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Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

North Balti Zen

By North Balti Zen,
in Mid Atlantic

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

While the chances for snow now appear to be gone, and the overall QPF looks much less than had been modeled in days past, this event still has potential to cause a lot of problems early Saturday.    Freezing rain looks to be the dominant precip type for several hours, and road surfaces will be plenty cold as the event begins.    Very glad this is not going to occur on a weekday.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, high risk said:

While the chances for snow now appear to be gone, and the overall QPF looks much less than had been modeled in days past, this event still has potential to cause a lot of problems early Saturday.    Freezing rain looks to be the dominant precip type for several hours, and road surfaces will be plenty cold as the event begins.    Very glad this is not going to occur on a weekday.

Looks like .1-.2" QPF of ice... saturday morning could be intresting driving

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WVclimo

WVclimo

Posted
Posted

Winter Storm Watch for the northern tier of counties: 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EST THU DEC 15 2016

MDZ003>006-502-507-VAZ028-WVZ050>053-504-160400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.161217T0500Z-161217T1700Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-NORTHWEST HARFORD-FREDERICK VA-
HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-EASTERN MINERAL-
251 PM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...WINTRY MIX INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATION...POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER INCH OF FREEZING RAIN
  ALONG WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET.

* TIMING...LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE WINTRY MIX WITH A
  FROZEN GROUND.

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...MID 20S RISING INTO THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&
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Yeoman

Yeoman

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, high risk said:

While the chances for snow now appear to be gone, and the overall QPF looks much less than had been modeled in days past, this event still has potential to cause a lot of problems early Saturday.    Freezing rain looks to be the dominant precip type for several hours, and road surfaces will be plenty cold as the event begins.    Very glad this is not going to occur on a weekday.

There is certainly enough brine on the roads from the two events that didn't amount to raindrop, let alone a snowflake.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Are we in a Nina though?  It's been 2 weeks but last I checked the ENSO was almost dead neutral, I think it was like -.3, honestly thats about as neutral as you can get, and the SOI was averaging slightly on the Nino side of neutral actually.  I think we are looking at an enso neutral year here, not saying that really helps us any, but not sure we can blame nina for this one.

ETA:  also snowfall in one specific location can miss the larger pattern, in 95 BWI had little snow before the blizzard but up here was already around 20" going into January.  Even where I lived near Dulles VA that year we had several decent 2-4" type snows in November and December that year that just missed the actual cities.  This feels very different.  I would be much more optimistic if the cities were missing but there was at least snow in the area.  That bodes better for the winter on a whole. 

I've said in prior posts that it's not technically reached a NINA, but you and I know that ENSO 3.4 has been in NINA territory since mid-July per cpc's weekly numbers. Thus, give it a little more time and it will likely be official, or so close to an official NINA that the atmosphere won't know it. In light of these facts, I believe it appropriate/fair to gauge this  season as a NINA for all practical purposes. WRT my reference of 12/95, it wasn't only BWI that failed to reach normal, it was BWI, IAD and DCA. I mean I know it's been frustrating, but my whole point was that we shouldn't expect a whole lot this month in light of ENSO and what we've experienced over the past 5 days is typical NINA modeling. I said earlier in this thread or the LR one, BWI reaches normal snow this month, but I don't see it exceeding it by much short of a fluke. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I've said in prior posts that it's not technically reached a NINA, but you and I know that ENSO 3.4 has been in NINA territory since mid-July per cpc's weekly numbers. Thus, give it a little more time and it will likely be official, or so close to an official NINA that the atmosphere won't know it. In light of these facts, I believe it appropriate/fair to gauge this  season as a NINA for all practical purposes. WRT my reference of 12/95, it wasn't only BWI that failed to reach normal, it was BWI, IAD and DCA. I mean I know it's been frustrating, but my whole point was that we shouldn't expect a whole lot this month in light of ENSO and what we've experienced over the past 5 days is typical NINA modeling. I said earlier in this thread or the LR one, BWI reaches normal snow this month, but I don't see it exceeding it by much short of a fluke. 

I just don't think the current sst or soi are negative enough to have that much influence. I think what we are seeing is what's typical in a fast flow with long wavelengths and no blocking. Systems racing across and a tendency to cut, especially this time of year. Ironically when we had just a tad of nao help we had one decent track a couple weeks ago but had no cold to work with. The pattern certainly has some similarities no a Niña one with fast flow and cutters but maybe we would be better off right now I'm a Niña as often Decembers are pretty good in a Niña. I attribute the problem more to those other factors. But you could be right i don't claim to know for sure. 

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