings/advisories/watches on the NWS page right now, they cover from about Idaho to the East Coast!

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

The start time I think is the biggest question I have. The earlier it starts the better we all do.  Whats everyone's feeling on that part of this?  I think is starts at 3-5 am metro dc. W

My question is when does it end.  I'm actually thinking we might get a dry afternoon?  And mild?

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ji said:

you would of thought that the RGEM would fold by now but its gettting wetter. Weird

GFS shifted south a little bit. Especially with the heavier stuff to our north. But not even close to the RGEM. Normally I would toss the RGEM in a split second but the fact that it keeps trending wetter at very short range is not normally how the RGEM busts. 

If you compare the 3k (or any nam) to 6z, all shifted the heaviest axis south. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS shifted south a little bit. Especially with the heavier stuff to our north. But not even close to the RGEM. Normally I would toss the RGEM in a split second but the fact that it keeps trending wetter at very short range is not normally how the RGEM busts. 

If you compare the 3k (or any nam) to 6z, all shifted the heaviest axis south. 

Perhaps recognizing the depth of teh cold air?

And yes, RGEM is a bit worrisome

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Exactly why we don't cheer for ice.

I despise ice. Luckily I don't get much of it here. Surface cold scours out quick in most cases unless there is a legit high and CAD.

For this event its pretty clear there will be little to no snow anywhere, so freezing rain is the main issue. Places up in N MD especially could see a few hours of icing before low level temps rise, but in this type of set up its not likely to be a prolonged icing.

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I despise ice. Luckily I don't get much of it here. Surface cold scours out quick in most cases unless there is a legit high and CAD.

For this event its pretty clear there will be little to no snow anywhere, so freezing rain is the main issue. Places up in N MD especially could see a few hours of icing before low level temps rise, but in this type of set up its not likely to be a prolonged icing.

ice keeps drinks cold.  love ice

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Herb@MAWS

Herb@MAWS

Posted
Posted

Worst fears are being realized.  It was overcast for a while but sun is burning thru the overcast now, allowing temps to slowly rise.  This seems to happen a lot with these set-ups (overcast. then back to sun).  It'll be U20's to 30 by day's end at this rate, and then little decrease of temps by the time the real overcast spreads over us.

Every time I look at thermometer now, it's going up a few tenths of a degree.  (yeah, I know: then stop looking at thermometer!)

19.1 at 10:45 after morning low of 12.  Sun is out again 

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