Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

[North Balti Zen]

I know doom and gloom is the prevailing sentiment, but this would be a decent little December event if we can get an inch of snow and then some ice on top of it.

[mappy]

link for Cobb outputs

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=w54

you will need to put in the proper airport code. w54 = westminster 

[showmethesnow]

Fairly widespread slug of moisture coming through the mountains now. Mostly virga but wouldn't be surprised if someone sees a few flakes with the heavier returns in a few hours.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Fairly widespread slug of moisture coming through the mountains now. Mostly virga but wouldn't be surprised if someone sees a few flakes with the heavier returns in a few hours.

 

Hope you're right but I doubt any of that makes it across.

[showmethesnow]

11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Hope you're right but I doubt any of that makes it across.

Yeah, the mountains will take its toll. Expect we will see it dry up somewhat on the lee side but would not be surprised to see it redevelop a little farther east of the descending air where we should get some lift.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

When I punch this link in I get a different configuration laid out on my screen  then your above post. I wonder if it's just my android phone . Or did you pull certain lines and group them together? 

just took a screenshot of the hours. 

I have noticed when looking at cobb on mobile (or on my ipad) it doesn't always load properly. 

[PhineasC]

Freezing rain at 29-31 degrees with temps rising never gets me excited. I would expect to be underwhelmed.

[BristowWx]

At least the sun angle is optimum...that's about it

[dallen7908]

Handrails, log tops,  and elevated sidewalks will be treacherous

[WinterWxLuvr]

Have to disagree with my fellow posters this time. 

The ground and roads are well below freezing.  This time, you could get freezing rain without freezing temps.

If we get upwards of 0.2" of precip early, it's going to be a mess.  The best thing, modeled, is a quick warmup.

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Have to disagree with my fellow posters this time. 

The ground and roads are well below freezing.  This time, you could get freezing rain without freezing temps.

If we get upwards of 0.2" of precip early, it's going to be a mess.  The best thing, modeled, is a quick warmup.

Agreed... even when the air temp gets above 32... it will take some time for the ground to get above 32.

[dallen7908]

One key could be whether it starts as snow, sleet, or freezing rain. 

[H2O]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Have to disagree with my fellow posters this time. 

The ground and roads are well below freezing.  This time, you could get freezing rain without freezing temps.

If we get upwards of 0.2" of precip early, it's going to be a mess.  The best thing, modeled, is a quick warmup.

 

3 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Agreed... even when the air temp gets above 32... it will take some time for the ground to get above 32.

That happened in the 90s one time.  A few days of below 32 and then it warmed quick one morning with very light showers.  Hit right at rush hour and the quick flash freeze before the ground warmed made driving at work very slippery

[das]

19 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Agreed... even when the air temp gets above 32... it will take some time for the ground to get above 32.

Yup, especially if there is a little snow/sleet on the ground.  Cold 2m temps can be hard to scour out.  0.5m temps down below the primary effects of the wind even more so when there is some snow/ice over top of very cold, frozen ground.

[Bob Chill]

RGEM is obviously the highest impact but it stands alone. However, the NAM brothers shifted the heaviest precip axis south from their 6z runs but still nothing like the RGEM with the .5 line south of DC. WAA precip can be tricky sometimes. It wouldn't surprise me if all models trend south a little. 

ETA:

Comparing the .5 line @ 15z on the last 2 rgem runs, it trended south as well. If 12z holds then things get a little more interesting. 

[poolz1]

15.2 at the house currently with a solid cloud deck....if clouds hold the rest of the day, our starting point temp is going to be lower.  Like most here, my expectations are extremely low but it won't keep me from watching the radar later today with the hope that the models are underestimating the overrunning.

[AmericanWxFreak]

45 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Freezing rain at 29-31 degrees with temps rising never gets me excited. I would expect to be underwhelmed.

Are you forgetting the temps over the last 30 hours?

[das]

9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

15.2 at the house currently with a solid cloud deck....if clouds hold the rest of the day, our starting point temp is going to be lower.

LWX just dropped expected high temps by 3F in the grids for today.

[mitchnick]

as exciting as the radar may be, no station any where near us is reporting precip reaching the ground as of 9AM

[mappy]

that ice  

[das]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

as exciting as the radar may be, no station any where near us is reporting precip reaching the ground as of 9AM

Yup.  For those excited by the returns to the west, here's a high res streaming web cam up at 4,800 ft. right under those returns.  Nary a flake.

https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/snowshoe-village-live-cam

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, das said:

Yup.  For those excited by the returns to the west, here's a high res streaming web cam up at 4,800 ft. right under those returns.  Nary a flake.

https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/snowshoe-village-live-cam

Yeah, that was a sucker radar.

[NorthArlington101]

RGEM looks relatively high impact again.

[Ji]

40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

RGEM is obviously the highest impact but it stands alone. However, the NAM brothers shifted the heaviest precip axis south from their 6z runs but still nothing like the RGEM with the .5 line south of DC. WAA precip can be tricky sometimes. It wouldn't surprise me if all models trend south a little. 

ETA:

Comparing the .5 line @ 15z on the last 2 rgem runs, it trended south as well. If 12z holds then things get a little more interesting. 

I know nobodys talking about it but i think this event may rival the Jan 2016 blizzard in terms of cloud cover

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I know nobodys talking about it but i think this event may rival the Jan 2016 blizzard in terms of cloud cover

No to mention it will destroy the ice and rain totals from that event. 

[NorthArlington101]

42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

RGEM is obviously the highest impact but it stands alone. However, the NAM brothers shifted the heaviest precip axis south from their 6z runs but still nothing like the RGEM with the .5 line south of DC. WAA precip can be tricky sometimes. It wouldn't surprise me if all models trend south a little. 

ETA:

Comparing the .5 line @ 15z on the last 2 rgem runs, it trended south as well. If 12z holds then things get a little more interesting. 

 

RGEM is super duper wet.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

RGEM looks relatively high impact again.

 

Wow...that's pretty aggressive on the ice even around the metro areas.  The NAM looks similar, from what Mappy showed above, too.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I know nobodys talking about it but i think this event may rival the Jan 2016 blizzard in terms of cloud cover

Now that's some seriously funny trolling!

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No to mention it will destroy the ice and rain totals from that event. 

LOL and both storms were modeled pretty well a week or so out. The similarities are haunting

[Eskimo Joe]

I love mornings like this.  Classic winter storm look...really pains me not to have blocking.  This would've been epic.