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Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

North Balti Zen

By North Balti Zen,
in Mid Atlantic

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2016 at 1:41 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Hope you're right but I doubt any of that makes it across.

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Yeah, the mountains will take its toll. Expect we will see it dry up somewhat on the lee side but would not be surprised to see it redevelop a little farther east of the descending air where we should get some lift.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2016 at 1:51 PM, losetoa6 said:

When I punch this link in I get a different configuration laid out on my screen  then your above post. I wonder if it's just my android phone . Or did you pull certain lines and group them together? 

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just took a screenshot of the hours. 

I have noticed when looking at cobb on mobile (or on my ipad) it doesn't always load properly. 

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2016 at 2:02 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Have to disagree with my fellow posters this time. 

The ground and roads are well below freezing.  This time, you could get freezing rain without freezing temps.

If we get upwards of 0.2" of precip early, it's going to be a mess.  The best thing, modeled, is a quick warmup.

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Agreed... even when the air temp gets above 32... it will take some time for the ground to get above 32.

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2016 at 2:02 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Have to disagree with my fellow posters this time. 

The ground and roads are well below freezing.  This time, you could get freezing rain without freezing temps.

If we get upwards of 0.2" of precip early, it's going to be a mess.  The best thing, modeled, is a quick warmup.

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  On 12/16/2016 at 2:03 PM, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Agreed... even when the air temp gets above 32... it will take some time for the ground to get above 32.

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That happened in the 90s one time.  A few days of below 32 and then it warmed quick one morning with very light showers.  Hit right at rush hour and the quick flash freeze before the ground warmed made driving at work very slippery

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das

das

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2016 at 2:03 PM, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Agreed... even when the air temp gets above 32... it will take some time for the ground to get above 32.

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Yup, especially if there is a little snow/sleet on the ground.  Cold 2m temps can be hard to scour out.  0.5m temps down below the primary effects of the wind even more so when there is some snow/ice over top of very cold, frozen ground.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

RGEM is obviously the highest impact but it stands alone. However, the NAM brothers shifted the heaviest precip axis south from their 6z runs but still nothing like the RGEM with the .5 line south of DC. WAA precip can be tricky sometimes. It wouldn't surprise me if all models trend south a little. 

ETA:

Comparing the .5 line @ 15z on the last 2 rgem runs, it trended south as well. If 12z holds then things get a little more interesting. 

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted

15.2 at the house currently with a solid cloud deck....if clouds hold the rest of the day, our starting point temp is going to be lower.  Like most here, my expectations are extremely low but it won't keep me from watching the radar later today with the hope that the models are underestimating the overrunning.

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das

das

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2016 at 2:52 PM, mitchnick said:

as exciting as the radar may be, no station any where near us is reporting precip reaching the ground as of 9AM

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Yup.  For those excited by the returns to the west, here's a high res streaming web cam up at 4,800 ft. right under those returns.  Nary a flake.

https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/snowshoe-village-live-cam

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2016 at 2:35 PM, Bob Chill said:

RGEM is obviously the highest impact but it stands alone. However, the NAM brothers shifted the heaviest precip axis south from their 6z runs but still nothing like the RGEM with the .5 line south of DC. WAA precip can be tricky sometimes. It wouldn't surprise me if all models trend south a little. 

ETA:

Comparing the .5 line @ 15z on the last 2 rgem runs, it trended south as well. If 12z holds then things get a little more interesting. 

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I know nobodys talking about it but i think this event may rival the Jan 2016 blizzard in terms of cloud cover

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2016 at 2:35 PM, Bob Chill said:

RGEM is obviously the highest impact but it stands alone. However, the NAM brothers shifted the heaviest precip axis south from their 6z runs but still nothing like the RGEM with the .5 line south of DC. WAA precip can be tricky sometimes. It wouldn't surprise me if all models trend south a little. 

ETA:

Comparing the .5 line @ 15z on the last 2 rgem runs, it trended south as well. If 12z holds then things get a little more interesting. 

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RGEM is super duper wet.

 

w13Guab.jpg

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